2005-04-14, Thursday - Update Our system generated two signals today. Actual volume exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume for both CUTR and SYNA. Unfortunately, neither equity showed price improvement at time of signal generation. As a result, I took no action with respect to trading CUTR or SYNA. However, the 500 shares of CUTR held from a previous buy triggered our trailing stop. Therefore, I sold the 500 shares of CUTR at the $18.82 price point resulting in a small gross profit of $135.00 USD (.27 per share). - Spydertrader
2005-04-15, Friday - Lists I used RS Setting of 90 and EPS Setting of 80 for the following lists Stocktables.com Sevens - Ones - Zeros ALDA - CYH - JOYG USG - ELBO - FFIV HP - LCAV - FTO PTEN - MHR - COL NEWP - URBN - AFFX USNA - APCS - PTEN VPI - XXIA - NSS VLCCF - NXTP - ANTP EEFT - CMTL - NEWP ---- - MDRX - SYXI Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual Hotlist ANTP XXIA USG FFIV ALDA Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data Watch List DCAI - DU Cycle TASR - DU Cycle - DU5 FRD - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 MFLX - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 EZPW - DU Cycle - DU5 MIPS - DU Cycle Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score) EZPW - 2 MFLX - 5 Eyeball Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks FORD (Attached) Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero FRD TASR Wealth-Lab DU Volume Range - Hershey V2.0.1 / QCharts Data Dry Up Stocks and G33M4K Master List Score EZPW - 0 FRD - 0 MFLX - 3 SINA - 0 TASR - 0 Stocktables Sort/Qcharts/G33M4K Equations/ Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist DCAI 0 EZPW 0 FFIV 0 MFLX 0 MIPS 0 TRGL 0 XXIA 0 USG 1 ELOS 2 GDP 2 FORD 5 ALDA & ANTP failed to make the Final Universe List due to insufficient float. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=728503>
200504-15-2005, Friday - Update Our system triggered a signal this morning when actual volume for EZPW exceeded calculated 50% pro-rata Dry Up Volume at 10:00 AM this morning. We did not see price improvement ($13.39, down .87 from previous day close). MACD (-.0758) and The Stochastic Indicator (1.0763) fell outside desired parameters for entering into a long position. However, for those interested parties that have studied shorting Hershey Equities, EZPW makes an excellent candidate due to its price, volume, MACD and Stochastic levels. As we have discussed many times in the past, The Jack Hershey Equities System focuses on trading from the Long Side. The vast majority of Jack's posts archived throughout the internet only rarely discuss shorting Hershey Equities. As a result, shorting Hershey stocks falls outside the scope of this Journal. However, I have entered into a short position with EZPW. 04/15/05 10:03:02 13.39 13.39 13.40 1000 - Spydertrader
Thank-you for the kind words. Price for EZPW continued to fall throughout the morning to well below our 10% target price of $12.05. Unfortunately, I didn't receive the best fill. 04/15/05 12:19:15 12.08 12.01 12.08 1000 The resulting sale of EZPW provided us with a $1.31 per share gross profit ($1310.00 USD) for a percentage gain of 9.78%. Although actual volume levels for EZPW exceeded FRV levels by EOD, experience has shown that exiting early (rather than holding overnight) when shorting Herhsey Equities reduces risk. Our system failed to trigger any additional signals today other than the EZPW short trade. - Spydertrader
News Most likely reason for EZPW undergoing such a dramatic reduction in price on Friday: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050415/payday_lending_stocks.html?.v=3
So are you applying the Hershey principles in reverse when shorting stocks? If I understand correctly, this stocks was selected out of the Hershey Universe, no? Furthermore, do you have short candidates every morning before the market opens? How profitable are these shorts during the up markets? Thanks and take care.
