Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Sep 25, 2004.

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  1. Using the Wealth lab Chart Scripts created by srvz, the following stocks appear to have various levels of Dry Up Volume.

    ESMC - du2
    HANS - du1 - du2 - du3
    SWIR - du3
    TASR - du1 - du3
    TRMM - du1 - du2
    UBET - du1 - du2

    The Chart Scripts srvz created resulted from translating Jack Hershey's seven TC2000 equations posted by dkm in misc.invest.technical on USENET (See Tiny URL in srvz post above). I only scanned the 33 stocks in our final universe list to arrive at the above list of Dry Up Stocks.

    Using the Master List with Scoring created by g33m4k, scores for the above listed stocks are as follows:

    ESMC - 0
    HANS - 2
    SWIR - 4
    TASR - 0
    TRMM - 2
    UBET - 7

    While The Chart Scripts currently require additional testing and analysis to determine their exact function and use, on the surface, it appears as if srvz has provided us a useful tool to add to The Hershey Toolbox.

    In a never ending effort to improve performance, I will continue to monitor the results of these methods in addition to the current set of criteria I use in the Journal. As always, contributions are appreciated and encouraged.

    I hope you find the above information useful.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #211     Oct 14, 2004
  2. The system generated no signals today as volume remained low on our watch list stocks. Continuing to monitor UBET, we see price dropped a few pennies from yesterday on low volume to this point. We will continue to monitor UBET and the other stocks derived from The Newly created Chart Scripts throughout the day.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #212     Oct 14, 2004
  3. Sevens - Ones - Zeros
    PPDI - TASR - IMH
    DDN - URBN - KNGT
    ADS - ARTI - TNP
    GIVN - PENN - RRGB
    GDP - CRDN - TRMB
    SIE - DPTR - ELNK
    BSTE - CFC - MRVL
    PETD - HRT - FFIV
    EAGL - INSP - UPL
    TRMB - CYTC - CTSH

    Hot List:

    TASR
    HRT
    DPTR
    CRDN
    PETD

    Watch List

    TASR - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
    HRT - Du Cycle - DU5
    NVEC - Du Cycle - DU5
    IDSA - Du Cycle - DU5
    UBET - Du Cycle
    IDSY - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
    LWAY - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
    ANIK - Du Cycle
    SWIR - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
    ALDN - Du Cycle - DU5
    DPTR - Du Cycle - DU5
    HANS - Du Cycle
    CRDN - Du Cycle
    EVCI - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
    LIFC - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
    NAVR - Du Cycle
    ENWV - Du Cycle
    SMTS - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
    HLEX - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
    LSCP - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10

    (HRT, NVEC, IDSA & LWAY have float outside normal parameters)

    Wealth Lab Seven Hershey Equations Dry Up Stocks:

    ESMC - DU2
    HANS - DU1 - DU2 - DU3
    IDSA - DU1
    SWIR - DU2 - DU3
    TASR - DU1 - DU3
    TRMM - DU1 - DU3
    UBET - DU1

    Scores for the above stocks using Master List with Scoring v.18.xls:

    ESMC - 2
    HANS - 2
    IDSA - 5
    SWIR - 2
    TASR - 0
    TRMM - 2
    UBET - 4
     
    #213     Oct 15, 2004
  4. Apologies for my quietness... I've been doing an extreme amount of homework and due diligence regarding putting pieces together. A few may disagree with version 19 but I will be more than willing to discuss ad nauseum the mechanics, and how evrything fits together conceptually. Version 19 is not complete, but it will be many steps forward. Eventually, I will apply aesthetics so that one can actually watch the transitions day to day. But I'm getting way ahead of myself right now. Too much to code right now given that I am limiting myself to raw materials (ie. nothing more than a spreadsheet)...

    Let me preface everything here by saying I am looking for 1 thing at this point, MAXIMUM money velocity. Velocity is a derivative, in our case a rate of price change with respect to change in time. The mathematical derivative here is extremely important to having the ability to anticipate. No one seams to be discussing it so I am bringing it up and hopefully I can get answers. Otherwise, I'll slip back into a pseudo solo effort.

    So why am I trying to stress the use of the derivative of PVA/D as another tool. Simple! Money Velocity. I position myself as though I am participating in a racing game, the objective of the racing game I play is to accumulate the most points. 1 Point is earned for 1 Distance unit traveled. For us, our distance is Price. Thus using the fastest car ensures us the best use of time to achieve the greatest distance/points/price accumulation possible as set by the game/market. If everyone is in our car, it is irrelevant, we all remain at the top of the leader board with an even greater reward thanks to PV. Surprisingly, everyone jumping into the car speeds the car up. Think about it w.r.t. the PV relationhsip.

