SIGM also signaled a trade this morning. Average DU was 120,809. SIGM had traded 80,286 shares by 10:30. Price was 9.13. This was .54 above the previous day's close. Stochcastics were 84.29 and 75.75. MACD was positive. It did not acheive FRV by EOD and was closed at 8.81 for a 3.5% loss.
Thanks for posting your results. I didn't receive a trade signal this morning, but I believe that is due to the different Dry Up Volume calculations used between the two of us - rather than data source variances as we have seen in the past. Make sure you aren't combining several variants of the Hershey Methodology into one. If you use the 'Dry Up Volume Range' Chartscript, we determine In Dry Up / Not In Dry Up by using the High Band (Which in the case of SIGM is roughly 180,000). If you are going to use Average DU, then SIGM would not have been "In Dry Up" on the previous day (average dry up=120,000 and Previous day Volume = 150,000). Based on the volume for SIGM and the (attached) chart, you may have simply experienced a False Breakout (FBO), but I wanted to make sure your current methodology utilized a consistent calculation. I hope you find the above explanation helpful. - Spydertrader <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=732985>
2005-04-21, Thursday - Lists I used RS Setting of 90 and EPS Setting of 80 for the following lists Stocktables.com Sevens - Ones - Zeros FFIV - CDIS - HP IRIS - PTEN - MCRS UTHR - CMC - CEDC JOYG - ELOS - NXTP APCS - MCRI - URBN JLG - SNDA - NSS LCAV - CMTL - ISRG NXTP - MDRX - MFLX CEDC - KOSP - USPI SNHY - ANTP - CCJ Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual Hotlist ANTP SNHY MFLX ELOS MCRI SNDA FFIV Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data Watch List DCAI - DU Cycle - DU5 TASR - DU Cycle - DU5 FRD - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 SYNA - DU Cycle MFLX - DU Cycle ELOS - DU Cycle SIGM - DU Cycle EZPW - DU Cycle SNDA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 PARL - DU Cycle LCBM - DU Cycle SPTN - DU Cycle BCSI - DU Cycle JUPM - DU Cycle Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score) DCAI - 0 EZPW - 7 Eyeball Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks SNDA (Attached) Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero DCAI TASR ELOS JUPM Wealth-Lab DU Volume Range - Hershey V2.0.1 / QCharts Data Dry Up Stocks and G33M4K Master List Score EZPW - 7 JUPM - 0 SNDA - 7 TASR - 0 Stocktables Sort/Qcharts/G33M4K Equations/ Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist DCAI 0 ELOS 0 FORD 0 TRGL 0 USG 0 XXIA 0 MFLX 2 GDP 4 FFIV 6 EZPW 7 SNDA 7 SNHY & ANTP failed to make the Final Universe List due to insufficient float. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=732986>
2005-04-21, Thursday - Update Our system generated three signals this morning when actual volume exceeded calculated 50% pro-rata Dry Up Volume. The first signal occurred with LCBM, but a quick check of the average daily volume for LCBM shows less than optimal levels. As a result, I did not take any action with respect to trading LCBM, and plan to delete LCBM from the Final Universe List at the end of the month based on its average volume. The Second signal occurred at 10:22 AM with MFLX. We see price improvement ($19.70, up $2.18 from previous day close at time of signal generation). MACD (+.2007) and The Stochastic Indicator (97.1146) fell within desired parameters. As a result, I enter into a long position with MFLX. 04/21/05 10:24:37 19.76 19.75 19.76 1500 Target Price: $21.73 Initial Stop: $18.82 Our third signal of the morning occurred at 10:30 AM with EZPW. We did not see price improvement ($13.08, down .63 from previous day close at time of signal generation). MACD (+.0122)was only slightly positive, and The Stochastic Indicator (43.5566) fell outside desired parameters. As a result, I took no action with respect to EZPW - either long or short. - Spydertrader
Only slightly so. Using $69,000 USD account as a basis and a 5% initial stop loss on the per share purchase price of $19.76 USD, my risk calculator indicates a maximum share size of 1468 - using 2% risk for the account. I'm certainly not going to fret over 32 shares. - Spydertrader Edit: I found the Risk Calculator posted in another thread and shared by another ET Member. I also posted a copy of the same calculator earlier in this thread.
