Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Sep 25, 2004.

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  1. 2005-05-10, Tuesday - Update

    This morning I monitored one list of stocks (5 total equities): Those equities from our daily Hot List and from our Final Universe List finding themselves "In Dry Up."

    Dry Up Stocks

    EXM EZPW MCRI SYNA XXIA

    Our system generated two possible trade signals from the list of five Dry Up Stocks when actual volume exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM.

    Dry Up Stocks Triggering Signal

    EXM EZPW

    Dry Up Stocks NOT Triggering Signal

    MCRI SYNA XXIA

    Of the two signals generated, one of the equities failed to show price improvement (EZPW), and as a result, we eliminated EZPW from further consideration.

    EXM did show price improvement and met all criteria at time of signal generation.

    Time: 9:33 AM
    Price: $16.58
    MACD: +.1529
    Stoch: 83.5714
    Score: 0
    FRV: 286,860 shares
    Target Price: $18.28
    Initial Stop: $15.79

    As a result, I entered into a long position with respect to EZPW purchasing 500 shares @ $16.62 USD.

    05/10/05 09:34:17 16.62 16.52 16.62 500

    With respect to the TASR trade, I sold all shares at the $11.01 price point shortly after purchasing EXM. Based on our initial purchase price of $9.74 USD, selling 2900 shares of TASR yields a gross profit of $3683.00 USD for a 13% gain.

    05/10/05 09:44:14 11.01 11.01 11.02 2900

    Last night, I indicated that I might "break with convention" and sell TASR without holding the entire 4 day cycle should my 'comfort level' with the TASR trade erode. After watching TASR open lower only to rebound into positive territory, I recalled several previous trades where a similar price action resulted in a slow price degradation throughout the remainder of the trading day. As a result, I exited the trade.

    The TASR trade represents the largest single dollar profit trade (and the second highest percentage gain) since I began the journal.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #1101     May 10, 2005
  2. pismo10

    pismo10

    Beautiful.
     
    #1102     May 10, 2005
  3. Hi:

    The TASR short was a nice trade. People may not understand the risk you had to assume to make that profit. You sold 2900. It could have surprised you as TASR is a volatile issue prone to significant moves on news. You had to monitor it and accept overnight risk. Nice job. Good discipline.

    Lefty
     
    #1103     May 10, 2005
  4. 2005-05-10, Tuesday - EXM Update

    Actual Volume for EXM exceeded calculated FRV levels by EOD. In addition, actual volume on EXM exceeded Peak Volume levels. The last time such a huge volume spike occurred with one of our Hershey Equities, I sold on the same day only to witness a significant price appreciation the following day. As a result, I continue to hold 500 shares of EXM overnight in anticipation of additional price improvement. I have however moved my stop level to the $16.92 price point in order to protect against giving away too many unrealized profits.

    Although traders showed little interest in MCRI prior to our 11:30 AM time frame, significant volume increases occurred with MCRI after 11:37 AM. As a result, MCRI reached FRV levels for volume by EOD. Unfortunately, I had left my computer screen during the afternoon, and entirely missed this signal. One of these days, I'll eventually learn to monitor more closely the equities which fail to trigger a morning trade signal.

    Overall, we experienced a pretty good day. Good to see multiple trade signals occur on a day when most of the overall market basically went into the sewer.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #1104     May 10, 2005
  5. 2005-05-10, Wednesday - Lists

    Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology
    Hershey Chartscript Scans / Qcharts Culling / Stocktables.com Sort

    Hot List

    DCAI ELOS FORD MCRI SNDA TRGL USG

    Dry Up Stocks

    BCSI SIGM SYNA

    Hot List Stocks Scores

    DCAI - 5
    ELOS - 0
    FORD - 0
    MCRI - 7
    SNDA - 2
    TRGL - 0
    USG - 0

    Dry Up Stocks Scores

    BCSI - 0
    SIGM - 0
    SYNA - 0

    Keep an Eye on These Stocks

    MCRI (Attached)

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=745946>
     
    #1105     May 10, 2005
  6. 2005-05-10, Tuesday - Update

    This morning I monitored one list of stocks (3 total equities): Those equities from our daily Hot List and from our Final Universe List finding themselves "In Dry Up."

    Dry Up Stocks

    BCSI SIGM SYNA

    Our system generated one possible trade signals from the list of three Dry Up Stocks when actual volume exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM.

    Dry Up Stocks Triggering Signal

    SIGM

    Dry Up Stocks NOT Triggering Signal

    BCSI SYNA

    Our single generated trade signal, SIGM, failed to show price improvement, and as a result, we eliminated SIGM from further consideration.

    Right at the open, EXM began to show price degradation as price fell towards our trailing stop of $16.92 USD.

    As a result of price triggering our protective stop, I sold all 500 shares at $16.92 USD. Based on our initial purchase price of $16.62 USD, selling all 500 shares of EXM yields a gross profit of $150.00 USD for just under a 2% gain.

    05/11/05 09:54:05 16.92 16.92 16.93 500

    More important than the actual dollar gain, I learned a valuable lesson. When peak volume occurs, even on the first trading day, it is a signal to take profits. Failure to follow this rule cost me over 40 cents per share of unrealized profit.

    I hope you find the above information useful.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #1106     May 11, 2005
  7. 2005-05-11, Wednesday - Update

    None of our Dry Up Stocks (BCSI SIGM SYNA) reached FRV Levels by EOD.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #1107     May 11, 2005
  8. 2005-05-12, Thursday - Lists

    Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology
    Hershey Chartscript Scans / Qcharts Culling / Stocktables.com Sort

    Hot List

    DCAI ELOS FORD MCRI SNDA TRGL USG

    Dry Up Stocks

    BCSI ELOS JUPM MCRI MFLX SYNA

    Hot List Stocks Scores

    DCAI - 2
    ELOS - 0
    FORD - 4
    MCRI - 5
    SNDA - 0
    TRGL - 0
    USG - 7

    Dry Up Stocks Scores

    BCSI - 0
    ELOS - 0
    JUPM - 0
    MCRI - 5
    MFLX - 4
    SYNA - 7

    Keep an Eye on These Stocks

    MCRI (Attached)

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=746815>
     
    #1108     May 11, 2005
  9. odelys

    odelys

    Hi Spydertrader,

    SIGM would have met the criteria for a short trade. As the stock trades below 10, I didn't take it (which has proven to be right in the end).

    CU
    Odelys
     
    #1109     May 12, 2005
  10. odelys

    odelys

    #1110     May 12, 2005
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