    It seams, many investors limit themselves to a few cars which at times are sluggish. Many investors are jaded because they see they have alot of points but don't consider the best way to accumulate points in this race. We will think outside of the box and look at the entire race by simply hopping in to whichever vehicle is traveling with the greatest velocity at each instant/time period depending on one's own preference. We are measuring the speed of our equity vehicle as the rate of price change (Money Velocity). Many expansions on this can be made to deepen comprehension. Hopefully, I will be able to extrapolate the most important.

    Just as an example, price is a discrete time function I identify as P[t] (bracket notation to keep track of the fact that the price function is discrete). Our function P[t] has a derivative P'[t] which is the rate of price change for each fractal instant t. Pulling up ANY graph of a function and it's derivative (one on top of the other), one thing pops out from the graphs.

    The peaks of the derivative function, P'[t], tell us the exact points on the original function, P[t], where there is the maximum amount between two instants. THIS IS NO ACCIDENT for all the 5th graders out here and may require some pre-calc! The crossing over by P'[t] from positive to negative tell us EXACTLY where a relative price peak has occured I will explain this at some point later if people inquire. Using the troughs and peaks of P'[t] we realize why we want to "buy late and exit early" and this is UNARGUABLY, as efficent as any investor/trader could ever hope to be if in fact one could observe all equity vehicles simultaneously.

    Using derivatives, this maximum rate of price change (maximum money velocity) will occur exactly at the peaks of P'[t] for long investors. How does this tie in to buying late exiting early? Essentially, since the duration of the race is as long as there are markets, the winner is defined as the current leader and thus this supposed "HOLY GRAIL" will CONTINUOUSLY in real time capture all of these points from across the entire range of EQUITY vehicles since this is the most winning strategy. As far as I can tell, no one could possibly have done this or even come close, but nonetheless, we strive. Let me explain. At any fractal instant there is an equity or a set of equities which has the highest rate of price change in the market. Since we earn points by simply accumulating price distance, we use buying late, exiting early as our reminder of our race strategy. Thus we at all times choose and switch into the fastest equity vehicle amongst our culled FINAL UNIVERSE of vehicles. This is what will separate beginners from intermediates undoubtedly... I am still a beginner who hasn't jumped into a single vehicle as of yet, but the relationship is extraordinarily clear and simple.

    So the question now remains how do we find the fastest vehicles given our final universe of equity vehicles. Since our vehicles are in continual motion, we need to observe this price change rate (derivative of the prices aka Money Velocity) of the equity vehicles we are observing. Because of our PV relation, I am also interested in velocity. But firstly what's the discrete time math for a derivative. I'm assuming I can take Riemann's or Newton's approach on a non-finite level. After reading thru hundreds of pages of threads MACD seams to be a recurring approach. I'm sure many are using indicators because they were either informed to or have NLP's validating that they work. However, excellence we'll require us to understand how to calibrate these items as the market dictates/shifts/globalizes/etc... There is a subtle difference between a MACD(5,13,6) and MACD(5,12,6) but how does the market tell me which one to use. I am eager to work out how to differentiate and calibrate as needed. Results should not tell us that we need to recalibrate, since that type of approach is costly. The important question here is why MACD and is it a derivative...

    G33M4K still a Newb

    PS... This is all a verbalization of
    Jack's equity strategy.
     
    #214     Oct 15, 2004
  5. Hopefully, the following post provides some clarification regarding your question.

    I hope you find the above information useful.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #215     Oct 15, 2004
  6. Actual volume failed to exceed calculated Dry Up Volume on any of our Watch List stocks again today. As a result, we take no action. Since MACD and Stochastic remain positive on UBET, we hold our shares.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #216     Oct 15, 2004
  7. Here is a chart with channels for UBET. Could you post your corresponding Daily chart?
     
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    #217     Oct 15, 2004
  8. LOL... Jack was very subtle in a genius way. COATTAILING is a great way to increase the speed of the car, and correctly so. This is why having a physical broker has it's benefit. PV. Think about it...

    G33M4K Newb & Luvin It!
     
    #218     Oct 15, 2004
  9. My hats off to you. You clearly are a master of being on the right side of the channel. Great Chart...

    G33M4K the Newb
     
    #219     Oct 15, 2004

  10. Thanks Spyder. The posting seams to say that the indicator will smooth out the price graph. Thus I will still be looking at either a Price or relative Price value... Y/N? Can anyone enlighten? If in fact MACD is a smoothing function, perhaps we can look at the rate of change of MACD... Does anyone have any light?


    G33M4K the Newb

    PS
    G33M4K is pronounced G-MAK (hacker spelling/convention)
    I am not a hacker... My coworkers call me this because they're
    credit traders and see the ticker GMAC all the time and it's similar
    to my actual name. Like the credit, I hate it but it makes a great
    alias....
     
    #220     Oct 15, 2004
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