If you want to review, I suggest reviewing all of the digests that have been posted in this thread. If you haven't already encountered them (?) try doing a search for my screen name and "*spyfut*". Also search for "gaussian video". Good luck.
According to my data (IB), the 12:25 bar didn't try to go back up, so it began a straightforward nondominant traverse. The black 12:30 bar did try, but on anemic volume, so I saw that as an FTT.
Hmm, very interesting point. I wonder if thats the real FTT and not the 12:25 bar. I saw the 12:25 bar as an FTT b/c it never touched the LTL but you are right, it never even tried, it just went straight down! So if the 12:30 bar was the real FTT the next bar was red and down (and increasing) which must make us happy if we are short and then see this play out.
You are suggesting that at the time, the 12:25 bar be considered a flaw instead of an FTT. If this were the case we would see increasing black on the next bar, I think. What actually happened is on the red bar we saw the decr red we wanted but on the following black bar we had very low volume. This suggests the black bar, not the red, was a flaw, which further suggests that the new dominant direction is short. This assertion is confirmed on the next bar. edit: it probably doesn't matter in reality if we consider the 12:25 bar an FTT or not; the important part is seeing that the black bar is a flaw. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1492652">
I found a good example of a common situation where I become confused about which direction represents <b>Continuation</b> and which represents <b>Change</b>. The annotated FTT is followed by declining black as expected. The last bar shown, and the next in sequence, shows a declining red inside bar. The beginning of a flaw of some kind I would assume. At my level a flaw represents continuation. But wait. Continuation of what? Continuation of the non dominant traverse which began with the FTT? Or continuation of the dominant traverse, which is after all, still dominant? There's no right or wrong answer based on what happened with the next bar. I won't say now or later. I'm just looking for the general principle here, ie. which direction represents continuation if one is trading FTT to FTT? Any help appreciated, Esteban <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1492656">
My thoughts are that that is an FTT alright, but not by much. There will probably be another 1 or 2 attempts on the LTL at least before the trend rolls over. A "weak," or "close" ftt like that I would lean towards considering a sign of change more on the traverse level than on the channel level.
It looks to me like the end of a nondominant traverse - i.e., an FBO. Pretty much the same structure as the first nondominant traverse in your snippet. Declining black volume followed by low red volume that breaks out of the tape RTL.... To me that's a signal for change if I'm long. I would anticipate the next bar to continue down on increasing volume - but I'd try to be ready for anything.
Note the extremely low levels of Volume on the Bars after the alleged FTT. One's brain should begin to think, Flaw. Since the extremely low levels (compared to the FTT Bar) continue longer than a single bar, I view the situation as a forming Dip. As a result, I look for Price to head lower off increasing red Volume. - Spydertrader
Pr0crast and Palinuro: Would the following change to the volume pattern change your minds? By weak do you mean very low volume, rather than simply decreasing volume on the black bar following the FTT? I noticed that as I was preparing the image and wished that the volume for that bar had been higher to better illustrate my point. Like at the level of the bar preceeding the FTT. I just edited it. Does that make a better case for continuation of the non dominant traverse that began with the FTT? <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1492737">