For my top secret calculations I am using VIX. from WIKI: The VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the next 30-day period, which is then annualized. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX Right now SPY 117.33, VIX 39. So the expectations are that SPY will move up to +/-39% within a year with 68% likelihood. There is 32% likelihood that SPY will exceed this range. :eek: Rounded up targets are ~70 and ~165.