LOL Put your sept spy straddle on at 107 right now with that 3 % premium on each side and see what happens. 104 - 110 100 - 115 expanded Being september I doubt we would reach the higher end on the expanded range. I'm not an option guru like you but I have an edge that works for me even if it is to simpilistic for a great mind like yours.
101.47 to 112.87 That's my prediction (but it's not really mine). So you're saying we'll stay in a 15% range? Wow, that's going out on a limb!
It is really to early for sept OE for them to give any indication. 2 to 3 weeks from expiration is most accurate for me. 104 to 110 Being september we could move below 104 to suck in put premium but i dont see us hitting the expanded high side. So you think 5% +- from 107. BTW here is what those worthless aug spy options told me this morning
I think what you're saying is the effect is small. What I'm trying to say, but failed to elaborate is, the effect to the extent that it exists is due to gamma trading and not a conspiracy of market makers, which is what some believe.
I find an old post I wrote on the mechanics of local-pinning, but couldn't believe what an a**hole I was in the reply. Anyway, you're correct.