Some thoughts on today: I almost cancelled my buy order on GROW when it was up 1.00 for the day because I thought I might be chasing it again. My confidence in the buy was 100% related to GROW's daily chart via the Hershy chartscript. GROW was one of the only DU stocks that was close to the bottom of its daily channel seen via the above wealth-lab script. While the quick day trades are great, I think GROW has a lot more room available.
hey Johns, could you tell me about the neural network as well as the WEKA tool you mentioned? i'm very interested in learning about both of them and how they are utilized in trading. ps. can you show me websites where i can check these out too? and how helpful do you find them to be? would like to hear your thoughts on these products.
Looks like I picked the wrong night to go out for a beer! Here's my hi-tech neural-net datamining hotlist review (from last saturday): <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1368881>
Chiefraven, Anything you would like to know about WEKA can be found here: http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/ I use the linux version and run everything via the command line. They have a GUI as well, but for the amount of data I process (many many gigs of data) the GUI is worthless. One of the classifier trees is called J48. It will write rules for you in an IF=>THEN=>ELSE format. This will quickly let you see how you might adjust your parameters for various results. I use a combination of J48 for its simplicity and NaiveBayes. I've written my own wrappers to pre-process data, and to apply the classifiers against the data and save statistics to a directory. Then via a simple linux grep command I can see the % correct as well as other criteria and evaluate various models. My other application is based on a genetic algorithm. There is a long story behind this one, and for the time being, suffice it to say that WEKA will address virtually all of your concerns and even some of the genetic algorithm stuff. I would explore WEKA 100% before buying anything. The problem is that in order to use it you have to get your hands dirty and learn about parsing a text file, pre-processing your data, Java, etc. Personally I think they are just a tool for confirmation and understanding. Some people have been able to get them to work to trade automatically. I haven't. Even those who do get them to work have documented that it is a constant battle dealing with degradation of performance and when to retrain. I haven't quit my day job based on any of this so take everything with a grain of salt. Then again, only a fool would quit my day job, but that is another story. Before you get too involved, allow me to make a comment. I've been trading on and off seriously for about 13 years and semi-seriously for an additional 10 years. In all this time, the only thing I have come across that can consistently get you in on the right side, make you money even if you make mistakes, and doesn't require much time or energy, is the Hershey method as espoused here by Spydertrader. The only reason why I continue my data mining studies is to help me to understand what is going on and to hopefully create a profile of the ideal DU stock on the daily watchlist. It is not necessary to do this!
PointOne, Well said! Chiefraven (and anyone else interested in datamining and neural nets), PointOne in a single funny sentence has illustrated what I attempted to say in closing my previous post. Read and heed! Simple is best. JP
I am curious what you folks are thinking about NVEC? It still has rank, but I am considering removing it from my universe. Mistake? It has been in dryup and getting tighter and tighter but for some reason I feel like it has lost it's rank potential. I guess I will wait and see.
In my youthful trading vigor, I often get excited about a position I've gotten into, and it isn't working out as planned. I'm learning however, thankfully to Spyder and Gooch, that there are almost limitless opportunities - there really is another train just 5 minutes away. Capital preservation is of utmost importance - so I'd rather take a pizza home and watch the stock rocket up later, than tie up my money in something that's not "working" right. (I got out of NFLX with a $30 profit) Good trading to everyone -Au