2005-02-08, Tuesday - Update Our system triggered a signal this morning as actual Volume on TASR almost immediately exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume. However, the significantly large gap open in price combined with a failure to show price improvement cause us to take no action when it comes to TASR. Some may have been considering going long TASR at the open based on "the majority of gaps fill" rule. Consider this move carefully based on the following news item. http://tinyurl.com/7xylg - Spydertrader
2005-02-08, Tuesday - Update Our system generated a second signal this morning as actual volume on NGPS exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume near 10:00 AM this morning. Price showed improvement over the previous trading day and held at $24.25. Both MACD (+.2068) and The Stochastic Indicator (85.6569) fell within normal parameters. However, NGPS has a float well below our desired parameters. As a result, I do not take this trade. Other traders, that don't place such emphasis on following the 'float rule' may have decided to trade NGPS, or if one had NGPS listed as a "tenured stock," you may have taken the trade as well. Neither situation applied to me, and as a result, I take no action with regard to NGPS. - Spydertrader
Spydertrader, First, let me express my appreciation for your great journal. I have been following your journal for a while and it's been very helpful for me. The only problem is my hotlist are almost always different than what you post here. I tried to figure the reason out by going through previous posts, yet I thought it would be better ask and make sure I am not mistaken. According to your post: "The Second list of ten stocks comes from the top and working down, selecting only stocks with price gains." Having this in mind, my hotlist consists of: ACU - not in your list! NNI EZPW GEHL - not in your list! DTPI MIPS MSB ANGO ALDA - not in your list! PTRY Is the reason their lack of appropriate volume (less than 200,000) and does the volume condition hold for 7's as well. Also, PPC is not on your list of 1's, is it for any specific reason? Another confusing thing is that sometimes the stocks that appear on your hot list, do not have a rank according to WL chart script. For example HLIT does not appear to have a rank using the chart script located at: http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/W...system?id=32994 Once, again thank you for the great journal and sharing your knowledge and experience with others. Faryar PS. I apologize for any inconsistency in my English. Speaking English as a second language, my writings are not flawless.
Variances in lists occur from time to time based on several different factors. The most common reasons for these differences in the past have been: 1. Stocktables.com data download error. For whatever reason, the downloaded list of socks I use to calculate my list fails to contain all the stocks listed on the web page list. When this "data download error" occurs, normally the first or last few stocks fail to make the downloaded list. 2. Too few stocks in the original sort. Whenever the original sort produces a list with the number of stocks in the low 70's, errors creep in as some stocks end up in two different lists. 3. Failure to post sorting criteria correctly. In order to get an appropriate number of stocks in the original sort, I often have to alter EPS and RS rank. I have in the past either A. Neglected to change the sorting criteria back to default, or B. Failed to post that I changed the EPS and RS rank. 4. "Culling Order" in which one sorts the stocks. If one removes any stocks that fail to meet EPS, Float and Average Volume criteria before creating one's lists, we arrive at much different lists. 5. Confusion resulting from posting an unclear explanation. Although I try to choose my words carefully in order to avoid any misinterpretation, I don't always meet my objective. occasionally, some of the instructions I have posted have been less clear than I intended. After reviewing both lists, I noticed all three stocks had volume less than 200,000 on the previous day. For this reason I did not include them in my lists. Yes, their volume excluded them from my lists. I apologize for any confusion I may have created on this matter. The instructions posted earlier in this thread I copied directly from one of Jack Hershey's posts. I assumed he meant for the 200,000 previous day volume rule to apply to the sevens list as well, and I calculate my lists in that fashion. Even though we look at stocks that cycle 5 times in a six month period, PPC has about a year of stock history available for this equity. Jack has stated he prefers a longer history available. His answer came in a response to the possibility of trading IPO's with his methods. Although a stock may fail to rank using the Wealth-Lab Chart Script, it may still possess a rank using manual methods. Although the Wealth-Lab Chart Script saves time and works quite well, it isn't perfect, but it was as close as I could get using my limited programming skills. In addition, a stock might temporarily lose its rank on one day, and due to price action over the next few days, obtain another rank. For this reason, I "clean up" the Final Universe List once a month (at month's end) eliminating stocks at that time that do not have a rank (manual or chart script rank). When I first began the Journal, I started with a group of stocks that I had traded over the past several months to create my original Final Universe List. Over time, additional stocks have been added, and many have fallen off the list. Some of the original stocks still reside in the list, and even though they have issues with float or volume, they also have tenured status (stocks previously traded and traded profitably). As a result, you may arrive at different results than my posted lists. The variances however, may not have resulted from error on your part or mine. We simply arrived at the same place using different routes. No need for an apology. I found your post easily understood, and had you not informed me you used English as a second language, I never would have guessed it. I hope you found the above information helpful. - Spydertrader
Becuase the method of culling is so dependent on specefic data points, I would like to request that when posting that we all include within the post the source of the data we use at each step we are discussing. As an example: Master List (Stocktables): blah blah blah Price/EPS/Float (QCharts): blah blah 7/1/0: (Yahoo): blah I am hoping that this will allow for each of us to do our own homework and help find the reasons why the data sets may not agree at times and of course in the end allow for a more accrate analysis of the JH methods. COmments? Nice to see everyone is still together, great job Spyder! Ross
Good idea. I have altered my posting template to include the data sources and automation tool used for various list creations. - Spydertrader
2005-02-09, Wednesday - Lists I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists Stocktables.com Sevens - Ones - Zeros CUTR - WWCA - CCJ EZPW - TOPT - VTIV STTX - JOYG - MDRX SYNA - MT - ANGO ADBL - HLIT - ISSC ISRG - NTAP - DTPI MFLX - HOLX - WITS PTRY - UTHR - NSS SNDA - XPRSA - CMC FRD - NGPS Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual Hotlist CUTR NGPS ANGO MFLX TOPT FRD SYNA EZPW ADBL HLIT SNDA ISSC Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data Watch List GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5 - Du10 PACT - DU Cycle - DU5 IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - Du10 - DU20 KEYW - DU Cycle ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5 TOPT - DU Cycle - DU5 - Du10 BCSI - DU Cycle EBKR - DU Cycle - DU5 - Du10 - DU20 COGT - DU Cycle - DU5 - Du10 - DU20 ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - Du10 - DU20 JUPM - DU Cycle GMAI - DU Cycle ULBI - DU Cycle - DU5 IPXL - DU Cycle - DU5 GDP - DU Cycle MT - DU Cycle BLTI - DU Cycle - DU5 Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score) EBKR - 1 ESMC - 5 KEYW - 1 NGPS - 7 Eyeball Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks EXM (Attached) Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero GOAM ELOS TOPT COGT Stocktables sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/ Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist ALDA 0 ANTP 0 TOPT 0 MFLX 5 MIPS 5 FRD 7 NGPS 7 (GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA, MT, HLIT have float outside normal parameters) The following Stocks have been ADDED to the Final Universe List as of 2005-02-07: ISSC & CUTR. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=683648>
2005-02-09, Wednesday - Update Our system triggered a signal this morning when actual volume for GMAI exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume at 9:47 AM. Price for GMAI held at $12.85 providing the price improvement over the previous day. MACD (+.0038) and The Stochastic Indicator (81.2117) Fell within desired parameters. However, the average daily volume (127,000) for GMAI falls below our ideal levels. As a result, I take no action with GMAI. Traders with a comfort level trading equities outside our ideal parameters may have decided to take the trade. The following link provides the earnings report on GMAI from early this morning: http://tinyurl.com/6nwb5 - Spydertrader