If you glance at a daily chart for GROW going back a few months, notice the significant difference between volume levels in July and August compared to September and October. Clearly, once can easily see a paradigm shift. In addition, a huge volume spike - well into peak levels - of five million shares can often alter the Dry Up Volume calculations. However, eyeballing a daily chart reveals some interesting developments prior to today's lift-off in price. We see lateral price movement combined with decreasing volume levels (the classic dry up maneuver). In addition we see Stochastic (5,2,3) head higher and a rising MACD Histogram. All these signs indicate a possible buy situation under development. The only cautionary signal occurs as price found itself in the midst of an intermediate term down trend. As a result, we appear to be trading the non-dominant traverse. Nothing wrong with doing so. We just need to keep in mind that these price runs don't always make the 10% returns - unless we happened to catch the non-dominant traverse which turns into a new trend in the opposite direction. In other words, you need to exercise additional caution when trading the non-dominant traverses, just as you would when shorting a Hershey stock as price bounced off the left trendline in an uptrending stock. - Spydertrader <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1226853>
In learning a bit more about drawing channels, I see that Spyder has drawn an IT down, yet the WL script draws an IT up (albeit slightly longer). Couldn't it be said that GROW is in fact at the bottom of the IT channel, according to the WL script? I guess it depends one's trading timeframe, however I am new to channels, and would like to know if I can use the automatic channels in the scripts, or should I get in the habit of drawing my own. How far back do you go when identifying the 3 point channel? <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1227513>
I didn't take a position in ANDE yesterday (it signaled fifh, and I just take the first four signals), but I wish I had. Congrats to those that did. With almost no downcandles at all yesterday, and with a $1 rip in 15 minutes off the opening today, wow! A great example of why it can pay off handsomly to wait for the first 15 minutes of the next day to sell if a stock doesn't make FRV by the EOD. Congrats to those that took the trade.
I might have answered my own question. Given that the stock has travelled about 16% in the last 4 days, one should be wary, given that it has almost completed another 20% appreciation. Is this a correct assumption?
The chartscript used to create the chart you attached in your post provides an 'overall' trend from a long term perspective. One should add their own trendlines for short and medium term trends. You should use a 5 to 8 day time frame for short trends as most Hershey Equities reach their 20% gains over a period of 5 to 8 days. Always keep in mind the distance price has travelled with respect to the last low compared to a run of 20% to the upside. Avoiding entry when price approaches the left trendline (in an uptrend) also helps avoid the FBO type trades. - Spydertrader
Just some observations. I recall a newcomer to this thread recently commenting on how the Hershey Final Universe underperformed overall on a strong trending day in the general market. He implied that the Hershey method wasn't good because of this observation. Yesterday and today we've observed an impressive OUTperformance of the Hershey FU over the general market. This is on days where the market was down/flat. This in my opinion is one of the major strengths of the Hershey framework. A trader can enter into profitable positions on days when the rest of the market is in the doldrums or even selling off. This begs the question, "How do I capitalize on overall market trending days?" The answer is simple, though the implementation isn't necessarily simple. You have to have several methods for making money in the markets to improve your odds of making money every day. The Hershey framework is one method. There are other methods for taking advantage of general market trends/trendlessness. The most profitable trader, long term, is one who's flexible and well-rounded in his/her approach to making money in the markets. No one said this stuff was going to be easy (except for maybe trading course salesmen). Learning about other markets, such as Forex, options, futures, etc. is part of this "liberal arts" education for being a profitable "Renaissance Man" of trading.
I also passed on ANDE. I see that the OMNI buyers were rewarded =) looking at JUPM right now as it just broke a pennant on decent vol. GL
OMNI looks messy. I took a position in OMNI yesterday around 8.54 average price, but exited for a wash when price ran against me on large volume. Not sure what my feelings are towards those that entered on a DU breakout and held. I'm glad they got rewarded, but think they could get burned in the future. Dunno. Given simiar circumstances, I would exit every time.