Hi MAK, I know ProfLogic very well. We occasionally discuss our trading. Same story with his ergodic method entry times and mine, they are very close. It still fascinates me that with all these different system we enter into positions around the same time. I am also not aiming at catching every turn. Regards, redduke
MAK, ok I appreciate your comments. I do not take an interest in how much points did you make yesterday I only try to understand how much trades did you execute - 10, 20, 40? It is very hard for novice do not overtrade when sweeping 5min fractal on intrabar basis. So if you find this question inadmissible - disregard my post.
Rus, remember that sweeping does not equate to trading. For a beginner, per this program, we as beginners ONLY enter on FTT's. That eliminates over trading easily. EDIT: And, for the moment, we're not trading at all, just observing.
of course I do not trade FTTs by now just learn and observe. My question is really about trading mistakes. If you can determine FTTs with 100% or even 75% accuracy you are top-expert. Suppose you are mistaken and confuse FTT with hitch for example. What would you do? Exit? Reverse to new move? Trading mistakes causes either overtrading or big losses and this is the biggest problem for me.
Rus, I invite you to carefully read the whole thread from the beginning. Spyder discusses this. We will learn what you are asking over the coming months, but to learn this best we learn it step by step. I trust Jack and Spyder to do what is best for us. Be patient, I believe it will pay off big.
Fair enough! As traders, we are always prone to losses. Typically this happens when we misidentify what the data is saying. Believe it or not, I am doing the bar by bar to show a bigger picture then the 5M and how the FTT of the current picture is of the bigger picture. We can then go finer and sneak a peak of the YM 2M. If you always "see" where the right side of the action is and then play to keep yoruself on the right side, you then get into the habit of doing what is required when it is required which keeps you moving ahead of the curve. Regards, MAK
I do not see 'overtrading' as your biggest problem. It is important for you to understand the value of making errors at this point. I have intentionally handicapped everyone by only discussing the most basic tool set at present. Why? Because learning to work through the errors provides a better education for the future. From a logic standpoint, which makes better sense? All of us will one day trade in an error free environment, or we will continue to make the occasional error (as all humans do) and therefore need to learn how to quickly fix those errors. The system, thus far, has but three rules. FTT to FTT (reverse) FTT to FBO (exit) FTT to BO (hold) If at any time, a trader breaks those rules, the trader needs to fix what they broke. A trader does not return to the information gathering stage, the analysis stage or the decision making stage. When breaking any of the above three rules, a trader proceeds directly to the taking immediate (and appropriate) action stage in an effort to fix the problem. If a trader thinks they have an FTT only to realize they had a flaw (Hitch, Dip, Stall, etc.), then the trader has not correctly followed the above rules. They have taken action when they should not have done so, and therefore must take the appropriate action to fix the problem placing the trader back on the right side of the market. It does not matter if a small loss results from following the prescribed solution. The mistakes made it this level provide a framework for learning to avoid a repeat performance in the future. The learning process assumes mistakes in input analysis will be made. In fact, It counts on them. I encourage anyone who still struggles with confusion on this point to review this thread - starting from page one. - Spydertrader
I am making an exception here. The exception is answering this question. With respect to price and volume we are working off the P, V relationship. We are working in a way that has a "vector" aspect as put forth in the P, V relationship. This makes the question go away. That is, it is not possible to not use the P, V relationship for making money. We are making a choice to deal with the "psychology of the markets" and we do that by using the theorem that defines the relationship of the variables. The relationship of the variables is determined by the market participants. So there is a factor that relates these variables and this factor is connected to a lot of externalities which mostly also relate to human behavior. The factor is time. NOW is where we work and we operate in a vector mode with respect to the present. This is the context. There are many words that I refuse to dictate (or type) because I am oriented to painting pictures that enable transference to build upon success. We are making an effort to deal for a month with P and V, and the relationship of P and V where we have chosen the 5 minute chart to better characterize the passage of time. The traverses of channels take several bars each as do formations within the traverses and channels. The bar by bar narration that is coming down now by MAK is a commentary on P and V. The chart showing the volume volatility relationship for five minute bars gives a beautiful characterization of the bars (over a month of bars). Our hope is to have you be versed in P and V on the 5 minute ES cahrt by the end of the month. It is very very valuable to have a ton of questions on what we are doing every day. It is great to compare results of working on this in any way possible. Anyone is free to use more or less of this as they wish. Our focus is to deliver to you an approach that becomes an expert way to extract the capital offered throughout each day. P and V and their relationship is the foundation for this and we make the connection using comparisons based upon a time interval because of the psychological nature of humans trading.