You watch price going to RTL and break it. Then wait for 1-2-3 setup and get in on pt 3. If it doesn't break wait for next FTT. Mm. after third bar = 15 minutes. Seems a little late to me and I would not get in at that moment anymore. For me it has to be the same bar or the one after it but maybe others wait longer. regards, Ivo
Sorry to interrupt. I was left behind at the end of Jan, when I was instructed to "annotate" the ES for 8 and half hrs straight for a month... I have not been able to do the first 10 minutes yet because I can't concentrate on one single thought process for such a long time.... Even though my discipline level has improved dramatically over the last 24 months, I am not there yet I believe. In either case Tums, "over which places" do you mean ? Hope Jack and Spyder can forgive my trolling along....
I like the idea of debriefing some real trades this month that either turned out well or not. I know some of us (myself included) are playing around with execution (sim trading, real trading, etc), and as many have mentioned, it is a bit different when you're really in there pressing buttons. You really see what still needs work and what is gelling. In my case, I am having a tough time "staying cool" during HVS/flaw type things. I SUSPECT that's because these past few days there has been so much volatility that an HVS is 2-4 points tall. Here is an example of a trade I made today where my "lost my cool" and exited for a wash, when had I somehow stayed in it I would have netted 8-9 pts. I entered on the same bar as the FTT, then exited on the third bar after that, where the HVS lashed back at me. Is it reasonable to exit like this? Should I have placed some sort of limit sell order just outside the very bottom of the HVS to catch the potential down move after I closed my initial position? If I am supposed to be holding here, what is my thought process as the 2.5 pt bar slaps me in the face? My entry is perfect here. I can't help but to think that if I was able to "see" that this was an HVS somehow, that I would have made the 8-9 pts that were on the table for this quick trade. Comments or suggestions?
if it is not a reversal, it is a continuation. stay on until it become risky to do so. (i.e. another FTT.) (I read this from either Jack, Spyder, or Mak. It is somewhere, but don't ask me to cite the location, there are just too many pages.)
On that bar, I saw increasing black on a pro-rata basis. It ended up being no higher than the previous red bar (characteristic of lateral action), but at the time this was not clear to me. At some point in there, like maybe the 4th or 5th bar after the FTT, should I have said to myself, "This is an not reversal, this is HVS, we hold through HVS's, I'm getting back in short"?
The Forest has no flaws. Price does not know where you entered, and therefore could not have 'lashed back at you.' The market knows only two words - continuation and change. Change on one resolution level (flaws) mean continuation on another. Rather than base your monitoring off your entry, listen to the market. You appear to have monitored on a lower resolution than planned. If you found yourself within an HVS, then you attempted to monitor with tools not designed to handle such a fine resolution. The tools you do have, ES, YM, Price, Volume Channels and Gaussians provide input at the Coarse Level resolution. In short, you attempted to perform brain surgery with a pick axe and shovel when you needed a scalpel and scissors. You learned a valuable lesson today. You learned you need to build a stronger foundation before attempting to head off the reservation. See how easy it is to be sucked down into the the abyss? Next time you attempt to SIM Trade, monitor the market and not your P & L. Act as if you caught the exact tic that provided your entry signal (FTT or Point Three). Then see what the market tells you to do from the Coarse Level. There'll be time anuff for countin', when the dealin's done. - Spydertrader
An awareness ( even through fear) of the volatilty on any given day, is a good sign. I too have difficulty assessing when the HVS is in play and trading the DAX this has recently meant very severe and fast swings. I am dealing with this by using the RTL of the tape as an exit point, using the top of the FTT bar and the top of the next bar ( as in your example of a down move) to ancore and project. Not sure if that's correct but it takes care of an exit with profit and allows the trade to continue if RTL is not broken. If things turn out to be an HVS I use the break of a horizontal line drawn at the base of the HVS to re-enter. Best to you FilterTip
Here is my rookie advice. The snapback closed no higher than your entry or the previous red bar. i think as long as the trade does not take out the FTT, you are still in thatbreakout you graphed with the upward slanting channel light lines. In my experience with trend breakouts, some pullback is normal at times as long as it does not exceed the breakout move. In your chart, that snapback looked ominous according to your PRV, but since you got in on a very nice FTT which was confirmed over the next two bars, you need more than a pullback to that level to change your thinking, you need a true reversal where the sellers lose to the buyers. In this case, the buyers came roaring back but fizzled with lack of volume follow through and lack of breaking previous bar levels. This may be different than the method seen here but I think sometimes when you get in on a FTT short like that with a bar or two of downward movement, wait longer for a close of that pullback candle to see if it is really a reversal or simple pullback. The fact that the next bar jumped lower and failed to take out the high of the previous bar again keeps you in the trade for the next two drop offs. Also, after the FTT, I would have drawn a top channel line from the FTT downward sloping to help confirm the new downward trend. I know I am newer at this but I do trade the futures a lot and map out moves as best as I can. That is why I am trying this approach to map it out cleaner.
THis was what I was getting at with respect to adding the downward sloping trendling from the top of the FTT which would keep you in the short despite the snap pullback in the 4th bar after the FTT.
Pr0crast, FWIW, I was in the exact same trade, short at 1410.25. The next bar had a small move and retrace on lower volume, so I held. When price broke toward the RTL (the black line), I annotated the down channel (I know, not forest level). When price broke the RTL and came back up, I was thinking FBO and exited at 1408.75. What I did not do was take a look at the volume. That may have kept me in the trade. The next black bar had me patting myself on the back. What I failed to do was continue to watch that RTL for another break which would have gotten me back into the short. I had a similar problem this morning just before the 10:00 announcements. Was long from the FTT/RTL break on bar 5 with a nice profit. Knowing that there were numbers coming out at 10, I bailed toward the end of bar 6, forgetting the "continue" or "change" rules. We know what happened after that. So...while I am happy to be up for the day and doing a fairly good job of annotating, I know that I can do better. I did spend a hour or more going over the day, rechecking the volume gaussians, etc. before I wrapped up. bundlemaker hit the nail on the head with his post. The key is to learn to recognize these opportunities to improve. JD