Unfortunately, back when I started trading, I didn't keep records such as ROI. I kept a log of all my Hershey Trades in a handwritten notebook (as Jack recommended) in order to differentiate my Hershey Profits from other profits derived from the other trading methods I used, and I have never had the time to recreate the trade log in digital format. Although I could never figure out a way to accurately backtest Jack's Methodology, I ran a few tests and posted them to the MSN Web Site listed at the beginning of this thread. Others posted their results as well. I have managed to obtain a screen shot of the results file for you. Hopefully, the attached file answers a few of your questions. The first trade (for the Journal) executed October 1, 2004. The last trade closed Friday, March 18, 2005 - a span of almost six months. Prior to beginning the Journal, I had more trade signals (and more trades), but fewer winning trades (lower percentage of winning trades). I cannot say for sure if posting to the Journal has improved my discipline to 'follow my own rules to the letter,' but I have had an improved percentage of profitable trades since beginning the Journal. In a bear trend market, the system produces fewer trades with shorter duration, and during rising markets an increase in both frequency of signal generation and trend strength (increased profits) occurs. Sideways markets fall somewhere in between. I hope that answers a few of your questions. Edit: Initial starting capital to trade these methods: $50,000 USD. - Spydertrader
2005-03-22, Tuesday - Lists I used RS Setting of 90 and EPS Setting of 80 for the following lists Stocktables.com Sevens - Ones - Zeros TU - ATVI - HUM ELOS - WWCA - JLG FTO - MACR - HOLX CMTL - NRG - ACI CUTR - USG - CMC USNA - MIPS - MT VTIV - SGTL - PTEN CMC - ISRG - AKS ACI - MDRX - CCJ PACT - MHR Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual Hotlist CUTR PACT ELOS MIPS USG SGTL Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data Watch List DCAI - DU Cycle - DU5 FORD - DU Cycle - DU5 TASR - DU Cycle - DU5 FRD - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 SYNA - DU Cycle COGT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 MFLX - DU Cycle - DU5 BCSI - DU Cycle MIPS - DU Cycle - DU5 SIGM - DU Cycle LCBM - DU Cycle TOPT - DU Cycle - DU5 SINA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 SNDA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 USG - DU Cycle - DU5 SGTL - DU Cycle ULBI - DU Cycle ISSC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score) SINA - 5 SYNA - 1 Eyeball Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks FORD (Attached) Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero FORD TASR FRD COGT LCBM SNDA USG ISSC ULBI Wealth-Lab DU Volume Range - Hershey V2.0.1 / QCharts Data Dry Up Stocks and G33M4K Master List Score COGT - 0 MFLX - 5 MIPS - 5 SINA - 5 SNDA - 0 SYNA - 5 TASR - 0 Stocktables Sort/Qcharts/G33M4K Equations/ Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist GDP 0 KEYW 0 PMTI 0 TRGL 0 DCAI 1 MFLX 1 SGTL 1 XXIA 1 PARL 2 PGIC 2 TOPT 2 ELOS 5 MIPS 5 PACT fell from the Final Universe List due to negative EPS. The following Stocks have been ADDED to the Final Universe List as of 2005-03-18: USG. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=710636>
Thank you. Finally, I have a record to show other that Jack Hershey's (stock) method is profitable in live trading. Like you, I know his trading style since year 2000 from Usenet surfing. You are doing tremendous job. Goodluck.
Based on my calculation for the 6 months having a win-rate over 80% and return per month about 6% based on $50,000 equity, I have to say the performance so far has been impressive. Do you think your method and its performance could still make profits consistently regardless of any overall market conditions for changes in the future, due to limited test has been done systematically?
Mike L., Maybe we can get thru this together? First thing is you need eps and rs data. qp has it. Not sure if you can get it elsewhere. Here is my #include file for using ami. I use this whenever I need qp data. Dividend=getextradata("anndividend"); Shares=getextradata("Shares"); sharesfloat=getextradata("sharesfloat"); issuetype=getextradata("issuetype"); sharesout=getextradata("sharesout"); sharesshort=getextradata("sharesshort"); ttmsales=getextradata("ttmsales"); Beta=getextradata("Beta"); ttmeps=getextradata("ttmeps"); hiperange=getextradata("hiperange"); loperange=getextradata("loperange"); PEG=getextradata("PEG"); instholds=getextradata("instholds"); ltdebttoeq=getextradata("ltdebttoeq"); cashflowpershare=getextradata("cashflowpershare"); ROE=getextradata("ROE"); ttmsales=getextradata("ttmsales"); yr1epsgrowth=getextradata("yr1epsgrowth"); yr5epsgrowth=getextradata("yr5epsgrowth"); yr1projepsgrowth=getextradata("yr1projepsgrowth"); yr2projepsgrowth=getextradata("yr2projepsgrowth"); yr3to5projepsgrowth=getextradata("yr3to5projepsgrowth"); bookvaluepershare=getextradata("bookvaluepershare"); Briefing=getextradata("Briefing"); qrs=getextradata("qrs"); hasoptions=getextradata("hasoptions"); epsrank=getextradata("epsrank"); Next is some code I quickly wrote up to get me started. Take a look at it and see if I am missing something or if you have a different idea on how to code it. It is not complete. #include <QP3.afl> #include<Rolling Stocks2.afl> //6-Month Relative Strength >= 80 //EPS Growth ytd vs ytd High As Possible //Last Price >= 25 //Avg. Daily Vol. Last Year <= 400000 //Avg. Daily Vol. Last Year >= 200000 //A=getextradata("Shares"); B=MA(Shares,65); D = B <= 400000; E = B >=200000; f = Beta >= 0.6; //G = MA(qrs,160) >= 80; G=qrs>=80; H = epsrank > 80; I = C >= 10; J = C <= 50; //K = MA(EPSRank,160)>=80; //L = Filter=D AND E AND f AND G AND H AND I AND J;// AND K AND U AND V; addcolumn( Close, "Close" ); //L = MA(rsrank,252)>=80; //getextradata("briefing"); /* gives briefing text (STRING) */ //Graph0 = getextradata("qrs"); /*gives Quotes Plus relative strength (ARRAY) */ Regards, nt
After 5 years trading with real money, now you must be very surprising to find out at least one learner can make it works, finally.
