The 11:15 FTT 11:20 Pt1 confirmed 11:50 R2R 12:10 Pt 3 was a super PV sequence. Hold until 13:30 or 14:15 for about 15 points. ES was a lot smoother than the DAX over the same period (HVS and fanning to deal with in Europe) but the change signals happen in exactly the same bar. One difference worth noting is that the DAX moved over 60 pts on the same signals. Make of that what you will. As Jack Bauer might say, "Copy that!"
In my view if a green TL would have been drawn at the top of the first bar, it would have noted the third's bar volatility expansion and that would have made your green #2 your first Green FTT.. Am I correct ? or too fast ? Cheers!
No. One cannot go 'back in time' and attempt to create an uptrend where not existed. Bar Two makes a lower low when compared to Bar One. The market does not head higher until Price begins to come off this low point. One can use only two successive bars to draw tapes, but the 'Point Two' of a Taped Channel cannot occur 'behind' Point One. We annotate out into the future, not into the past. Hope that provided some clarity. - Spydertrader
Thanks Spyder. I thought that by the time the third bar crossed the top of the second bar, chances for price to have developed sometype of an up channel where there.... Since most channels are build with 45degree TLs, the top of the 3rd bar would have given it away imo... Either way I am too new to know what I am talking about. As I was growing up my dad taught me never to believe in jealousy, and I never have, but I am taking a big exception with your writing skills though. Cheers and thank you!
Hopefully next week I can start posting my charts with entries and exits. I know I use this approach a little differently than all here but I am focusing on the channels and trend confirmations or reversals (i.e. FTTs, BO or FBOs). This is meshing well with my own approach so I am enjoying the learning process. Forgive the questions but I am trying to do my best to dive into the material before asking what has already been answered. Thanks to Spyder for the volatility line descritopn of my basement and attic. The basement and attic analogy help me visualize it since the market has to leave the basement and cross into the 2d floor before entering the attic and it is easy at times to spot when it starts to go up the steps but falls down (FTT). Some of you do not have the 20-period EMA (or SMA if it suits you) on your chart. Trust me that it plays a significant role for support and resistance along the day and can even act as a trailing stop to not got shaken out of normal intra-trend reversals. thanks..
If you are referring to my last couple charts, my qcharts crashed recently (corrupting my workspace) and I lost my pace lines and the blue 20sma... Just haven't remembered to replace them yet.
Also Daxing... Had some WTF' s??. I've highlighted my chart, yellow square. Even in hind sight I, not sure how I would annotate this. There is a 40 point range of whipsaw. I'd be grateful some help in how to interpret this. Especially the volume, Large black vol on large spread bar ..(A) (even though price had just broken green RTL and I'm looking for a point 1.2.3 channel) Following this is red bar on high vol that barely pushes up ( 10 points) and closes on its low. (B) It's high being = high to bar (Y). I'm expecting a move down ( FTT ?) but instead we get another push up (20 points) on high vol. (c) It looks like an FTT as it fails to traverse to the green Vol Exp line, but the red bar (D) has lower vol and I basically couldn't keep up with the action. Equally confused as to how to interpret vol on bars intra bar as they can change from red to black very quickly.. Bar (E) is a good example. After increasing red vol after FTT , price reverses on bar E but AFTER price had dropped again to same low on vol THAT WAS RED AT THE TIME.. Price moves switfly up however but vol ends up being lower. The rest is as confussing to me..price is whipsawing up and down and vol is changing red to black mid bar and back again at times.. How do we deal with this..? Best to all FilterTIp
Spyder, That's an extremely helpful chart, it'll make a great reference. I do have a couple of questions about it. According to the beginner rules, we enter on an FTT and exit on an FBO. Doesn't that mean that in the blue section with multiple FTTs/FBOs we should reverse on the first FTT, then follow with mulitple exits and entrances (long) until we come to the final BO? I actually held through that period, waiting for a more dramatic FTT or the BO, but I didn't feel comfortable doing so. Second, here you use volatility expansions to cover the final move down, but elsewhere with similar sudden drops you draw steeper channels. It doesn't really matter here since the day ends, but are there any guidelines as to which approach to use? Thanks, palinuro
Glad you found it useful. In the beginning (when entering / reversing on FTT's) we exit on an FBO, as one gains more experience (and recognizes an FBO as a signal for change), instead of exiting on an FBO, a trader will reverse. Since some people had some difficulty locating FTT's in a timely fashion, I provided the 'Forest Level' Resolution set of guidelines. On the Forest Level (where a trader enters on a Point Three), a trader holds through an FBO and only exits on the BO of the RTL. On High Volatility Day (such as we have experienced this week) it can feel extremely uncomfortable to hold through, what turns out to be, a multiple point retrace following an FTT. Use these emotions to motivate you to more quickly recognize an FTT and an FBO in an effort to develop the skills needed to traverse the channels both on the dominant and non- dominant side. If you look at my chart from Tuesday, you'll see that I draw in both Volatility Expansion Lines and Steeper Channels. Today, I wanted to show how the Gaussian Volume Formations correspond directly to the 'Forest' (channel width) in which we find ourselves. In other words, both the trend lines and Gaussians encapsulate Price. Drawing in Steeper Channels allows you to 'bank' those profits which might return to the market during a 'retrace' of Price. Volatility Expansion lines simply widen the size of the Forest. Volatility Lines are mandatory, Steeper channels are optional. Hope that helps. - Spydertrader