I guess Mak got distracted with his new toy. I anticipate what he wants to say is that it is the repeating sequences that matter - and where you find the market in the sequence. The ideal entry or reversal is within 3 ticks of a Pt1. However, if you miss this ideal and subsequently see strong continuation (very high PRV coincident with a BO for example) then you can consider that as a good entry too even though it is late. Moving the entry further and further back to the optimal point comes when you realise all you are doing is logging more confirmation that your original judgement was correct. You need to believe that the sequences will unfold the same way time after time and trust that you will do the right thing in a timely manner if there is change, acting as soon as you have sufficient information. (I'm not quite there yet by any means.)
Hey EZZY, i just saw your post on esignal's forum regarding qchart's problem in displaying ((YM07M -IND) -81) i too have noticed that the chart wasn't displaying the number that it should've. Did you ever figure out a way to fix this problem? sorry for sidetracking the conversation guys.
Following on from my previous post about sequences, I have done a short commentary of the key action points on Friday to show what I believe is the ideal approach at the coarse level. Comments welcome, especially where the real time experience differed significantly from this hindsight analysis. My experience in real time is that I over-analyse and look for more information than is actually required to make money. === 11 May 2007 Idealised coarse level commentary (hindsight), 5 actions: 09:30 Monitor and annotate from open until you see Pt3 Long at 0945. Annotate YM also. 09:45 Enter L on seeing Pt3 incr Black PRV. LTL+. Be alert for FTT. 0950: FTT. Reverse. (sufficient data: LTL+ followed by FTT + check YM). 09:55 R2R at TL BO => HOLD. 10:00 Be alert for BO up. TL holds. Double bottom: be alert for reversal. 10:05 FTT. They don't come much clearer than this: low tested 3 times then ticks up away from FTT. Wait for next bar, if you prefer, to confirm decr Black PRV. 10:10 Reverse after second FTT (wait for Black). BO up on decr V - want to see B2B so be alert for possible FBO (Pt3 short). Watch YM/INDU carefully - is YM moving or just the cash? (FBO warning). 10:15 B2B => HOLD Lateral entered from below. HOLD 10:45 Resume from Pt3 long 10:50 Cont. LTL+. Peak Volume. Be inclined to hold until very clear FTT presents (allow for momentum). 10:55 HOLD - this is not the FTT you are looking for, it is a hitch, expect another thrust up after peak volume. 11:00 Another very clear FTT. Wait for next bar to confirm decr Red PRV. 11:05 Decr Red PRV. Reverse. 11:20 R2R on BO as expected. HOLD. 11:50 Consider exit after LTL+ on high volume. Get lunch and relax. PM session optional, you've made your numbers.
These should take care of you: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1423551&highlight=qcharts+sqz/str#post1423551 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1429108&highlight=qcharts+sqz/str#post1429108 If you still have problems or questions PM me and we'll get it worked out. - EZ
PointOne, do you think it's possible to enter within 3 ticks of a Pt1 with the tools we have available today ? I ask you this, because sometimes I'm very confident that one bar is a FTT on that same bar (long up tail with red close for instance), but it is always at the bar close that I 'know' that. Other times I can only 'see' it in the next one or two bars. Although I 'know' that a bar is a FTT at the close, I can never enter in that moment...i 'need' to wait for some sort of confirmation (and lose the best price of course) regards,
Here is my hindsight coarse analysis. 1. Enter long pt3 on bar 4 at 1502 exit on rtl cross on bar 6 at breakeven. 2. Enter long pt3 on bar 9 at 1502.25 using 15:55 bar from previous day as point 1. Draw in tighter channel line on volatility expansion. Exit on new channel rtl cross at 1508. 3. Enter short bar 25 1507.25 exit bar39 on rtl cross at breakeven. 4. Sideline. 5. Enter long bar 47 at 1507.25. Exit bar 53 at 1507 on rtl cross. -.25 6. Enter long bar 69 at 1507.25 exit on revised expansion channel cross on bar 76 at 1508.75 7. Enter long bar 77 at 1509.75. Exit on close. The attached charts shows only the pertinent channels for clarity. Green arrows are buy and red sell.
I was talking about the ideal, once you have all the fine tools in the right place. The point is that with enough time you will recognise the FTT and want to enter even though your current skill level prevents you from doing so. This is the sign that you are ready for the next finer tool. With the coarse level toolset, I think you can enter on the next bar after Pt1 or wait for Pt3. Personally, I find Pt3s more difficult to catch than the bar after an FTT or the FTT bar itself. (I guess this is the reasoning behind the instructions given on page 1 of this journal.) I'm trying to approach trading from the reverse-engineering point of view and hindsight analysis is a small part of learning the sequences: Bound the problem. Come up with a solution-neutral problem statement: Differentiate between continuation and change. Figure out what is going on at all times. Develop beliefs that sequences repeat and end-effects are observable. Figure out what you need to know at any stage in the sequence. Just do it. Repeat. As an aside, when I look at the Nikkei, often 3 ticks away from Pt 1 is all that is available by the time you can react to a clear FTT - price seems to pause at 3 ticks for some reason, better prices are no longer available. (An earlier entry would be fading the trend.) We will get there if we stick with Spyder's tuition - nailing entries and reversals within 3 ticks of Pt1s almost every time. Over-riding all of the above is not to reinvent the wheel and to work smarter not harder. I apologise if this sounds like pontification - my intention is to share my thoughts as I go through an intense learning phase. I have no doubt that this is the path to follow. (Cue derisive howls from the sock puppets. )
Point One, Great commentary. I think there is much to learn from discussing specifics like this. Thanks for posting this. Here's a few things that I noticed that might be worthy of further discussion. 1. The 10:30 bar looks like a FTT similar to the one you traded at 10:05 in the opposite direction. Did this bar stike you as a possible FTT? I held through it and had my reasons, but would like your take on it since it looks so similar to your entry. 2. Your 11:20 R2R on BO also looks very similar to the 10:05 entry FTT, and was followed by stalled price. What made you view these 2 events in an opposite manner? 3. I don't see high volume at 11:50. Is your reasoning that the volatility expansion bar closed back within prev bar? Hoping for some constructive discussion. Best regards, Esteban
Bearbelly, thanks for posting your hindsight analysis. I wish you would add your reasons for entering more specifically for trades numbered 3-7. It seems your exits are usually based on RT breaks, but not always the first break and sometimes intra candle and sometimes not. Without further commentary it's hard to judge whether you are being consistent in your exit methodology. I think seeing how each of us interprets and takes action on the principles we are learning can help immensely with our understanding. Again, thanks for the log. Best regards, esteban