I'm continued to be amazed at how well this method works and even more amazed that despite the ridicule Jack was subjected to in other threads, he continued to teach it. Just look at the MPWRE trade started yesterday: Up 9% (as I'm writing this) since entry; no wonder Jack got phone calls from the SEC. I'm waiting for about 50 trades before I step up the amount I trade. Since I trade 3 "systems", my first step is how much to allocate to each. Currently, I use about 10% of my trading acct for Jack's/Spyder's method and split the balance between the others. . I then split the Jack/Spyder amount into 4 streams and use one steam per stock. This makes my risk very low, much too low as you suggest. I think it is around 0.20% of my account per trade. There is no doubt the amount allocated to Jack's/Spyder's method will increase a lot after I reach 50 trades. Good trading, Doug
Current Final Universe BNT BOOM BTUI CTHR CUTR DCAI DXPE ENER ENG ETS FORD GMXR GROW HANS IIJI IVAC JMDT LIFC LMS MTEX NFLX NGAS NURO NWRE PWEI RATE REDF SIRF SWN TIE TRGL VIVO VPHM - Spydertrader
SpyderTrader- What keeps NTRI and UEPS from being included in the Final Universe List? They both show up on the Stocktables Screen and have positive EPS and qualifiying float values per Reuters and Yahoo. What am I missing? GlenKK
Nothing wrong with having both of these equities in your Final Universe. I have delayed adding NTRI and UEPS until both have additional days of data. I have both waiting on the bench for now. - Spydertrader
SpyderTrader- With reference to my previous message......... Is there something specific about a stock's characteristics that tells you to wait a while before adding it to your Final Universe? I'm hoping there a level-2 observation here from which a striving J-H student can benefit? In my screening work tonight, a new symbol, CKCM, occurred. It has positive earnings on Yahoo and seems to satisfy all requirements. Is it a legitimate candidate? BOOM and MTEX were the only stocks I found tonight in DryUp. Thank you again for all your earnest endeavors to help us neophytes! GlenKK
I like to have 6 months of market data for an equity before adding it to my Final Universe. Jack Hershey recommends two years. Although both Wealth-Lab.com and Yahoo have merged the previous data (different symbols or different exchange) for both Nutrisystems, Inc. and Net 1 UEPS Technologies, Qcharts has not merged the previous data. As a safety measure, I prefer to wait until six months of data has accumulated under the current symbol (or exchange) before adding an equity, rather than use the merged data. Looking at a daily chart for NTRI, it appears as though NTRI should pass my six month data requirement shortly. UEPS, however, has another month or so to go. - Spydertrader
CKCM once had a place in the Final Universe, but failed to maintain rank, and found itself removed. I too returned CKCM yesterday. - Spydertrader
i'm just starting to get into the stock stuff and i need to do more homework but i bought MPWRE today @ 17.50, we're on track to Exceed DU by 11:00am (seen at 9:40)...yesterday's vol. was 60k i have FRV around 180k, so i'll dump it if it doesn't get around that number by EOD.
Spydertrader: A few questions about rank. Per my scans (may be off a little) there were a total of 282 stocks that met the 80/80 EPS/RS and were in the 10 to 50 $$ price range from Stocktables tonight; of which 66 scored 7 or better. Of the 282 I have 113 meeting the float and 65 day volume average, of which 26 of them tonight have a score of 7. Of the 113 I have 18 that have gone up 5 times in the last 6 months, of which 2 are currently ranked 7 (CKCM and NWRE). (This does not take into accont any potential grandfathering). This brings up a few questions: First, based on what Jack has wrote or you have experienced is a stock having gone up 5 times before (part of the dry up approach) a requirement in this system. For instance AIR meets all the other requirements (EPS, RS, Volume, Float, Price) and has a rank of 7 tonight but has never gone up the 20% in a short period of time. Second (which would probably answer my first question) when you enter one of these trades are you typically looking/hoping for a 10% return and are you typically using the same stops and exit parameters (obviously not FRV). Finally, my scanner (Amibroker) doesn't have BOP built in but it looks like the forumula is (C-0)/(H-L). Is that your understanding (if you know...)? If these are documented elsewhere in Journal 1 or 2 I'd be happy to do my own homework. I've seen the graphical picture of the cycle but never the definitions including the 1%, 10% and 30% rules. Thanks Mike
If I recall correctly, I used a SMA of the BoP. The formula for BoP can be obtained here, but it appears as though you have the formula correct. I used the 80/80 EPS/RS parameters as well this evening. However, I do not 'score' the stocks until after running the list through all the various culling parameters. After performing the various culls (float, RS, EPS, Avg Volume, price) I ended up with 87 equities. Of these, I had 12 ranked (I have NTRI currently waiting on the bench): BNT BOOM BTUI CKCM ENG GMXR GROW IIJI LIFC LMS NWRE VIVO Since each of the above equities already had a place in the Final Universe, I had no reason to make any additions. I then check the Final Universe for Dry up Stocks. A scan of the Final universe yielded the following stocks in Dry Up: BOOM CUTR DCAI ETS FORD NGAS VPHM When I enter into a trade, I anticipate achieving a 10% gain or more. However, this is not always possible based on where the stock finds itself with respect to its natural cycle and / or its location within the long term channel. I do not trade stocks without rank. Any stock which fails to maintain rank finds itself removed from the Final Universe at month's end. The above 'super-abbreviated' version of the methods I use describes a system for entering into a trade which should have a high degree of success. We use the stocks which cycle a minimum of five times in six months (only stocks which have a rank) in order to better anticipate the proper time for trade entry and exit. Think of this as The Beginner's Method - a way for someone new to these methods to bank a few profits before moving onto more advanced trading. Jack described (in this Journal) how he sees a trader making the transition from beginner to intermediate to expert with respect to trading a stock's natural cycle. For a more detailed explanation of how to follow the process, see the 'Methods' Post at the end of Journal One. As always, I highly recommend reviewing the original Journal (at least once) in its entirety in order to internalize the process and maximize your understanding of the "The Big picture." In addition, a review of the attached document, 'The Big Post: I - X' provides an excellent overview of Jack describing the overall methodology. One can locate 'The Big Post: I - X' within Journal One (and possible on the MSN Web Site). I hope that helps. - Spydertrader