Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Oct 4, 2005.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. I don't average my R/R Ratios because I feel doing so gives a false picture. I break it down into categories in an effort to track my ability to execute properly. For example:

    Setting aside 'wash trades' (where I earn enough to buy a small pizza :D ) for a moment, if I enter more toward the top of the channel, I look for a 1/1 ratio. In other words, Price may only have a small distance to travel before hitting the top of the trend channel. If I enter more toward the middle of the channel, a gain of 5% usually sends me packing. As a result, I usually see a 2.5 - 3 / 1 R/ R Ratio. When I enter nearer the bottom of the channel, I can grab 10%, 20%, even 30% or more on a trade. In this scenario (the home runs), I often see a ratio of 5, 10 or 15 to 1 for the R / R Ratio.

    As you can see, the profitability one cane anticipate on each trade varies greatly depending on the entry. 'Context' (discussed in a previous post) also plays a key role. A sudden change in context can see the whole paradigm thrown out the window, and as a result, I often walk away happy to simply have exited before the big crash.

    I define wash trades (for equities) as anything plus or minus $100.00 USD.

    - SPydertrader
     
    #4031     Nov 5, 2006
  2. qed

    qed

    SLW and UCTT might be considered for a final universe. Both have rank.

    I use Tradestation for Unusual Volume calculation. The base platform is free if you trade as little as 5000 shares per month. Plus you get access to futures and Forex.
     
    #4032     Nov 5, 2006
  3. Hi Spyder,

    Can you provide us with your thinking behind RNOW? As I understand it, it has been added to your FU during a phase when the stock has no rank. It seems to have a nice cyclical nature, however. I understand it's an "Outside the Box" stock.

    Also, shouldn't the other stocks that were in your FU with no rank be culled at EOM?
     
    #4033     Nov 5, 2006
  4. I ran an initial sort over at the Stocktables.com web site. After obtaining a list of stocks which met the fundamental criteria (Price, Volume, Float, Positive EPS, Insider Owned Shares), I reviewed each chart for every equity in my culled list. I looked for stocks where Price appeared to be approaching the right side of an Intermediate Term Up Channel. RNOW fit the bill perfectly.

    I anticipated some continued price degradation as RNOW approached a period of 'Dry Up.' I waited until I felt (based on watching a 30 minute chart) Price and Volume had 'leveled out' and started a new trend to the Up Side. I entered prior to Price breaking the short term down channel in an effort to either profit from the non-dominant traverse, or profit from the early launch of my boat as the rising tide lifted all boats in the Harbor. I anticipated needing a Price breach of the $16.00 USD Price Point to have, what I felt, was a confirmed change in trend. Although Price did breach the $16.00 USD price Point, it failed to close above that level. As a result, I planned to hold through any minor traverses which may result.

    I added RNOW because I currently own it. If things progress as I anticipate, RNOW should cycle for the fifth time sometime within the next week. If market dynamics invalidate my hypothesis, I plan to immediately delete RNOW form the Final Universe.

    Yes, I should have deleted all the stocks without rank at the end of the month. Although I currently still have unranked stocks in the Final Universe, I have no plans to trade them. I'll get around to deleting the unranked stocks in due time. I just haven't had an opportunity to perform my equities housekeeping in a timely manner.

    I hope you find the above information useful.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #4034     Nov 5, 2006
  5. Very much so. A very good insight into your thinking behind the trade. Thank you.
     
    #4035     Nov 5, 2006
  6. Monkman

    Monkman

    Spydertrader,


    Do you know if Tradestation 8/ Tradestation 2000i has an unusual volume calculation and 65day average vol calculation? If so what is the unusual volume listed under, I am trying to seek an alternative for qcharts. Thanks

    - Blake
     
    #4036     Nov 5, 2006
  7. qed

    qed

    Monkman.

    If you are using Tradestation as a broker you can subscribe to Radar Screen(free if you trade enough) and you can easily program the formula in as I did. And believe me I am terrible at writing code. It is a one liner. I don't think they sell the software independantly in the U.S. anymore though. Radar screen will then sort your list in real time with any canned or custom indicators.
     
    #4037     Nov 5, 2006
  8. ebulldog

    ebulldog

    Thought I'd share a headline from the LA Times real estate section this weekend:

    "Buyers wait for others to jump in. And sellers won't budge on price till neighbors drop theirs". Seems the real estate market is headed toward dry-up!

    The article is really only interesting in the parallels to the Hershey methodology. If anyone's interested, the link is below. You have to register, but its free.

    http://www.latimes.com/classified/real estate/news/la-re-psyched5nov05,1,165951.story

    Some interesting quotes:

    "Buyers waiting for prices to bottom out can cause prices to drop."

    "Instinct to follow the crowd affects market"

    "Sellers are another story. The word "denial" must have been created for them... Denial is a condition in which sellers cannot bear to part with their homes for less than what they believe they're worth"

    "when the masses believe something is a good idea, it takes a sturdy soul to resist the trends."
     
    #4038     Nov 6, 2006
  9. Monkman

    Monkman


    Qed,

    If I am not a broker is that going to be a problem? I can get the non US version 2000i so thats not an issue. I am just wondering if I can set it up like Qcharts with an unusal volume column and a 65day average volume column on my quote screen.

    - Blake
     
    #4039     Nov 6, 2006
  10. I use TS and you are able to program indicators to do these calculations. Let me know if you need help as it is fairly easy to do them. FYI, I use the Radarscreen feature for both these calculations.

    Doug
     
    #4040     Nov 6, 2006
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.