Mike, Thanks for sharing your insights and ideas with us. I'm finding them very helpful as I try to incorporate channels into my trading. Doug
So, anybody like me get ripped a new one with NGAS this morning? :eek: Also, I believe KNDL presented a signal, but I was away from the PC.... Perhaps Spydertrader had the right idea....take the week off...
Mike, There's a fairly logical, mathematical reason that stocks in an uptrend could give better returns. Let's make the following two assumptions: 1) The cycles are traverses within in a channel from the bottom to the top. 2) We expect that the cycle will end at the top of the channel. 3) A cycle is 20% Excluding breakout cases there are now three possible channel configurations: Horizontal Channel if the channel were perfectly horizontal then we could expect our stock to cycle 20%. Uptrending Channel However, let's say that the channel is moving at a rate of 0.5% per day. In 4 days this would mean that the channel itself would rise about 2% in the 4 day hold period. Add to that the 20% cycle we assumed and you would have a 22% theoretical gain from edge to edge of the channel. Downtrending Channel The reverse would be true for a channel in a downtrend. You would subtract the channel rate from your 20% cycle. When we measure the 20% cycling capability, we already include this effect in the measurement of the 20% move. Still, using this logic it would appear that an uptrend can only help. One possibility is that a better measure of rally strength or rank might be to measure the average width of a channel exclusive of its slope. Look for 20% channel heights and then if you are in an uptrend it could only be gravy on top, but you would still have the potential for the 20% jump even in a downtrend. Another thing to think about is that if all the 20% cycle measurements were made while the stock is in an uptrend, does it still have the capability to make that cycle while in a downtrend? Maybe not. The channel width is the true measure of the amplitude of the cycle, while the trend is additive (in a plus or minus sense). Some fuel for thought. Have a merry Christmas everyone. -ace
I was watching NGAS but did not get a signal. If my memory is still working, when it hit LBDUV it was starting to make a big move down and Stoch were below 50 and MACD was negative. However, I may have been away from the computer when duv was exceeded. As it went down quickly on that bar, I may have been lucky to be away at that moment. HOpe you do well on your other trades. I did not have KNDL in DU list. I did enter a trade in ENER and so far, it's OK. Doug
I was watching ENER DCAI FORD JMDT KNDL LUFK NGAS this am. I went long ENER @35.20 sold @35.63. I also traded NGAS but recieved a short signal so I am still short from 11.50 my stop is currently 11.16 but I will move down if it breaks support here @11.10. Good luck trading. Dan
Dan, Why did you close the ENER trade? Also, I looked over my universe and somehow KNDL was omitted, so thanks for pointing this out. I agree with your list, except KNDL, and I also have LIFC. DS
I had a signal for NGAS right after the open.....a couple of trades in and it was already past DU volume, STOCH was above 80 and MACD was positive.... Obviously, people were positioning themselves for the energy report that was released around 1030....that's when the stock collapsed.... Either way, TONS of volume in this one today....I wonder if this stock would have acted any differently no matter what that report stated....lol
Sorry for the confusion dougcs, my trading system (Price, Volume, A/D variant) uses many of the same stocks that "Spydertrader" trades (CANSLIM). I should not have posted my ENER trade since my system differs from Spydertraders. I rarely hold a position past 1-2 days. My indicators suggested ENER was toppy @35.79 Since I am taking the rest of the year off from trading to spend with family and friends I set a trailing stop @35.63 Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Dan
Just a quick note to all who pm'd me asking for the channels document. I'm travelling out of the country and am temporarily away from my computer, but I should be able to email to all who asked tomorrow or the next day. Sorry for the delay and Merry Christmas (or happy holidays) to all! Thanks, - The New Guy