Thank you for the ES Spyder. It turns out my channels are close enough to what you did to call it indentical. I will do this daily in real time for a couple of weeks and see if that jogs my brain into understanding what's really going on. I'm able to label FTT's usually 1 or 2 bars after the fact. I still don't see any correlation between volume and the channels, but my plan is to do real time channels on 5min ES for a month and then come back with some questions if I still don't see what's going on.
Spyder, Thanks for the today's annotated ES... Do you have a rule on whether or not you adjust a "tape" (or channel line) after the tape RTL has been broken? For example, on the 8:50am bar. When that bar closed higher, I made the tape adjustment so that the RTL passed through the bottom of this bar. I've gotten into a habit (bad?) of making adjustments that "widen" the tape in cases like this - more like your 2 tapes at the end of the day. To reduce clutter, I delete the original tape after an adjustment has been made. Also, on your BO's at 11:10 and 11:40, can these be considered blue channel FBO's since the blue uptrend did not change within a few bars? In both cases, the RTL was only briefly broken before resuming in the direction of the blue channel. I also adjusted the blue channel around 11:15+ (ala Bearbelly's red channel). Of course, after the adjustment, it's clear that these were red channel FBO's. This is one area where I struggle a bit with real-time channels. One could say that there was a blue channel BO for a bar or two and very quickly became a red channel FBO. I assume this is where one has to drill deeper in the sweeps. I'm not there yet... Any comments would be appreciated. Have a good weekend, spooz
The more you practice watching for the FTT in real time, the more proficient your skills become. When I started, I didn't notice the FTT's until way after the fact. Believe it or not, something that helped me was to move away from the monitor every so often. The increased distance helped me to see 'the bigger picture.' The only adjustments I make to the dominate channels (thick lines) involves the addition of increased volatility channels onto the left side of the trend. With respect to the 'tapped' channels, I may on occasion adjust the taped traverses if a 'mini-point three' forms (see 12:10 AM to 12:20 AM & 15:25 PM to 16:00 PM time frames) This just seems to make sense to me. In addition, I always added increased volatility channels on the tapes. With respect to the Blue Channel BO's, I normally label a BO on a chart if price stays outside the channel for a few bars or more. Since the important thing is to trade the FTT to the next FTT (or FBO / BO), I labeled the BO's as such to avoid confusion. In other words, if price closed outside the channel, I called it a BO. If not, I labelled the price action an FBO. Feel free to label your own charts in whatever fashion allows you to 'see' the action best. Good trading to you all. - Spydertrader
I do find channels and trendlines useful and I am looking at ftt's now but Im afraid I dont get it. I dont see how you can recognize an ftt until well after the fact. When do you know for sure its an ftt? On the next bar? The next bar may have a higher low than the previous bar in a downtrending traverse but then the next bar can easily have a lower low and continue on downward. Would appreciate anybodys input on how and when you know its an ftt.
My take â¦.. it is a volume correlation that enables you to draw the correct conclusion, FTTâs happen on the dominant traverses, they exhibit increased volume while price fails to make it to the left side⦠in IT channels (this is the big picture approach that enables you to see and confirm for a while) Once the belief and confidence is in place, which comes from extending lines time after time. Applying the concept using the three most recent bars gives you context for NOW, volume is at times difficult to confirm here. The history lets you know where the extreme possibilities are, how you may get there and the velocity of money on the table, the history does not necessarily work out always. Many of Spyâs fttâs are occurring within dips, hitches and stalls in the middle of intermediate term trends. Spy is very detailed with his annotations more so than anyone I have seen thus farâ¦â¦ he looks at NOW all the time and from his lines when price fails to make the connection (FTT), the airlines change gates and put you on another flight (weeeeee). I hear the water is warm in SCT landâ¦. So how do you catch that flight???? Turns out it is FTTâs that put you on it all day long. However, you must BELIEVE.... to get yourself on in time. Also take a look at the slope of the current IT channel the steeper in magnitude the less likely money can be made in the non dominant direction (slow lateral retraces) , additionally the flatter the slope the more potential retraces provide for making money. HTH EX
I have been reading some of Jack's writings from the late 90s and am particularly focused on his belief that the best stocks to trade are those that have high RS and EPS ranks. I have an extensive list of stocks that I have followed since the last quarter of 2004 for a technical trading model that I was walk-forward testing. I did not pay attention to either RS or EPS ranks in my model but I am interested in going back and analyzing the data with those two data to cull my stock results to see if performance is enhanced, degraded or unaffected. To whit my question is: Does anyone know of a database of historical RS and EPS ranks for stocks? I imagine one such possibility is old issues of Investors Business Daily but I thought first I would see if someone knew of an online alternative. It is not my intention to introduce another trading plan here. This just seems like a forum with a large number of knowledgeable Hershey students who may have the info I request.
If you practice the ability to wash (as Jack recommends), you won't need to worry about being right with respect to "was that an FTT?" As excav8ter points out, volume often confirms an FTT (instead of a hitch, dip or stall). This thinking requires a paradigm shift as to how one views the markets. As one anticipates what comes next, one looks for clues from the market to either confirm or invalidate the current hypothesis. The process doesn't stop when one enters a trade, but continues throughout the day. "I see this, I expect that." repeats over and over in your mind as one progresses through the day. You develop a plan for when the market confirms your hypothesis (enter or hold if already positioned), and one for when the market doesn't (wait, exit or reverse). It doesn't matter if right now it takes 3 bars or more for you to 'see' the FTT. Once you can see it, you can practice to learn to 'see' things faster. Understand what this paradigm shift really means. Once you 'get it' and develop sufficient proficiency to trade it consistently, you move from a win - loss mode, to a 'make a little / make a lot' mode - a far different place from most traders operate, indeed. Good trading to you all. - Spydertrader