My confusion is here, the price makes higher high but it still falls within the definition of an FTT. What's the clue realtime?
Things will be a bit different here then they were in the equities journal. We have noticed how imperative equities is as a baseline to futures. What you get out of futures that is so important is holding through all that is going on. We have witnessed the share of participants who unfortunately come to believe that they are one piece of the puzzle short of having it "work" for them. Unfortunately this is contrary to what we have come to understand as a "working" framework. The point is that if something is not clear, chances are it has been hashed and rehashed dozens of time. I for one know that we might very well spend the next 6 months going through what is an "FTT" and all of it's features. Although the rehashing is of great benefit to the community, ultimately, it is on the shoulders of the trader to sort out which context fits their current knowledge base. Everyone will have to put on their thinking caps and sort out "what is what"? A hypo perspective is somewhat healthy as long as it is civil. I will largely be sticking to the agenda so all other Q's will be deferred until their appropriate time... Unfortunately, if you have a history of trolling neither time nor energy will be spent on addressing your questions... Regards, MAK
Call it what you wish. HOWEVER, take note that an FTT has a specific context with which we base our trades off of. The failure part of the FTT is with regards to a projection. The projection is based on a cycling of trading activity. The point is that it is not a pseudo hap hazard labeling but a rather definitive labeling with explicit characteristics... It may be useful to thumb through the last 200 pages of the previous equities thread for examples and context executions. Regards, MAK
MAK. Every prince confident of his throne can tolerate, nay, must have, a court jester. "We begin by creating a chart of the S & P Futures Contract (ES07H Currently) using a five-minute time frame (fractal). In addition to price, we want to include volume bars as well. In addition, please place a 20 period Simple moving Average in the price window (referred to later as 20 SMA). Add nothing else at this time. Your chart is ready to begin." Here we unwittingly fall afoul of the Hypostomean Hypothesis, which is that the key core rules must perforce test with positive expectation if the supporting supplementary rules are to increase that core expectation to a surety of easy wealth. From a recidivist backtester's perspective, we just accepted two rules (five minutes and 20m SMA). Looking ahead, I will preview for you that when we get to the 1-2-3 rules, we will discover that niggling real-life problem where we have made a commitment at point 3 and point 4 disappoints. Best regards. Mike.
This is my opinion based on experience.... Forget about higher higher, lower high, etc etc. Instead, approach it from a psychological viewpoint. A new high, by just a tick or two, which fails to move higher; means something. And it's not what all the text books say a higher high means. Actually, you'll probably find FTT's created under your "confused" circumstance will work out as trades much better than the first.
Spydertrader. Kindly forbear my pedanticism, but I am a stickler for rules. And we forgot to state one, albeit minor. Do we mendicants set our 20 SMA to initiate at 9:30AM ET, so that we must wait for the fateful passage of four bars before it portends future wealth, or do we initiate it earlier, allowing premarket follies to pollute it? A plug for using a first-order IIR filter follows regardless of the answer, as you no doubt have surmised. With all due civility. Mike.
The Syllabus January 1 - ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels and the FTT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I asked for clarification as per above agenda. I havenât subscribed to this forum to pick arguments with anyone or to show off my superior qualifications/nationality. Iâm just a humble trader wanting to learn within this supportive and encouraging environment. Can we not be civilized to each other, after all this is the season for goodwill?
I do not include "pre-market / after-market" hours on my ES Charts, nor do I feel the market requires a trader to wait four bars for 'sync' to take place in order to place the first trade of the day. Certainly, geopolitical (and other) influences do play a role in market participant psychology. However, it makes equal sense to follow a rule set which represents a fundamental viewpoint independent of market psychology. In other words, we carry over dominant trends from the previous day (or days), and our rule set (FTT to FTT, FBO or BO) works irrespective of market sentiment. More appropriately, the FTT marks the change in sentiment. We need not know how long the sentiment change will exist. We only need to recognize the next change and follow the rule set in an effort to take timely (and appropriate) action. Attached, please find an example of an EOD FTT (Final Bar). Note the following day (12-26-06) where price moves away from the FTT until reaching another FTT. In the attached example, we see an 'end of day' sentiment change carry over into the next day (highlighted yellow). In the future, we will see additional examples where sentiment change occurs in the "after-market / pre-market" hours. As we move forward, the market continually provides the input required for appropriate decision making and timely action. If one operates from the viewpoint that "The market is never wrong," then all that remains to do falls under the heading of learning to evaluate correctly the market's signals. Knowing when (and where) to look for those signals provides the rationale for this Journal. In your example quoted above, another trend (in the opposite direction) most assuredly shows the 'disappointment' as an FTT (again on the other and opposite direction). Happy New Year. - Spydertrader <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1310495>