R/R, Thanks very much; you're right, I was reversing the TL's--definitely a lapse into confusion. Still not sure why we would expect the next bar after the volaitility expansion to traverse. Wouldn't it normally begin the retrace? More catching up this weekend...
I have highlighted the specific bar annotated as an FTT (See attached chart snippet). Prior to this bar, we see price create a volatility expansion (1). After the expansion (within the same bar), we see price pull back (retrace) (2) and attempt to make another run at the Left Trend Line (LTL) (3). However, price fails to reach the LTL (FTT), and we see price begin to traverse back to the right trend line. (4) Price does not make it past the 20 SMA (5) before returning to its upward progression (hence the FBO). I hope that helps clarify things for you. - Spydertrader <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1364364>
I know where you're coming from with this as it bothered me for some time not knowing the extent of retrace required before we would consider the next effort to traverse as a potential FTT. I have not found this to be specifically defined anywhere. As you visualize the intrabar price movement in Spyder's reply to you, you see implicitly that he considers a minor retrace adequate. Also look at the next to last bar which made a 2-bar double top in his chart snippet, and although not marked, guess what that might have been called in real time?
oops It was a second thought. I added that afterwards. I shouldn't change what was already good enough. LOL. Here's my v.0.3 attempt. Please comment.
Spyder or Mak, I am having problems seeing the 2 minute YM as a leading indicator but I see it more as a coincident indicator. I get the same results focusing on the 2 minute emini as I do the 2 minute YM when trading the 5 minute emini. I can see a 2 minute FTT develop sooner than a 5 minute FTT irregardless of if I am viewing a 2 minute YM or EM chart. Granted I may see it at 1004 am on a 2 minute bar but have to wait for the 5 minute bar to close at 1005am. Mr_Black FTT chart is what the charts looked like last Thursday and Friday. I think my THursday chart confusion was a result of seeing, trading and confusing the immediate channels ( the now ) with the Intemediate channels. I was mixing pt 3s and BO. Attached is a 2 min and 5 min emini chart. I highlighted the ym ftt and drew a line to the 5 minute EM chart. Can you add any points that I missed. regards,
Yes, that helps a lot. I hadn't been seeing the first bar's intrabar retrace as part of the cycle. And as R/R noted, it's also a relatively slight retrace, about as much movement back and forth as we often see mid-channel. But I suppose the context makes a big difference as to the expected outcome ... interesting use of the SMA here, too. Thanks!
R/R, Thanks again, that was the heart of my question about it. Re that 2nd-last bar, would you really consider such a slight difference (less than a tick) a FTT? I thought channels were a little fuzzier than that, though they are incredibly precise often enough.
A. The FTT does not represent the only signal of change. As such, one should evaluate the YM's utility (when compared to the ES 2 min) after we have discussed all such 'change' signals - not before. B. Those that have monitored the YM for a while often see instances of the YM moving off in one direction prior to the ES even moving a tic. In such cases, the fractal of use for the ES would matter little. C. Why do you have to wait for the 5 min bar to close on the ES? Attached, please find a 'side by side' snippet of the 2min YM and 5 min ES. Note the 14:16 (1) and 14:18 (2) bars on the YM. Also note the 14:15 (3) and 14:20 (4) bars on the ES. I have highlighted these areas in yellow. Sometime between the high of bar 2 and the close of bar 2, you know you have an FTT. The time when you know you have an FTT is sometime prior to 14:20. Comparing to the ES now, this same phenomenon plays out within the 14:15 (3) bar. As a result, you know you have an FTT somewhere between the high and the close of bar 3. No need to wait for the 14:20 (4) bar to close on the ES. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1364775> Because we say, "The YM leads the ES." we know that a 'change' signal appearing on the YM foreshadows that same 'change' signal on the ES. If you look at this same time period on the 2 min ES, it appears as though price is sitting in a lateral channel for three bars. When you say, you see no difference in using the 2 min YM or the 2 min ES, Do you mean to say that a lateral channel on the 2 min ES (often CCC) tells you the same thing as an FTT on the YM? <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1364776> So that you can better understand the relationship between the YM and the ES, begin to look for times when the YM moves off in a direction before we see the same movement on the ES. When you begin to see these circumstances unfold, it should solidify the rationale for the use of the 2 min YM for you. - Spydertrader