2005-02-18, Friday - Lists I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists Stocktables.com Sevens - Ones - Zeros VPI - ANTP - PMTI HURC - CTSH - VTIV PTRY - TIBX - CMC NSS - UTHR - HOLX MRVL - ISRG - MIPS LSS - HLIT - MEE CCJ - TOPT - WCC EZPW - MFLX - FLSH UTHR - WWCA ------ SNDA Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual Hotlist ANTP TOPT MFLX HURC EZPW EZPW MIPS SNDA Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data Watch List GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 PACT - DU Cycle - DU5 ANTP - DU Cycle CUTR - DU Cycle TASR - DU Cycle NGPS - DU Cycle KEYW - DU Cycle INTN - DU Cycle ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 TOPT - DU Cycle MFLX - DU Cycle BCSI - DU Cycle EBKR - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 SNDA - DU Cycle ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 FFIV - DU Cycle HANS - DU Cycle IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 ULBI - DU Cycle SINA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score) GOAM - 0 NGPS - 7 Eyeball Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks FFIV (Attached) Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero GOAM PACT KEYW TOPT MFLX EBKR SNDA FFIV HANS SINA Stocktables Sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/ Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist EXM 0 HANS 0 ISSC 0 KEYW 0 MFLX 0 MIPS 0 PMTI 0 SNDA 0 TOPT 0 TRGL 1 MT 2 ELOS 7 EZPW 7 (GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA & HLIT have float outside normal parameters) - MT & TRGL now have float within our parameters. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=688886>
2005-02-18, Friday - Update Our system generated two signals this morning, and I ignored them both. Within 45 minutes after the opening bell, Actual Volume for TOPT & SINA exceeded calculated dry up volume. Unfortunately, price for TOPT & SINA gapped up 6.4% and 5.3% respectively. In the past, stocks that have gapped up in price have failed to perform according to my expectations. As a result, I try to avoid trading Hershey Stocks that gap in price greater than 5%. The "Gap Open" rule I use when trading Hershey Stocks, I created from my own observations. Jack Hershey does not teach gap avoidance in his original methods. Of course, your mileage may vary. For those tracking the outcome of my decision to avoid these two stocks, TOPT currently trades .42 below signal price ($20.41), and SINA currently trades .56 above price at signal ($24.42). - Spydertrader
TOPT & SINA - Update For those individuals continuing to track the outcome of my decision to avoid Friday's two signals, I provide the following updates. TOPT closed Friday at $19.88 - $0.53 below signal price ($20.41), and SINA closed Friday at $25.60 - $1.18 above price at signal ($24.42). - Spydertrader
2005-02-21, Monday - Lists I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists Stocktables.com Sevens - Ones - Zeros MDRX - SNDA - DTPI TIE - ISRG - MRVL TOPT - MIPS - CMC XPRSA - WCC - FRD ZEUS - MEE - EZPW VPI - CTSH - USNA NSS - ANTP - TIBX XTO - NGPS - CCJ BUCY - FLSH - PMTI WLL - WWCA Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual Hotlist ANTP NGPS FRD TOPT EZPW MIPS SNDA PMTI Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data Watch List GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 PACT - DU Cycle - DU5 ANTP - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 CUTR - DU Cycle TASR - DU Cycle - DU5 ANGO - DU Cycle - DU5 NGPS - DU Cycle - DU5 INTN - DU Cycle ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 TRGL - DU Cycle MFLX - DU Cycle BCSI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 EBKR - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 UBET - DU Cycle MIPS - DU Cycle ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20 FFIV - DU Cycle ULBI - DU Cycle IPXL - DU Cycle - DU5 IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 ISSC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score) GOAM - 0 NGPS - 1 Eyeball Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks SNDA (Attached) Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero GOAM PACT ANTP TASR TRGL BCSI EBKR MIPS FFIV ULBI IPXL Stocktables Sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/ Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist MIPS 0 MT 0 PMTI 0 TRGL 0 MFLX 1 ELOS 2 EXM 2 HANS 2 SNDA 2 KEYW 3 EZPW 5 TOPT 6 (GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA & HLIT have float outside normal parameters) - MT & TRGL now have float within our parameters. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=690236>
2005-02-21, Monday - Lists Due to the President's Day Market Holiday, the header on the above posted lists should have read: 2005-02-22, Tuesday - Lists I apologize for any confusion resulting from my typo. Enjoy the day off. - Spydertrader
Hi Spydertrader, I was hoping you could assist me, as I think that I am doing something wrong when calculating DU Cycle or DU 5,10,20 (or both!). Allow me to clarify. I currently use Wealth-Lab developer along with the extremely handy Hershey Equities script that you and a few others developed. To calculate the DU Cycle, I add up the lowest volumes from within each cycle, and average them over the 5 cycles. For DU 5, I work back from the most recent date of each cycle, taking the lowest volume within 5 days and averaging them over the 5 cycles. I think my DU 5 calc is correct, but I am missing something with my DU Cycle calc and here is why: if any of your stocks are in DU, they are ALWAYS in DU Cycle, but not necessarily any other DU calc, which leads me to believe that 100% of the time, DU Cycle calc comes up with a higher volume average than any other calculation. This is not true the way I calculate DU. For example: Letâs say we have three separate and different cycles (forgetting the 5 times in 6 months rule for the moment), 20% in 3 days, 20% in 5 days and 20% in 8 days. In the 3 day cycle, DU 5 could never have a higher volume than DU Cycle, but could have a lower volume, if the low volume were to happen 4 or 5 days out. In the 5 day cycle, DU 5 and DU Cycle would have to be the same. In the 8 day cycle, DU 5 could never have a lower volume than DU Cycle, but could have a higher volume, if the low volume happened 6,7 or 8 days out. Of course, this is assuming I am doing the calcs correctly, which it seems that I am not. What do you think? Thanks in advance for your help, smtrader
