I thing I noticed between Spyders chart and my ES charts is the discrepancy in volume (I looked at the first few bars 9:30am EST onwards). My volume bars for the first 4 bars read as follows (both IB and IQFeed had the same figures) 33K, 37K, 28K and 24K. In spyder's chart, Bar 2 is around 2500 while bars 3 & 4 are significantly below 2500. Based on the red ray which I think is at 2500. I am wondering what might have caused such a discrepancy
QCharts had some sort of meltdown this morning. The meltdown seriously effected everyone's data. I appreciate you reminding me of the event. I should have posted same when I attached my chart. - Spydertrader
So here is my bar by bar run down. I will put up as many as I can permit. I will try to put up complete days (ie. 81 bars). This is the actual mental annotations and reps that I go through. You will find different modus that I have for different bars. PV is the crux of all of it as am calibrating to the cycling surging and withdrawal of volume. The best illustration I liken PV to is that channels are like tides. The tide has a definite direction (ie. towards high, or towards low tide). In between low and high tide, you have the cycling of surging and withdrawing water line (ie. advances toward high or low tide). These are the dominants since the surges directly correspond to the advancing of the front (ie. price). <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1319441> Given this, here's the step by step as I recalled for friday... Bar 1... We have extraordinary volume. On extraordinary volume, price translates pretty well. In other words you do not have your typical meandering back and forth. Instead, the price translation is rather swift. Extraordinary volume with price being below the open from the beginning of the bar, the trend is short. However, I am on alert since the first several minutes out of the gate, I find riddled with directional changes and various 3 bar formations. I did not have the previous days carryover (a NO NO), but I carry on anyway since it does not effect my modus... Bar 2... PRV DECReasing volume all through to the end of the bar. Immediately from the get go, the DECReasing PRV volume flags that pt2 is possibly on the table. Simultaneously and instantly I am on gaurd for 2 things, whether or not bar 2 will extend beyond the lo of bar 1 (ie. extension beyond lo is in the dominant direction), or whether it will retrace back up to the hi of bar 1. Initially, it shows signs of extending the lo but stops and finishes up. The point at which it didn't extend the lo, I "KNEW" I had pt 2. Bar 3... PRV INCReasing volume... I am on gaurd and looking for only two things; either it extends beyond the top of bar 2, which would be the end of S1 and beginning of L2, or it ends the retrace and begins the second traverse of the channel. I get the latter... Annotate my pt3 and move forward to the next bar... Bar 4... PRV INCReasing volume... From the get go it is biz as usual but then the bar turns. We started with INCR RED but then the V turns BLACK with INCR volume. What happened here was the end effect of the traverse was within the bar. I know this because I watched the extension of the LO of bar 3 which is what I was expecting since I saw an INCR PRV. However, the extension stops and begins retracing. Without having the benefit of looking elsewhere, I am noting wether the lo of this bar is an FTT for a new channel. I wait and see watching to see if my Bar 5 will show INCR PRV to BO from my RTL. Bar 5... DECR PRV... I wait and checkout whether it extends the top of Bar 4... It doesn't and instead stalls... I know I am still in the retrace. Bar 6... INCR PRV... Dominant occuring. The question is whether the DOMINANT will be BO from the S1 or a 3rd traverse of S1. From the open, it surges towards the LTL. Back in biz... Bar 7... This bar actually started with INCR PRV and then migrated to DECR PRV... From it's open, I am looking to see whether or not it will extend the LTL. From the open, it doesn't extend the lo of bar 6. I am on alert because the pace is extreme which means the bar is likely to have large volatility. I watch and having not acted on the possible bar 6 FTT, my fall back is a XO of the RTL. As soon as it XOs, I annotate that S1 is over and I plug in my pt1 for S2. Despite being caught off gaurd by the DECR PRV, I am still on the RIGHT SIDE by MONITORING the XO of my RTL... The top of bar 7 is my current pt2 and I am looking to see whether bar 8 will extend it or retrace it to give me pt 3... I want to be comfortable that L2 is a LONG and not a LATERAL/PENNAT so I am on alert... continued... MAK!
Hi Spyder, Great thread and monumental effort. Huge thanks to you and others. It has been mentioned many times on this thread the importance of price and volume. The question that I have is why not use volume bars which give the purest combination and price action and volume instead of fixed time fractal.? All other rules the same. Thanks, redduke
Mak, what would you do if Bar 5 extended the top of Bar 4? Exit or reverse? And what size of extension (1 tick, 2 tick) is enough to exit short?
The excellent annotated charts recently posted and Mak's last play by play description of a series of bars gave me an "AHA" moment with the "RB2RB" transitions that I was having problems seeing. My first problem is that I was looking for symmetry ( The left hand side of the R or B had to be equal to the right side of R or B ) and my second problem was the thought that the difference between a red or black bar can be only 1 tick at the moment the bar was displayed. My aha moment came when I realized that the symmetry was just an erroneous conception that I had and the realization that the R or B transition would be more apparent on a lower time frame and with some additional Volume analysis tools. Evidence ( Clues ) of the R or B transition can occur anytime within a 5 minute bar. I am beginning to see more clearly the volume gas pedal relationship to the price range. I appreciate everyone's effort. thank you!
@spy I fell asleep at my office desk last night at home. Got a new office chair which is nearly as comfy as my bed. Definitely not a good thing... @rustrader EXCELLENT QUESTION. If my bar 5 extends beyond the top of bar 4, I plot in a NEW PT3. Why??? Because I am looking at my PRV and I find -PRV. With -PRV (ie. DECR PRV), I am not expecting the bar to BO from the RTL simply because DECR V dictates this is a NON-DOMINANT progression across the channel... I am also still expecting volume to be strong because we are still in the AM action zone. The INCR side of the V means that the HERD is flooding in. When we talk about front running the herd, an expert will front run both the entrance and exit of the herd and use reverses to bank the whole price progression. @8833broc Yes... Drop the geometric symmetry. The symmetry is there but not in the pattern sense that your thinking/looking for. I will get through the whole 81 bars as the day is still relatively fresh in mind. At the end, I will post what I mean by dynamic profit buffering. So now you are beginning to scratch your head and see what I mean by STRICT PV. My PV analysis is on every single bar. At some of the later bars, you will find the tough spots that I negotiate myself through... NB Please note extremely well some of the subtleties that I do that alot of you may not think about. For example, for each VOLUME PACE, I have a different expectation for how far the bar will extend. This is the real eye opener for PRV. Given my continous rt PRV value, I have an expectation for how large the PRICE bar will be. The +/- tells me whether I can expect to extend the DOMINANT direction (+PRV) or retrace back against the DOMINANT direction (-PRV). I WILL get through the whole day... Regards, MAK
I wonder how much weight you should attach to the carryover channels? It seems like the days channels would have a little more weight than the carryovers but Im guessing. The carryover certainly seems to have stopped the selloff, tho.
Bear, I think it depends: is the carryover a minor channel or is it a higher fractal. The higher fractal should always rule.