[Alpine, you are a businessman.... and I presume you do research before committing to any venture... So, how about try doing some simulated trading for a while and see whether Mr Hershey's system bears fruit? If it turns out that it does, then you can commit real money... Consider it your due digilence before buying a business.... As for long term track records, any business won't necessarily guarantee you ongoing success.... cheers.] Yes, when it comes to money or really life in general, I've always tried to make informed decisions. Unfortunately, making decisions about which methods to trade versus which businesses to buy can be very different. When researching a business, for instance, you can simply see with your own two eyes whether or not its doing well. If a business is presently doing well, its been in business for decades and the accounting matches with what you believe to be true, then depending upon the cost it might be resonable to purchase the business. In trading, all I'm saying is, that this is a less informed process. Yes, I agree, that simulated trading can give you taste of a methodology, but it won't give you the long term information that a non-sheep personality desires. Backtesting/Forward testing of course gives you some measure of reliabilty, but what I am looking for here (if possible) is just more info on the long term results of Dry-Up methodology, before I put more time into it. I'll be the first to say, nobody owes me anything.
Oddidurro wrote: The info that Jack provides is valid long term. This is a very important statement. How do you know this to be true?
Your sequence posted above appears valid. With respect to MACD, pull up a few charts during a breakout period. Notice how the MACD Histogram pops just above the zero line after remaining negative. The next bar usually shows the break out of price and volume. I have attached a partial 5 minute chart of BTUI from 05-16-2005. However, many other examples exist as well. I hope that helps. - Spydertrader <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1078851>
In my experience the 5-minute chart is too fast for this daily system and will generate many fake signals. I think that Jack suggests using the 30-minute or at most the 15-minute. Also, when you refer to Stochastic() you have to be specific %K, %D, or the relation between them, otherwise you'll get other signals. In my understanding, in his "rockets" and "icebergs I to IV" methods Jack uses the %D line, excepting the rockets' exit on the %K line.
Hi oddi, absolutely agreed. What I like about this methodology is that there is a valid and purposeful reason behind each aspect of the method. Its parameters are well defined and allows little to confuse the trader who adopts it.... as opposed to many other systems and methods I have come across over many years... cheers.
Interesting about your choice of words "non-sheep" What type of info are you looking for in particular? In trading, I have found that the scientific approach works well. All the great breakthroughs in science and technology have had little in the way of track records. The individuals involved had an idea, made observations regarding whether their idea had any validity, and then repeated the process over and over again to confirm its reliability... This is the approach I use to testing ideas about the markets.... I don't like backtesting systems, as it is so easy to get caught in the optimization merrygoround and as soon as the market's characteristics change slighlty, there we go again needing to optimize... blah! cheers.
I don't want to get off topic too much, but most scientific discoveries are based at least partially on the work of intelligent men and women that came before them. Are far as new trading ideas go, one does backtesting whether they realize it or not. They just do it visually without computer testing. Optimization can be a very effective way to determine if a variable has the potential to be over optimized. The Dry-Up methodology is a simple concept and it makes sense to me. I was hoping to hear from someone who has used it for a much longer period of time and who is willing to share his/her results. Maybe there is only one person that fits that description.
This comment is not necessarily intended for AlpineTrout, it is the result of browsing through several similar posts recently. I read more and more often posts from people who ask (polite or not) to be taught by others various trading aspects. When somebody tries to do so, those people ask for a lot of proof and results, and / or start arguing about what they're told. Some of them are asking the others to use their time in explaining before they'll put any time in learning. Even worse, some people (see Johnny...) state that they'll not share their "secrets" but ask for help from the others (!?). It feels like a lot of kids / brats invaded these forums. Like most things in life worth getting, becoming a successful trader requires a lot of learning, trial and error, keeping an open mind, doing your diligence, and ... humility.
Experience. I think I ran into Jack on this thread sometime in 2003. Since then I have attempted to FALSIFY his methods. I have been unable to do so. Science does not endeavor to prove what is, it endeavors to prove what isn't. The market structure that Jack uses and teaches cannot be falisfied. I have several charts and books from WD Gann, and even his charts demonstrate the PV relationship. Gann called it watching volume of sales. Volume will always herald a change in the direction, if even momentary, of price. Best Regards Oddi