SPY vs SPY

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Rams Fan, Dec 5, 2022.

  1. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    This bear market has been one bear flag with trendline breaks after another. Today price has "broken" the most recent trendline from the October 13 low.

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    #11     Dec 6, 2022
  2. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

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    #12     Dec 6, 2022
  3. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    DIA. The Dow has been the leader of this rally. Back below that upper channel trendline and the breakout was simply the leader getting overbought. Looks like a series of stop runs. The next stop run would be the stops down below the 10/13 low.

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    #13     Dec 6, 2022
  4. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    This is the SPY chart I've been working with since October. I posted it to another thread on October 30 with these two scenarios.
    scenarios.jpg

    I am tentatively, though with a high degree of confidence, removing the scenario that allowed for the October low to be the low of the bear market. Only a break above last week's high would bring that scenario back to life. For now, this is the forecast. If the economy isn't too bad and the USA remains in pretty good shape, we'll see a bottom in the $339 to $320 levels. If, on the other hand, the economy is a bad shape and the USA suffers a deep turn down in the business cycle, then I would expect a low to occur on a brief undercut of the March 2020 lows.

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    #14     Dec 9, 2022
  5. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

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    #15     Dec 16, 2022
  6. LOL, awesome thread is awesome.
     
    #16     Dec 16, 2022
    Rams Fan likes this.
  7. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    Santa rally

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    #17     Dec 16, 2022

  8. LOL!
     
    #18     Dec 16, 2022
  9. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

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    Coming Friday, December 23, 2022: Core PCE Price Index m/m
     
    #19     Dec 16, 2022
  10. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    MCD is a short.

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    #20     Dec 16, 2022