Jack Hershey has traded methods similar to these since 1957 if memory serves me correctly. While I cannot predict what the future holds, I suspect Jack has traded in a variety of market conditions over the last 50 years. One small change that has helped me in the past to adapt to changing market conditions is to alter the hold period. Currently, I use a maximum hold period of 4 days. - Spydertrader
If your trading method after learning from Jack for years represents a typital example of Jack's complete method, I just don't understand why none of you the capable students would not write up something clear and concise systematically, that would perfect the method to some degree, I believe. I can see some shorts in your sheet. Would you mind to summarise the conditions for shorting a stock? Other than the maximum 4 days holding, is there any clear guildline or conditions for exits (profit and loss)? Initially you used about 20% equity each stock (I assume you trade only one stock at a time). However, you recently used more than 50% equity for COGT. Is it also part of Jack's way to trade size? Again, what are the conditions to increase size? Thanks.
Many find Jack Hershey a difficult read. I too encountered numerous challenges interpreting him in the beginning. Over time, one tends to develop an understanding of the message Jack tries to convey (at least for me it worked this way). In addition, Jack doesn't hand you everything at once. His educational style imparts bits and pieces to the student over a period of time in an attempt to insure each facet of the system becomes instinctual to the aspiring trader. Also, several iterations of the system exist - both from what Jack has taught, and what others have developed. Depending on where and when one first stumbled across the teachings of Mr. Hershey, one notices subtle differences in technique. By example, Jack Replaces Wilder's RSI with Warden's Balance of Power, and today, we use Accumulation / Distribution. Other differences exist between Jack the teacher and his students of the past. The system Jack uses from his home (equations developed for an older version of tc2000 and posted within the Journal itself) differs from our use of the stocktables.com web site. Jack began teaching the stocktables.com method here at ET around two years ago if memory serves me correctly. Lastly, the attempt to quantify the exact nature of the Dry Up Volume calculation differs greatly from Jack's use of an 'eyeball' method of Dry Up Volume Calculation. These many differences have resulted in much confusion over the correct path to follow. This Journal encompasses my efforts to compile all the available information regarding the Hershey Methodology into one clear and concise tool for learning. The Jack Hershey Equities System remains a predominantly Long Alone System. Jack has only spoken briefly about the conditions required for successful shorting of the Hershey Universe. I have often recommended developing an expert level understanding of the Long Side before attempting to take on 'short' positions. However, a brief (but not all inclusive) summery of shorting criteria (that I use) would be: Stock "in Dry Up" the previous day, 25% of pro-rata Dry Up volume exceeded the morning of trading, Negative MACD, Stochastics below 20. Jack has suggested tightening of the stops and permitting price to "take you out" when the 'score' for a stock reaches 4. I have used MACD crossover, Volume pace change, time stops, and price targets in the past with various degrees of success. I plan to attempt to mimic Jack's "Score Exit." on the next trade. Each trader has their own comfort zone with regard to risk. Earlier in the Journal I discussed using a maximum position size allowing for 2% risk of one's trading capital. Jack advises dividing the trading capital into various "streams" for making money and trading those streams daily. I have yet to achieve the same results as Jack Hershey, and as a result, I continue my efforts toward that goal. Occasionally, I break my own rules and trade larger size than I really should - based on my money management guidelines. COGT was such an example. Earlier in the Journal, I posted a trade size calculator written by another ET member. You might find it helpful. The answers I have provided above only scratch the surface of The Jack Hershey Equities System. If you have an interest in learning more, I recommend starting at the beginning of the Journal. All the steps necessary have been delineated there along with links to background material to supplement the learning process. Good Luck, and I wish you tremendous success on your journey. I hope you found the above information useful. - Spydertrader