Cool. No need for me to make revisions then. If it ain't broke ..... Let me know your thoughts regarding the revised entry criteria I spoke about several days ago. So far, this new set of criteria would have kept us out of two losing trades, and signaled a buy on two winning trades. Although my hypothesis requires additional testing before causing a change in my trading methods, I feel we might find ourselves closer to the 'spirit' of Jack's methods. Again, I need to test more before arriving at any conclusions. - Spydertrader
When it comes to equities, I will always defer to your judgement and knowledge. Why? Becasue 1) You have been spectacularly successful at this 2) My specialty is day trading index futures. I'm still trying to adjust my mind set to holding securities overnight. As JH stated many times on Paltalk, even if one were to become highly profitable in index futures, it is recommended that one uses some of the funds in stocks trading in order to maximize the money velocity (to put it in JH terms. ). So I will have to learn this eventually. Right now, I'm just following your lead and you have not failed us yet. Take care.
I altered the settings at the stocktables.com web site in order to obtain the correct number of stocks: RS: 80 - EPS: 90 Sevens - Ones - Zeros NXTL - JUPM - TKC AMHC - CKFR - MRVL CSE - CYTC - ALDN DVA - RIO - AMX AMSG - EAGL - NTAP AFFX - DRIV - NIHD URBN - JCOM - SINA NTAP - STZ - KSWS YHOO - ET UPL - SEM Hotlist ALDN JUPM SINA Watch List IDSA - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 - DU20 ESMC - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 - DU20 BCSI - DU Cycle - Du5 TASR - DU Cycle LWAY - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 - DU20 CALM - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 HRT - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 - DU20 EVCI - DU Cycle - Du5 JUPM - DU Cycle ENWV - DU Cycle GDP - DU Cycle HANS - DU Cycle - Du5 BAMM - DU Cycle PETD - DU Cycle DECK - DU Cycle VSEC - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 GMAI - DU Cycle - Du5 LSCP - DU Cycle LIFC - DU Cycle ANIK - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 - DU20 SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up ANIK ENWV MKTW VSEC G33M4K Score for the above Stocks ANIK - 0 ENWV - 7 MKTW - 1 VSEC - 0 Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks LIFC (Attached) Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero ANIK HANS GMAI PETD VSEC (VSEC, IDSA, HRT, LWAY, NVEC & NGPS have float outside normal parameters) <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=644949>
Thank-you for your kind words. However, much of the credit belongs to everyone contributing to the thread. I appreciate the efforts and input of everyone participating (including yourself) and those following along learning the methods. When I first transitioned from only trading the QQQ, DIA, & SPY intraday (hence the alias), I experienced great difficulty in the psychological aspect of 'holding overnight.' As a 'day trader,' I ended the day flat, in cash, without ever experiencing any overnight risk. Once I worked through the mental obstacles I created in my own mind, I realized I had actually reduced my risk by trading Jack's methods - overnight hold or not. Proving the methods could produce gains, in my first tests posted on MSN, went a long way helping me to alter my mindset. Once I realized the risk resulted from mainly my own mental creations, I no longer worried about overnight holds. I suspect you will experience a similar shift in mindset. - Spydertrader
Hi Spydertrader I know when people have asked for a track record of this system, you have referred them to certain links. I looked at those links, but could not find references to results. My results have been flat for the last three weeks, so I am curious if you would please tell us how the signals indicated on this thread have fared (it's a very long thread so am not going to go through manually and calculate it - I'm guessing you keep a record). If the thread's picks have averaged gains lately then I need to revise my system. Cheers
Attached, please find a spreadsheet containing the results of all actual trades. This spreadsheet does not include the "paper trades" used in the analysis of the revised entry criteria. However, while we have experienced several signals this week, our entry criteria prevented us from taking on any trades. Therefore, I too could describe the last week as 'flat' in terms of results simply because we haven't taken on any trades this week. I hope you find the above information useful. - Spydertrader
Thanks Spydertrader Very good results! One question - why the significant volatility in position sizing? I wonder what the effect would be if a constant 2% risk to stop or some other position sizing method was used. I agree re: few signals lately - the prices of most of my watchlist (about 50 stocks currently) are turning down. Not ready to short yet - trying to perfect the long system.
My position size varies based on four distinct factors: 1. The portion of my account used to trade Jack's Methods. 2. Risk of 2% 3. Stop loss of 5% of the current price. 4. Current price of the stock. Protecting my trading capital remains my single most important objective. Meeting this objective requires I maintain a risk of no more than 2% (of the capital used to trade the system) on any one trade. Because I use a stop loss of 5% of the underlying equity price, that loss (if triggered) cannot exceed 2% of my trading capital. Keeping in mind the first two objectives, we trade a large price range of stocks - between $15.00 - $55.00 USD. One trade (UBET) had us in a stock trading at three dollars. Clearly, even with maintaining the 5% and 2% parameters, one has the ability to trade increased shares on lower priced equities - higher priced shares reduce the number of total shares purchased. I use the risk calculator (posted earlier in the thread) to determine my share size based on the four criteria above. I then "round down" to an even lot number - further insuring reduced risk. In a post early in the thread, I briefly discussed the importance of money and risk management, and posted a link to a web site with detailed discussions explaining a variety of methods used. Would use of a different method improve my results? Possibly, but different risk and money management rules might also increase my risk of loss. My goal remains minimizing risk while maximizing money velocity. It is not by accident that I placed risk of loss ahead of maximizing profit in the previous sentence. Of course, your mileage may vary. During this week, I haven't received the correct signals required to take on a short trade either. Of course, based on the current time of year, this isn't too surprising. Remaining patient provides a constant challenge, but experience has taught me that sitting on my hands until the correct trade signals appear, prevents 'forcing a trade' which usually results in a loss. - Spydertrader
At just after 10:00 AM, our system signaled a possible long trade with LWAY when actual volume exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume. We had price improvement over the previous day (price at 10:04 AM held at $9.74). MACD looked very good (+.0844) and The Stochastic Indicator (+82.6623) also fell above our desired parameters. Unfortunately, LWAY has a float outside our system criteria. As a result, we cannot take the trade. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LWAY LWAY's 2 million float contains too few shares for us to take a trade. Since LWAY is not a tenured stock, I do not take this trade. - Spydertrader
Spydertrader, I have a question regarding TASR. I see you have this on your watchlist as well. According to my numbers, it looked like it exceeded prorata volume this morning (around ten-ish), had price improvement, along with positive MACD and stoch in the 90's on the 30min fractal. Going long in the high 26 dollar range would have resulted in a positive trade so far (although is seems to have fallen off a bit now). Did you pass on this trade, or did it not set-up according to your parameters? Just for clarification, I am qualifying a stock based on my highest calculated DU volume for that day, and then looking for trades based on volume exceeding the lowest calculated DU volume the following day. Does this sound correct? Thanks for your help, -JohnC99