Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Dec 30, 2006.

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  1. Ezzy

    Ezzy

    OK, another question. The first is a dip in a downtrend, into an FTT. So we're heading up now. The 2nd dip doesn't quite have the soup bowl going on but by the price action it's a dip - again into an FTT. Change again. Is that the right read?
     
    #4471     Jun 24, 2007
  2. Make sure you email support about the volume pane problem, the more complaints they receive the more likely they are too accelerate a fix ( I suppose...).

    Meanwhile I keep the Backup Settings dialog open and click on Backup ... Right Now whenever I get nervous about the gaussians disappearing. If it's just part of one day, though, it's probably easier to just redo the gaussians.
     
    #4472     Jun 24, 2007
  3. Pepe

    Pepe

    Hi Bundle,

    Thank you for your answer. Yes, you're right. Although, this was developed having in mind how one will answer the 81 answers for every bar of the trading day :)

    I tried to put in this matrix what I usually say in each bar for 'Continuation' and 'Change'. For instance, Friday, I added the "Intrabar Gaussian shift", as usually for me Incr different color of the trend usually have meant I was seeing a different Trend, or that it could be a Stall being developed. Now, it can also be a 'Intrabar Gaussian shift'. Next time I see incr Red in a Up trend I will be expecting one of this three possibilities to unfold.

    This is not a set of "IF...Then…Else" rules, but think at this, as a way to put the mind with the correct bias ('Change'/'Continuation') for what could be happening next, and also to give a list of possibilities to expect.

    Of course, with practice and experience, this will not be necessary because this will be down cold in one's mind.

    Best Regards
     
    #4473     Jun 24, 2007
  4. Yes.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #4474     Jun 25, 2007
  5. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    I am following this thread with great interest. It is THE BEST thread on ET by far and will stay this way for while. The method is detailed and discussed so good that it will draw a lot of people over the years.

    I was thinking this weekend about self fulfilling prophecy of when too many people start using a method it will halt to work. Let’s say we have 300 people who perfect this method and gradually build up their size to 50 contracts.

    Since the time fractal is the same for everyone, everybody will get the same signal and will try to act upon it. We are talking execution of 15,000 contracts at the same time. Does it worry anyone?

    Thanks,
    redduke
     
    #4475     Jun 25, 2007
  6. FALSE! You can get sextuplets and they still will defer on action... The execution time will be normally distributed at best... And honestly, if you had that problem, you go to a different fractal, asset, market, etc...
     
    #4476     Jun 25, 2007
  7. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1510684>
     
    #4477     Jun 25, 2007
  8. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    But we all see an FTT, BO or FBO approximately at the same time on 5 min ES chart. The wall will be eaten at the same time for all of us, so the best potential entry will not be there for everybody. Of course there are other markets, but we are all taking about ES here, and my question is in relation to ES only.
     
    #4478     Jun 25, 2007
  9. You are putting the horse before the cart Duke. I suspect that the number of people who will end up trading 50 contracts will not be enough to move the markets. I think the statistics that apply to overall trading will also apply to those attempting to master this method. Very few people are emotioally equipped to trade successfully.
     
    #4479     Jun 25, 2007
  10. Pr0crast

    Pr0crast Guest

    Awesome, awesome morning.
     
    #4480     Jun 25, 2007
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