In a manner of speaking, yes. If we look at Jack's Jokari Window, we see that falling price with rising volume allows us to anticipate a trend continuation. We apply this axiom to our long positions each day. With shorting, we still look for trend continuation, but we look to have that continuation occur in the opposite direction. IF one looks to short Hershey Equities, once a volume trigger occurs, we look for our indicators to confirm an opposite view from our decision-making with regard to entering long positions. As a result, we want falling price, negative MACD, and a Stochastic Indicator below 20. Also, the 25% pro-rata volume levels normally work better for shorting - allowing one to enter the trade with the first down move normally occurring in the early morning. With EZPW, I simply neglected (read forgot) to set a 25% pro-rata volume alert, and as a result, missed the first signal on EZPW for the morning. Correct, I select each stock to trade from our daily Watch List. The daily Watch List comprises equities from our Final Universe List (Hershey Universe) that find themselves "in dry up" the day before. No, I do not have a list of "short candidates" assembled before the market opens. Each morning, I look to enter into a long position. However, I can only trade what the market provides. When market dynamics fail to provide tradeable signals from the long side. I immediate evaluate the volume signal to determine if it falls within the desired parameters for shorting. Just as the long signals occur with less frequency and strength in falling markets, so too do short signals occur with less frequency and strength in rising markets. Because of the increased risk associated with shorting high quality stocks such as Hershey Equities, I have rarely held a short beyond EOD. Since beginning the Journal last September, the short trades have outperformed the majority of long trades - meaning the shorts have more frequently achieved or exceeded our target goal of 10%. However, I have had significantly more signals to trade from the long side since the Journal began, and thus, more profits generated from long trades. You are most welcome, and thank-you again for your contributions to the Journal. Disclaimer: Jack Hershey has written very little regarding shorting Hershey Equities. Due to the limited 'shorting' information available from Jack Hershey, the methodology used for shorting resulted from email conversations between myself and a fellow trader residing in Belgium, and not, directly from Jack. As a result, I continue to place the majority of my focus within this Journal on trading from the long side. Because of the inherent added risk associated with shorting any equity, those individuals new to trading in general, or new to trading Hershey Equities in specific, should continue to focus on trading from the long side until they possess a thorough understanding of the methodology involved.
2005-04-18, Monday - Lists I used RS Setting of 90 and EPS Setting of 80 for the following lists Stocktables.com Sevens - Ones - Zeros AFFX - PGIC - XXIA JOSB - CMTL - QSII CMN - APCS - EEFT CYH - FORD - ISRG LNCR - WWCA - ELOS ATVI - VPI - JOYG ELBO - CELG - GDP USNA - NXTP - HUM PGIC - MDRX - LCAV ---- - ---- - VLCCF Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual Hotlist FORD XXIA ELOS GDP CMN Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data Watch List DCAI - DU Cycle TASR - DU Cycle - DU5 FORD - DU Cycle - DU5 FRD - DU Cycle TRGL - DU Cycle MFLX - DU Cycle MSB - DU Cycle - DU5 BCSI - DU Cycle SINA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 COGT - DU Cycle Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score) HANS - 0 MFLX - 6 Eyeball Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks FORD (Attached) Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero FORD TRGL MSB BCSI SINA COGT Wealth-Lab DU Volume Range - Hershey V2.0.1 / QCharts Data Dry Up Stocks and G33M4K Master List Score TASR - 3 TRGL - 0 Stocktables Sort/Qcharts/G33M4K Equations/ Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist ELOS 0 FORD 0 GDP 0 TRGL 0 DCAI 2 FFIV 2 USG 2 XXIA 2 MFLX 6 <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=729888>
2005-04-18, Monday - Update Our system triggered a trade signal this morning when actual volume on FORD exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume at both the 25% and 50% pro-rata levels. We did not see price improvement ($11.41, down $1.24 at time of signal generation). MACD held at negative levels (-.1789), and The Stochastic Indicator (28.1376) fell outside our desired parameters. As a result, I took no action (either long or short) with respect to trading FORD. - Spydertrader