It's how you see the market. You should continue to draw your channels as you see them. Now, if you had an uptrend in place of a tanking market, we might have a problem, but as long as you see the market and the channels (and your Gaussians match those channels), and by doing so, you have the ability to profit, then continue on in the same manner. - Spydertrader
decided to give quotetracker a try today... anyone know how i can get that stupid GLOBEX off my background?
Cool, thx. There seems to be a little subjectivity at times, when to redraw or fan, or expand etc. So that's ok as long as we're keeping on the right side and in sync with the gaussians. - EZ
Spydertrader, would you please elaborate on your statement? The 12:10 decreasing black volume in the red down channel could also mean retracement, hence continuation down, isn't it? Then, the 12:15 black rising volume seems like an indication of the change.
Ivob asked the question, with respect to my previous example (Red Channel), 'At what point did we know we had an FTT?' If one searches for FTT's then a signal for change is the FTT (in this case decreasing Black Volume confirms the FTT). In such an example, increasing Black Volume becomes continuation - but only after the BO. If one searches for Right Trend Line Break Outs (or Point Threes), then the signal for continuation is increasing black volume. In other words, if one doesn't enter until a breach of a RTL, then one needs to see increasing black volume. If one enters off an FTT, then one needs to see decreasing black volume followed by increasing black volume to have continuation (hold). It all boils down to what level of Resolution a trader chooses to monitor. In the previously posted example, increasing red Volume would have meant continuation (down). If a trader chose to monitor for FTT's, then the signal for change (FTT followed by decreasing Black Volume) differs from a trader who chooses to monitor for RTL Breaks (Price exits the channel with increasing Black Volume). Since ivob asked, 'When did we know we had an FTT?' our sufficient data set (in this specific example) becomes Failure of Price to Traverse, followed by, decreasing black volume. I hope my answer provided some clarity, if not please let me know. - Spydertrader
That was really a great explaination. The decreasing volume after the FTT always threw me, 'cause increasing usually means continuation. So seeing decreasing volume was always a cause for concern. Not anymore. Decreasing then increasing. Regards - EZ
I find the terms "increasing" and "decreasing" somewhat confusing. In this case decreasing black volume confirms the FTT but I would like to have the term "decreasing" clarified. Decreasing means "becoming less" but compared to what? Becoming less compared to black volume before the FTT or becoming less in the bar(s) after the FTT? (I suppose after the FTT) "Becoming less" is relative and can also mean black volume is first high (after the FTT) and then on a later moment in the same bar low or lower. Another option is that black volume after the FTT is low and on a later moment even lower. This is also decreasing. However, I do recall a situation some days ago where you stated that non dominant volume was just to low for the FTT to be an FTT so I suppose we do need some substantial black volume right after the FTT, so it can decrease. Am I seeing this right? Also I remark that determining whether something is increasing or decreasing (or stable) requires us to wait because this means comparing volume levels on different moments. One cannot wait too long however. regards, Ivo
Ivo, I'm sure Spyder will have a better explanation, but since he's probably sleeping now, I'll give it a try. Volume increases throughout the dominant traverse (and it will be predominantly dominant volume). Keep in mind that there are 3 possible ends to a dominant traverse. As volume peaks, price : 1 - hits the LTL, 2 - FTTs, or 3 - creates a volatility expansion. After 3 price may continue (with more volume), but after 1 or 2 price changes direction as volume peaks. So color and direction change, but volume stays high, and then decreases as price makes the nondominant traverse. Whether that happens intrabar or over a series of bars depends on market pace and the resolution you're monitoring. I don't think it makes sense to compare black volume before and after the FTT, as you suggest. Assuming we're in a down channel, a black bar before the FTT would occur within a subchannel, whereas black volume afterward would be the nondominant traverse of the main channel--a different resolution level. Regarding waiting: yes, but I think the goal is to tune yourself well enough to the ebb and flow of volume and the interaction of the various levels of channels that the lag becomes unimportant. To reduce lag at one level you need to have the ability to monitor accurately at the next lower resolution level, etc. FWIW, I found yesterday after the drop especially tough because there were so many periods of fairly flat volume and price, followed by sudden spikes which were hard to anticipate. Before the spike I didn't know what direction to take, and after it seemed too late to enter.... Perhaps that's why Jack talks about bracketing CCC periods, though Spyder seems to do "OK" without doing that. Hope that helps.