Nor should they have appeared on the scan you ran. The above list of stocks do not find themselves "In Dry Up." You ran a scan which only looks for stocks which currently find themselves inside the Dry Up Volume envelope. Running the Ranked Stocks Scan against a watchlist of stocks obtained from the Stocktables.com web site should provide you a list of stocks very similar to the Hotlists posted previously. Hope that cleared up any remaining confusion. - Spydertrader
It must depend quite a bit on when you run the DU scan. I ran mine last night around 11:00 and produced the following stocks... FORD JMDT KNDL LIFC NGPS NTRI TRGL VIVO The same as what yharmon mentioned that he had gotten.
Normally, running the scans prior to Midnight Eastern Time insures usage of the complete data set from the previous day. The Wealth-Lab.com web site rarely waits until 9:00 AM Eastern Time the next day before updating its data sources. The stocktables.com web site normally updates its data around 8:00 PM Eastern Time (occasionally earlier). As a result, I run my scans against the Final Universe around 4:30 PM Eastern Time, but wait until later in the evening to obtain the stocktables.com data. Yesterday, I used 80 RSI and 90 EPS to obtain my initial sort from the Stocktables.com web site. Using these settings, Today's Hotlist contained the following Equities: BOOM CMCO DPTR FORD GES GMXR KNDL LIFC NGPS RNOW TIE My list of Dry Up Candidates for today contains the exact stocks as you listed above. - Spydertrader
I run the DU scan on the final universe this morning after 9:00am EST. This is probably the reason why the scan returned a shorter list. I just confirmed running the scan a few minutes ago on wealth-lab: JMDT LIFC NFLX NGPS TRGL This is my current final universe: BOOM CMCO CTHR DCAI DPTR ENER FORD GES GMXR HANS IRIS JMDT KNDL LIFC LUFK NFLX NGAS NGPS RATE RNOW RTSX SNHY TIE TRGL VDSI VIVO VPHM I am still not clear which DU list should I use and when should I run the DU scan (late night or after 9:00am). Anyway, this morning I understand there was one signal for NFLX, confirmed by FRV during the day. I'm still long NFLX. I also bought LIFC around midday after the DU LB was reached after 11:30. I will sell this position tomorrow morning as it didn't reach FRV by EOD.
Spydertrader, What does it mean when the volume exceeds peak before the price has increased by 20% I went long CTHR @ 23.99 on Monday and today volume reached 512719 well above peak 293238. I am still long but don't know what to do next... Gooch87
First, Spydertrader and everyone else, thanks for your efforts. This is one of the, if not the best, thread on this board. I have been studying your posts for quite a while and am trying to implement the system and I have a question. It is my understanding from reading everything that the purpose of the 11:30 or so "deadline" is to find stocks that appear to have volume that are on their way to hitting FRV, or 3 x the dryup volume. In theory you only want to buy stocks that are going to hit the FRV (I think). Using FORD tonight as an example, Average DU is 385K so the FRV is 1.157K (or 3 x the 385). I think the theory is that if FORD looks like it is on its way to hitting the FRV you buy it. What I don't understand is the LOWER BAND is only 193K, which is something like 1/2 of the Average DU. Therefore, if you are looking for the Lower Band to be exceeded at 11:30 and for argument sake the volume at 11:30 is 200K tomorrow (above the Lower Band) the odds of the FRV being hit are pretty low because 200K x 3 is only about 1/2 of the FRV. Therefore, since my understanding is that the main purpose is to find those stocks which will exceed the FRV (and have other characteristics) it seems that using a lower band which is much lower then the average DU will get you into stocks you'll need to bail out of before the end of the day. Your results have been great so I assume I'm missing something here. Can you correct my thinking? Thanks. And great work!
Over the last several posts, it appears as though some confusion still exists with respect to list creation. As a result, I thought I would post how I arrived at my lists for Wednesday (2005-11-08). I began by heading to the Stocktables.com web site and creating an initial sort as described in the methods portion of the previous Journal. I used 90 RSI and 80 EPS for my initial sort parameters. The resulting initial sort contained 129 stocks. After culling for float, positive EPS and Average Daily Volume parameters, I scanned the list using the Wealth-Lab Developer version of Hershey Equities Rank SCAN v. 1.0.0. The scan resulted in the following stocks which meet the minimum five cycles over six months: Hotlist BOOM BTUI CKCM CMCO FORD GES GMXR KNDL NGPS PETS RNOW TIE VIVO VPHM Since BTUI, PETS and RNOW from the Hotlist did not already have a place in the Final Universe List, I added the three equities to the Final Universe List. I then ran the entire Final Universe through the Wealth-Lab Developer version of Hershey Equities Dry Up Volume Scan v. 1.0.0 in order to locate equities which currently find themselves "In Dry Up." The scan returned the following equities: Dry Up Stocks FORD NGPS TRGL I plan to monitor the above stocks throughout the day tomorrow. Running each Final Universe stock manually through Hershey Equities Rank v. 3.0.0 provides the volume numbers needed to trade the system, as well as, scores for each equity. You can also use the Hershey Equities Score Scan v. 3.0.0 in order to focus on stocks with a score of zero or one. I hope the above clears up some of the confusion indicated in the previous posts. - Spydertrader
Nice Trade gooch87. Seeing how far you have come with your trading in such a short period of time, you remain an example of hard work paying off. Again, congrats on the trade. Once actual volume exceeds Peak Volume Levels, you can do one of several things. A. Sell immediately when volume exceeds Peak Volume. B. Sell within the first 30 minutes of trading the day after actual volume exceeds Peak Volume. C. Hold until your profit reaches a 10% gain. The choice remains solely yours to make. Keep up the great work. - Spydertrader
You correctly observe how entering into trades early in the day often increases the opportunity for FBO. However, we also have an increase in trade opportunities as an increase in the number of trade signals each day. As a result, I feel these methods strike a compromise between risk and reward. The following posts may shed some light on why I use Low Band Dry Up Volume as a trigger for entry (and dry up bands in general). These posts touch on a portion of the discussion regarding moving to a range of dry up values vs an absolute value for Dry Up Volume. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...5585&highlight=Dry+Up+Volume+Range#post785585 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...4993&highlight=Dry+Up+Volume+Range#post814993 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...1093&highlight=Dry+Up+Volume+Range#post751093 If the above posts do not clarify the matter for you, please let me know. - Spydertrader