Here are my Simulated Trades using the rules explained in my prior posts for the month of July. All Dry Up Values were created one time at at the beginning of the month ( I left this detail out in my prior posts ) and are used to trigger my trades. At the beginning of each month new dry up volume values are calculated and is used in the result summary that I am posting. All DUAvg Volume times exit rule produced negative results for July but exiting by 1130 produced a slightly smaller loss. I used DUAVG times of 1130, 1330, and 1600 in July for testing. Eyeballing the Daily Charts I noticed that CYBS was the only stock in this group in an uptrend. Monthly Index changes NASDAQ -3.9% S&P500 - 0 01-JUL-06 TO 31-JUL-06 DULOW TIME=1030 CYCLES= 5 *** * DU * Trades %Profit DUAVG < 1130 0 0 DUAVG > 1130 6 -8.1 DU Trades %Profit DUAVG < 1330 4 -3.2 DUAVG > 1330 2 -6.5 DU Trades %Profit DUAVG < 1600 4 -3.2 DUAVG > 1600 2 -6.5 THE RESULTS below were for DUAVG < 1130. The same group of stocks were traded for the DUAVG of 1330 and 1600 exit times as well. GROW 27-JUL-06 1030 $In: 19.85 27-JUL-06 1130 $Out: 19.7 % Pft: -.8 #: 1 DUAVG > 1130 DU AVG_ RES 25-JUL-06 1030 $In: 21.68 25-JUL-06 1130 $Out: 21.38 % Pft: -1.4 #: 2 DUAVG > 1130 DU AVG_ CYBS 18-JUL-06 1000 $In: 11.25 18-JUL-06 1130 $Out: 10.89 % Pft: -3.2 #: 3 STOP DU AVG_nOK NTRI 18-JUL-06 1030 $In: 64.09 18-JUL-06 1130 $Out: 63.52 % Pft: -.9 #: 4 DUAVG > 1130 DU AVG_ LMS 10-JUL-06 1030 $In: 28.47 10-JUL-06 1130 $Out: 28.07 % Pft: -1.4 #: 5 DUAVG > 1130 DU AVG_ BTUI 06-JUL-06 1030 $In: 14.54 06-JUL-06 1130 $Out: 14.48 % Pft: -.4 #: 6 DUAVG > 1130 DU AVG_
GIGM gave a nice signal today. Unfortunately I missed a good entry due to an interruption. I'm still looking for a dip to try to get in anyway. Earnings are due out on GIGM on 8/8, next Tuesday making for a nice short term play.
Stopped out of NEU at 52.41 at the 5% trailing stop. $0.52 profit isn't much considering the MFE was over $3! Maybe I need to start scaling out, Spydertrader?
Scaling out might help you - especially during these summer months when volatility normally drops off the face of the earth. With respect to your GIGM trade, you do realize you have entered significantly later than normal. Price has already moved 5%. Just something you might want to monitor. - Spydertrader
Understood. My late entry was right at the 38.2% fib retracement of today's big move up. It seems to be holding but I have a tighter-than-usual stop on it.
Attached, please find the Daily Chart of NEU. Notice when price falls below the previous day close, we also have a diverging (downward) Stochastics (14-1-3)falling below the optimal 'Hold' threshold of 80. We also see the same pattern with the Stochastics (5-2-3). These signals can provide you with in improved profit level, rather than waiting for your 5% trailing stop to take you out. Remember, stops protect the trader from catastrophic failure. We should not rely on stops for entry and exit. - Spydertrader <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1155914>