SPY May Not Find Buyer Next Week

Aren't you glad you didn't go long at the start of the day?

 

Not.

The futures were propped and popped. 8:30am was showtime and the move was a perfect sell-off to the 200d ma. Come' on guys. A move thru the 200d then pop, lock, and twirl back to the 200d. If you were short you got the chance to make it right. If you were long you had the chance to make it right. Now we wait.

Tic, toc, tic, toc......

 

Is June 23, Fed day? If yes, my thinking is: possible gap up at open, and a possible retreat after fed announcement if it stays up there but does not go too far before fed announcement.

What do you think the market would do?

 

I was thinking of a morning sell off before the rally. The poor housing numbers gave a serious boost to the sell off. I agree we rally before the FOMC announcement, but a sell off is likely before the close.

Regarding the housing numbers, 300K is the actual, 400K is what was expected.

 

after 3 red bars in a row it must be a small edge going long.

Shortie Niederhoffer Out

 

I am surprised by the extent of the move. I did not know we had any housing news on a Fed day. In a down move, is not true that any news would cause/justify a selloff independent of the numbers?

Shortie Niederhoffer Out:

Where did you get this three bar business? Is he not just a put seller?

 

i may have seen it somewhere, not sure. it does makes sense for an RTM trader. Niederhoffer is an RTM trader.

 

The BOTs are in complete control today.

 

Funny how just last week everyone said the market was breaking out and that 1150, 1200, 1250 and even 1300 was coming since it was able to close above its 200 day SMA and here we are just days later and the market selling off pretty hard over the last few days.

It would be simply hilarious to see the SPX break 1040 after nearly every bull has said the bottom was in since touching down on that support a couple of times so far these last couple of months. IF the SPX breaks 1040 its simply going down to break 1000 and eventually 950.

Lets see if the market brings any buyers into the close ahead of RIMM earnings and GDP figures tomorrow morning.

 

I've never backtested, but it does seem to me that the market prefers a nice tank to close out a week versus other days. Doesn't mean that we will tank tomorrow, or not dive today of course. But you gotta play the odds.