I reviewed Time and Sales for LMIA today, and I see no trade for that size. I do see a trade for just over 7600 shares five seconds after this morning's open. Just to confirm, does your data provider 'bulk' all pre-market trades into the opening print? - Spydertrader
I apologize for missing these posts earlier ... Nicely done rb. I appreciate you posting your (and the many other traders who post their trades) contributions. Keep up the great work. - Spydertrader
I don't know the answer to your question directly - I use IB and QT. I will need to find out from IB, if no-one here has had this issue before. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1204410>
Spydertrader, Although I entered a position in JOBS, I also noted that it was not technically in Dryup. We discussed this issue before with respect to using standard deviation to determine dryup, and how some stocks that may not actually meet dryup could be included within the scan. The fact that the chartscript indicated a white background made me look further and determine that volume on the signal day, Thursday, was in fact higher than UBDU, which I believe is the threshold for determining if a stock is in Dryup (let me know if I am incorrect here). I don't mean to harp on about DU being a "single" number, but I am only a beginner, and when I scan for DU, and make decisions based on DU, I am ideally interested in following the "beginner" strategy from Journal I. I'd like to kick arse with that before moving onto other types of trading, like unusual volume. So should I follow the stocks that the dryup script tells me as DU, or should I then also "eyeball" for DU on the equities chartscript and make sure the chart is green with volume levels below UBDU? (Before I then move on and eradicate JOBS altogether because of the existing position within the channel ) Thanks again for all your help.
Here are the scan results for JOBS today. Upper Band = 95,450 Average DU = 63,693 Lower Band = 31,936 JOBS's trading volume on Sept 14 is 105,000, higher than (today's) UBDU.
I understand your concerns, but 'Dry Up Volume' isn't a single number. Believe me, I conducted an exhaustive search and experimentation program looking for the one formula which would unlock the key to Dry Up Volume calculation. No such formula exists. Since we use statistics to capture 98% of the area under the bell curve, it only stands to reason we should see an error now and then (say 2% of the time). As such, with only a 9000 share difference between the cutoff, some individuals may have said, "Oh what the hell, I'll just add it." In addition, variances between data source providers, as well as, time of data updates may have yielded slightly different volume calculations for various people. We have seen such circumstances appear many times in the past - even among the same data providers based on different trader update times. Eyeballing charts does assist you with your trading. If you have the skill to do so, I recommend following this plan - review each chart for volume levels looking for 'ambient level' volume. You may catch a trade or two, or you might find doing so wastes time. 'Eyeballing' volume wasn't a skill I had in the beginning (probably a good thing too, or else I might not have made so many chartcripts ), but Jack uses eyeballing to determine Dry Up Volume, and it works for him. Or you could simply say, "I didn't have that one" and move on. Another train should arrive shortly for you to catch. I have seen a number of trades posted here where I didn't even have the symbol in my Universe of stocks. No problem. I have seen stocks traded and posted that I did not have in Dry Up - yet someone else did. Again, no worries. Far too many variances exist for me to fret over it, and far too many opportunities present themselves over time for me to worry about a handful of trades in the course of a trading year. The important things is this: Did you follow the methodology correctly? If you did, then a data variance caused the missed trade, or someone decided to bend the rule a little to include one more opportunity. We have to draw the line somewhere, and in the case of JOBS, we just happened to draw the line so close, it may not have been clear as to which side of the line JOBS fell. Over time, these things have a way of always evening out in the wash. Whichever you decide to do (stick with only using the green screen or eyeball looking for additional opportunities), as long as you remain consistant, you should continue to find success. I hope you find the above information useful. - Spydertrader
Thanks Spydertrader, your comments are very helpful. Using the "Eyballing" technique, I would be interested in your thoughts on one of the stocks that has been caught in the Dryup script for today: TIE. Looking at this chart, I would have to say that it clearly broke out of Dryup today. In fact, volume is 48% higher than the UBDU. I agree with your comments about choosing one method and remaining consistent, but I would be interested to know if TIE would be in your watch list for tonight, using only the original methodology. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1204486>
No offense, to those who fiddled with LMIA today, it has been upsticked for around fourteen days and you could see the MACD gaussian curve will soon enter into negative territory. OMNI, still, is steamy in viewing 30min./5min. charts, hope it won't take a breezer tomorrow. Others:ALJ, EZPW, NEU, NTG, TIE, TXCO,XING are worth looking into tomorrow.
The above poster was commenting on his observation of "bulk transactions" on hershey final universe stocks. I've seen this issue before myself with the IB/QT combination. When I see what I think is a bulk transation, I do a "clear all data" and do a back-fill. Quite often the bulk trans disappears. You have to be really careful around market open time and confirm your data when you get a signal. I like to let the market data stream stabilize after open for a good 10-15 minutes. In addition to these "bulk transaction" blips, I've also seen "weird" bars appear early in the session. Again, I clear all data and manually backfill. This is really important since these weird bars can affect the stoch and macd calculations and give a false signal. On a side note: Has anyone else here who uses IB/QT noticed that backfills can take freakin' forever sometimes? It drives me crazy at crucial moments.