After reviewing your post several times to make sure I understood your methods correctly, I fail to see where you made any errors. As you progress from DU Cycle to DU5, DU10 & DU20, the value of Calculated DU Volume should decrease - resulting in a greater number of stocks in "Du Cycle" Dry up Volume and the least amount of stocks in all 4 methods of Dry Up Volume Calculation. In other words, Dry Up Cycle is the 'easiest' level of Dry Up for a stock to make. DU Cycle is an average of the lowest volumes inside the last 5 cycles before breakout. DU20 should closely approximate the results obtained from The Wealth-Lab Hershey Chartscript (not exact, but close). The DU Cycle Method for Dry Up Volume calculation was obtained from an earlier version of either Max Gainz or Vorzo's Chartscripts on the Wealth-Lab.com web site. When I began the experiment for determining which method of Dry Up Volume calculation best anticipated a breakout in price, I anticipated one method would prove superior to the rest. After six months of tracking, no one method stands out above all others. I wasn't sure if you were using the lowest volume in a cycle or the lowest volume before breakout in a cycle. The lowest volume before breakout should calculate a higher level of DU Volume than the lowest volume in a cycle. The biggest problem with attempting to automate Dry Up Volume calculation remains the fact that "Dry Up" can last a while before a breakout occurs in both volume and price. Unfortunately, no one method seems to capture the spirit of Jack's 'eyeball' method. - Spydertrader
2005-02-22, Tuesday - Update SINA up huge before opening bell. http://tinyurl.com/69z8q - Spydertrader
2005-02-22, Tuesday - Update Today we witnessed the highest number of signals generated by the system during the last six months. The Hershey Equities System generated six signals in all this morning. Many occurred right after the opening bell continuing on throughout the morning. The following discussion describes each signal and the decisions associated with it. I have listed the signals in order of their Hershey Rank (not the time when signal generation occurred). Using a 50% pro-rata volume trigger (for the DU10 Dry Up Level), ELOS created a signal just after 10:30 AM this morning. However, we did not have price improvement at that time. As a result, we ignore the signal at take no action with regard to ELOS. We witnessed EBKR generate a signal also using the 50% pro-rata volume requirement this morning. However, EBKR's signal resulted from the DU20 Dry Up Volume Calculation. Although we do see price improvement, EBKR continues to have an average daily volume below our desired parameters. Not wishing to enter into a position with a "thinly traded" stock, I ignored this signal and take no action with regard to EBKR. MIPS generated a signal this morning when actual volume exceeded the 50% pro-rata calculation on the DU Cycle method of Dry Up Volume Calculation. Unfortunately, we fail to see price improvement with MIPS, and as a result, ignore this signal as well. We briefly consider the possibility of shorting MIPS as the MACD (-.0583) looked good. However, The Stochastic Indicator (25.4443) held at a level above our desired 'shorting' parameters. As a result, we take no action - either long or short - with regard to MIPS. Actual Volume for IPXL exceeded 50% pro-rata calculated Dry Up Volume within 15 minutes of the open. (The volume trigger occurred using the DU5 Method of Dry Up Volume calculation, although actual volume did exceed both DU Cycle and DU5 Dry Up Volume levels prior to 11:00 AM.) We had price improvement. Both MACD (+.0165) and The Stochastic Indicator (92.1055) fell within desired parameters. As a result, I entered into a long position with 1000 shares. 02/22/05 09:47:37 17.35 17.33 17.35 1000 I continue to monitor IPXL throughout the afternoon anticipating actual volume levels reaching FRV status before the close. If Volume and price continue to increase, I expect to hold overnight. However, if both volume and price fail to improve, I plan to sell for a 'wash trade.' IDSA also triggered a signal this morning when actual volume exceeded the 50% pro-rata Dry Up Volume calculation using the DU10 method of Dry Up Volume Calculation. However, as we have seen in the past, IDSA continues to have an average daily volume well below our desired parameters. In addition, IDSA failed to show price improvement. As a result of these two factors, we ignore the IDSA signal and take no action with regard to IDSA. Lastly, ISSC generated a signal this morning using the 50% pro-rata Dry Up Volume levels. We did not have price improvement. By time signal generation occurred, both MACD (-.2323) and The Stochastic Indicator (25.0175), had reversed their downward slides and began to slope upward. As a result, I felt it unwise to enter into a short position. Because we appear to have no clear cut signal for either long or short, I take no action with regard to ISSC. By 11:30 AM, actual volume for the stocks discussed above reached the following levels of Dry Up Volume Calculation: ELOS - DU10 EBKR - DU10 -DU20 MIPS - DU Cycle IPXL - DU Cycle - DU5 IDSA - DU5 - DU10 ISSC - DU5 - DU10 IPXL: Target: $19.09 Stop: $16.48 I hope you find the above information useful. - Spydertrader