Discussion in 'Options' started by KINGOFSHORTS, Aug 20, 2010.
Look at the Pinning effects for todays expiring contracts.
Notice the OI on the 107 puts.
You can sell them 107 puts and take advantage of rapid time decay and pin. Collect a 30-34 cent premium
Strong Demand for closing transactions, SPY will close to pin 107 over a few pennies.
Pinning is coincidence. Reuters just a story written about a strategist who said that we'd pin SPY at 110 due to OI. If it's an edge, please let us know a week in advance so we can exploit it.
Check the ES journal. I posted way in advance that it was highly probable s&P would top at 1130 with max of 1140. This was all done by aug spy option interest long before today.
I do agree though, it is not about spike pinning on Index options but about collecting premium and burning the most holders on rtm.
I do agree that 107 put buyers will at best break even today.
Think of looking at OI as volume in profile (market profile). The atm strikes will be the high volume as we approach expiration. It's a convergence on price and volume. It's often self fulfilling, but of no predictive value. We'll have to agree to disagree.
Pinning is the effect of gamma trading.
No, it really isn't. It was, like 20 years ago. The volume in the options is so small relative to the volume in the underlying.
I don't follow market profile.
How can you say no predictive powers when I posted the range spy options gave me on August 2 and 3 were 1069 to 1130-1140 and since then we traded 1129 to 1063?
I will say that my reads on spy are only correct about 80% of the time.
You may call this just coincidence or luck but I have profited very well from using spy options to gauge market ranges.
Another thing I find interesting is when it does close with a high strike ITM, it often reverts back to it the following monday. My hunch is this has to to with assignment.
I am not going to get into it with you again. I could've done the same by using the atm straddle on August 3rd, but I am under no delusion that it's predictive of anything.
We're 30 days out... provide the high and low now, or plz stfu.
Depends on the stock, some still get pinned. On spy it is less likely. You also have to figue the premium in as well. The majority of aug 107 put sellers probably were opened with a time premium of 1 or above. They don't lose unless we close 106 or below.
As of right now the 107 sept spy put is fetching nearly 3 for time alone. It's still early but this tells me that a rough range of 104 to 110 is very probably til next expiration.
This does not mean will wont trade under 104 but it makes it more probable we come back to it if we did trade lower.
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