Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Sep 25, 2004.

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  1. svrz

    svrz

    Hi JC

    I hope you are doing well. Are these tenured stocks?

    Take care
     
    #271     Oct 28, 2004
  2. I recall seeing both FARO and CREE in the many 'Hershey Lists' posted to the MSN web site and here on ET (over a year ago). If memory serves, both equities trended rather well back then. Hopefully, the pattern continues for you this time around. Your contributions are always appreciated.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #272     Oct 28, 2004
  3. Sevens - Ones - Zeros
    MKTW - JUPM - MRVL
    LSCP - NAVR - ARTC
    TKC - ARO - CREE
    CTSH - TASR - UTHR
    CRI - HTCH - CNC
    PPDI - EWBC - CTXS
    JOSB - EAGL - PENN
    TS - YHOO - HDWR
    FFIV - DECK - KNGT
    DDN - DPTR - UPL

    Hotlist

    TASR
    FFIV
    MKTW
    JUPM
    NAVR

    Watch List

    TASR - DU Cycle
    HRT - DU Cycle - Du5
    VSEC - DU Cycle
    ESMC - DU Cycle - Du5 - Du10 - Du20
    NVEC - DU Cycle - Du5 - Du10
    BCSI - DU Cycle - Du5
    IDSY - DU Cycle - Du5 - Du10
    CALM - DU Cycle - Du5 - Du10
    LWAY - DU Cycle - Du5 - Du10 - Du20
    ANIK - DU Cycle - Du5
    TRMM - DU Cycle - Du5 - Du10 - Du20
    HANS - DU Cycle - Du5 - Du10 - Du20
    JUPM - DU Cycle
    LIFC - DU Cycle - Du5
    NAVR - DU Cycle - Du5
    SMTS - DU Cycle - Du5 - Du10 - Du20

    Wealth Lab Equations

    ESMC
    TRMM
    VSEC

    Scores for above Stocks

    ESMC - 0
    TRMM - 1
    VSEC - 0

    (HRT, VSEC, NVEC, IDSA, LWAY have float outside normal parameters)

    We have added both MKTW & FFIV to our final universe list bringing the total to 35 stocks.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #273     Oct 28, 2004
  4. dkm

    dkm

    n.b. MKTW very thin average volume
     
    #274     Oct 29, 2004
  5. They are tenured stocks. Lets see what happens. Hopefully no flaws show up but they happen all the time. When they dont work out, I just exit for a wash usually over a loss and rotate into a different stock. I also had ARTI but had to exit as it has earnings today.
     
    #275     Oct 29, 2004
  6. The system signaled twice today when actual Volume exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume for both ANIK and vsec. The first signal (ANIK) occurred without price improvement. MACD was also negative (-.0031) with a falling stochastic Indicator (49.1112). clearly, we fail to confirm a buy signal on the long side. Therefore, we take no action in regards to ANIK.

    However, for those individuals looking to SHORT the Hershey Stocks, ANIK provided an excellent opportunity. When volume triggered our signal, price on ANIK held at $12.89, MACD was negative and The slope of the Stochastic Indicator pointed down (with green line BELOW the red line) - signaling trend continuation on falling price. Trendline Analysis confirmed the probability of falling price (See attached Chart). In addition, the Master List with Scoring Excel Sheet scored ANIK a three (downslope of our stock cycle).

    We set a Short Sale target price of 10% ($11.60) and stop loss of 5% ($13.54). Using the Money management guidelines previously discussed we take a 1% risk using 700 shares, and enter short. At 11:40, ANIK hit our price target, and we cover.

    10/29/04 11:40:54 11.60 11.50 11.60 700

    It is important to note, that using a MACD crossover exit strategy would have yielded results closer to 15%, but we never want to allow greed to influence our trading decisions. Waiting for MACD to cross over into positive territory would have had us hold onto anik until price reached $10.95.

    For the record, shorting Hershey stocks falls outside the scope of this journal. As a result, I will NOT include the results of the above trade in calculating rates of return. Although Jack Hershey himself has briefly discussed the possibility of shorting his equities methods, The Jack Hershey Equities Method remains a long only system as described by Jack in the large volume of documents available.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #276     Oct 29, 2004
  7. The second stock to trigger an alert was VSEC. However, VSEC has many problems associated with it preventing current consideration. First, VSEC has an average volume well below normal parameters. Second, the float for VSEC falls outside normal parameters. Third, the price for VSEC gapped up 14.4% at the open placing it outside our normal comfort zone when trading stocks that gap. Our rules indicate declining trades that gap higher than 10% due to reduced probability of reaching our target price points with this group of equities. As a result, we take no action when it comes to VSEC. Since the market remains a dynamic entity, we leave VSEC in our list of 'Final Universe' list of stocks until such time it fails to achieve a rank.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #277     Oct 29, 2004
  8. In a previous post, we discussed the possibility of lowering our target price of idsy due to trendline analysis indicating a reduced likelihood of price reaching our 10% target. In addition, the possibility of market instability as we enter the final weekend before the United States presidential election suggests we protect our profits against the possibility of an unforeseen event (detrimental to the financial markets) occurring over the weekend. As a result of the above two factors we liquidate our idsy position (625 shares remaining) at the $14.90 price point. The resulting sale provides a $1.00 per share price improvement over our initial purchase price.

    In regards to ubet, we liquidate our shares at the $3.20 price. The resulting sale provides a 20 cent price per share improvement on 2800 shares. As I indicated in a previous post, we will NOT tabulate profits from ubet in the results of this journal. Although the sale did result in profit, I failed to receive a stop loss alert last week while out of town. As a result, I failed to sell when price reached our stop loss target. While this fortunate circumstance did improve my trading account, including the profits would skew the results of this journal.

    By end of day, we remain 100% in cash heading into the weekend.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #278     Oct 29, 2004
  9. svrz

    svrz

    Outstanding work, Spydrtrader. Please keep this up!
     
    #279     Oct 31, 2004
  10. I appreciate the enthusiasm and the contributions made by everyone to the success of this thread. As long as there remains an interest, I plan to continue the discussion well into the new year. Again, thanks to everyone for their input, contributions and interest.

    Happy Halloween!

    - Spydertrader
     
    #280     Oct 31, 2004
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