Yes - this is what first made me look deeper into what Jack had written compared to your recent posts, as I know his stuff pertains to the overall trend development not just pairs of bars or intra-bar reversals. Me too. Wouldn't it be neat though if we nail it down, finally, here on this thread? LOL! (good natured chuckle). This is exactly the thought that occurred to me when I saw you were re-naming double tops, reversal spikes and laterals in terms of harmonics - what does it add by classifying it in these terms? Do you see that you have only re-named a phenomena we were already aware of - no new insight is gained (so far). (Unless Iâve missed something.) This is a pretty important point: 1. does the analysis of the underlying harmonics (specifically A/D action) help me understand what is going on? 2. does it help me anticipate what is coming next? 3. is it actionable in a timely manner so I can profit from it? I'm sure Jack would answer these questions with a resounding "Yes". Like you, I am still grappling with how this all adds anything to the money making process. One important aspect of how it helps, I think, is in improving the trader's EQ - he has more support, comfort and confidence if he knows the market's mode (objectively) at any time. That's an intangible benefit which is worth dollars to any trader. Your approach, which clearly and demonstrably works exceptionally well, is the What happens stuff. Jack is explaining How and Why the market moves as it does. What happens is sufficient to make tons of money, the other levels of knowledge (How and Why) add further confidence (and perhaps transferable confidence). Exactly, that is what is demonstrated in those examples, and Jack talks of retraces that you reverse into and those you hold through (or sideline the lateral until P3). One example of where it is of benefit is when the pace is slow, volume is down and you are just coming out of dry up into a breakout. A/D gives the heads up. Iâm sure Jack can point to others. Yes. It's actually pretty cool to get a description of trend behaviour built up from a handful of simple cyclical functions super-posed on a signal carrier wave. Of course, there is nothing new in this, but where Jack takes it further is using the resulting market modes to eliminate all that cannot happen next so he is left with only what will happen. This is the context stuff which goes beyond pairs of bars or intra-bar analysis. Which we could already identify without 1. knowing what causes them or 2. naming them. I don't claim to be able to help you make more money . My intention rather was to correct some misconceptions on this thread about what Jack had said regarding harmonics and any perception that he had somehow got it wrong or was deliberately misleading. This exercise has helped me learn what we do and don't know of Jack's view on the cyclical nature of markets. You've met the guy - didn't this stuff come up? I really hope Jack adds some thoughts here - it would be ironic if he misses this dialogue after putting in so much effort on all those other threads. Glad to see Banjo has dropped in. Thanks Spyder, sorry for the slow response â I was enjoying the weekend.
Why yes, it sure would. You've touched on an important point here, and one which fits perfectly with Jack's style of posts. Much of what Jack has written involves 'describing the ballpark' to the trader, rather than, providing instructions on 'swinging the bat.' However, having a positive EQ certainly makes one more comfortable (when swinging) if one does know everything about the 'ballpark' in which one plays. Another good point. I have intentionally avoided taking the Harmonics discussion beyond Bar pairs at this time (as it was an off-syllabus item), but I can tell you the same definitions I used in my posts, also work Intra-bar (on the tic level), as well as within the trends (and those trends can also range from Tic level charts to yearly charts and everywhere in between). They work on every fractal (and also every time frame) which leads me to believe we may have only scratched the surface on this item. If I gave the impression my views only revolved around Bar pairs, I apologize for the confusion. I 'see' your Square Even as a trend and a lateral where the lateral (because it starts and ends on a trend line) requires my attention (point of change) in order to determine continuation or change (hold or reverse) depending on one's resolution level. Whereas, with the triangular wave, I see trend, turn, trend (Continuation, Change, Continuation). Perhaps, its just the way I view things. Unfortunately, many people couldn't. Awe dude, and I had such high hopes too. Something tells me Jack will be brewing up a multi-page post to provide some clarity. Believe it or not, this discussion did arise after I left Tucson in January. At that time (and prior to then) I simply didn't see the need for a thorough understanding as I certainly didn't feel my lack of understanding created any deleterious effects on my trading. I basically 'walled Harmonics off' and left it sitting on the sidelines. Only after Jack's recent post (and Bearbelly's request for clarity) did I head out to the library (and onto the web) to educate myself. My discovery of how waveforms worked on a bar to bar basis combined with the ability to expand outward and inward (tic charts to lateral channels), with respect to differentiation of continuation or change, allowed me to pinpoint to others where someone might want to focus their attention at key points in the day. Me too. No need to apologize. - Spydertrader
Spydertrader, I have a question about odd harmonics double top/bottoms. I've just been trading it when it forms on the ES. Is it safe to trade using that method on the YM too? I've seen situations where it works on the YM and when it doesn't. So I'm guessing it has a much lower success rate compared to using the method on ES. Just wanted your opinion on the subject, thanks.
EOD - For where I'm at in the learning curve, found the 1320-1520 time to be undoable. So I sidelined and just quit annotating until I saw some definite direction near the end... To check myself I wrote down trades I would have taken, made 6 pts - but with true slippage, who knows.. maybe 4 pts. 7 round trips overall, no SCT yet, obviously.... Critiques appreciated. H
Today was a nice day. I only got a little confused after 14h when for a while I wasn’t sure where the forest was heading. The bar at 14.10 and a couple after it had me puzzled for a while. But I got it in the end.