2005-04-21, Thursday - Update Depending on the method used for Dry Up Volume calculation, MFLX may or may not have exceeded FRV levels. Several methods indicate that it has, while a few methods indicate that it has not. As a result, I plan to hold the 1500 shares MFLX at least until tomorrow. - Spydertrader
Spydertrader, Looks to me like, that at the time of signal generation, MFLX was already up 11% on the day. I know you to typically be extremely risk adverse, and although this stock didn't gap up, it did rise in price considerably from last nights close. What were your thoughts when you entered the trade? Personally, I am surprised you took the trade, so I would be interested to get your insight. Also, I have noticed that a few of the stocks in your universe are currently unranked using the Hershey Equities Rank 2.0.1. MIPS is a good example of this, an unranked stock that you took a trade in. You indicate that aside from using WL to calculate rank, you use a "manual" method... can you go into this and why it is different? Are you allowing some tolerance levels to the 20% rule? This is assuming that you track rank daily (give or take a day or two) and would eliminate a stock as soon as it becomes unranked. Thanks again, and good luck on the MFLX trade.
While MFLX had already improved in price by 11%, the price appreciation occurred over time. Unlike gapped stocks (that often fill retreating back from their gap open price) gradual price improvement often continues for a few days if volume levels support such price increases. Because price had already moved a great deal, I didn't anticipate reaching the target price of 10% gain. However, I anticipated price continuing to rise providing a smaller gain. Now, I don't mean to say that I think price won't make the full 10% - just that I didn't anticipate it doing so. In addition, by moving my stop intraday yesterday with the MIPS short, price crossing my stop price caused me to miss out on the full run. As a result, I decided not follow the price up as closely today allowing a little more "wiggle room." I don't immediately delete each stock that loses its rank. Often a stock that loses a rank resumes its ranked status after a few days. Although not the case with MIPS, 'tenured stocks' remain in the list even without rank. We have a few other examples of stocks that will probably get the axe very soon. TASR with its recent earnings miss (currently listed as nil) and LCBM with lower than desired average daily volume are two examples of such stocks. I keep them around a while just to make sure. Earlier in the Journal, I posted dkm's Assessment Sheet for use with manually calculating rank. An additional copy can be found at the MSN Jack Hershey Strategies Web Site. I use the manual method less frequently now (only rarely). Occasionally, a manual method indicated a rank, while the Wealth-Lab Method did not (or vice-versa). The differences arise from how The Wealth-Lab Chartscript calculates a 20% gain (low to high). The 20% rule is a 'minimum' gain we look to see. Greater than 20% is always nice. Because a stock might resume its ranked status within a few days of losing its rank, I now drop the unranked stocks (unless they have 'tenured' status) at the end of each month. So, while MIPS no longer had a rank, it still had a spot in the Final Universe List. As a result, it still had trade eligibility. Thank-you, I may need it. The indicators didn't provide me with a conclusive signal, and as a result, I went with the majority and held. I hope you find the above information useful. - Spydertrader
2005-04-22, Friday - Lists I used RS Setting of 90 and EPS Setting of 80 for the following lists Stocktables.com Sevens - Ones - Zeros ASPM - URBN - NSS FORD - VPI - CTSH MFLX - ADSK - LCAV USNA - NXTP - AFFX SRDX - ACI - HP SNDA - CMTL - USPI WWCA - PTEN - LSS MACR - JLG - CHTT PRGS - CDIS - USG IPS - ANTP - AAPL Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual Hotlist ANTP FORD MFLX SNDA USG Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data Watch List DCAI - DU Cycle FRD - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 EXM - DU Cycle ELOS - DU Cycle SIGM - DU Cycle - DU5 MSB - DU Cycle - DU5 PARL - DU Cycle - DU5 GDP - DU Cycle JUPM - DU Cycle - DU5 COGT - DU Cycle Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score) DCAI - 2 Eyeball Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks JUPM (Attached) Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero ELOS Wealth-Lab DU Volume Range - Hershey V2.0.1 / QCharts Data Dry Up Stocks and G33M4K Master List Score COGT - 5 FRD - 5 JUPM - 5 PARL - 5 SIGM - 5 Stocktables Sort/Qcharts/G33M4K Equations/ Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist ELOS 0 USG 0 XXIA 1 DCAI 2 FFIV 3 GDP 5 PARL 5 FORD 7 MFLX 7 SNDA 7 TRGL 7 ANTP failed to make the Final Universe List due to insufficient float. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=734024>