I called for a pullback test back on April 18th. I never thought it would have went this way and taken so long, but here is our test finally. :eek: Macd and macd histogram divergence on last weeks close, which is lower than the prior closes. 200ma is double support backing this trendline as well. Could get interesting on any hint of a rally. JMHO FOMC could make things even more interesting tomorrow. :eek:
The bigger picture, why can it be important to not solely focus on micro levels and step back sometimes? In addition to my micro level chart we can now see a more defined channel. Plus much more is visible that is acting as support now. So, we have the downtrend broken and testing (from prior chart), 200ma and a now an added swing high as support. How about a trendline from all the way back to October 2004? CHECK! This is a crucial but fairly low risk level to get long IMO. If it fails to hold though look out, we could hit 11k fairly quickly if this stuff gives way. As always JMHO.
HRMMMM Could it be???? A longer period intraday chart with a test sans the 1 minute noise and micromanagement we all thrive on??? Yep...now back to my 5 minute noisy chart. LOL I'm on my hands since this action is so wild...good luck fellas, this may secure the bounce everybody has been waiting for. NOT bullish till the downtrend is proven wrong though.
Still plenty of resistance ahead on the markets overall. DJI has no divergence on a weekly going into this move so perhaps the Nasdaq is leading off it's divergence. Either way Nas has been the stronger market all the way in this bear really. In case some didn't catch the tip on the charts...there is a nice ticker to help you spot divergence on highs and lows. MC
The most recent down move has built bullish divergence where price tested lows yet the MACD as well as the MACD histogram failed to even come close to their prior lows. This was a VERY bullish indicator. I would have preferred the volume had been lower on the 2nd test giving a 2nd and more important diverging indication though. That would have told me there were less sellers at a prior key level and we didn't get that so I'm not a total believer of this rally yet. I will become more bullish if/when the same level (or lower) has very low volume aka: brings out very few sellers. I will become full bull when the red downtrend and structure resistance are cleared and legitimately defeated. Thoughts?
Pretty bullish on the 60 minute chart. Gapped right back into that rising channel and above the prior high. Passed a lil pullback test even. Bigger picture though...we will be encountering HUGE supply in this zone. It's a damn big zone so be sure you know how to play the game if your looking to go in longer term. From R1 to R2 resistance you're looking at almost 1500 points. R1 isn't something you want to short at and just average down on all the way up. If R1 breaks RUN and look to short at R2. This could be one of the times where averaging down leads to margin calls and wipes traders out. This also would potentially propel the market upwards towards R2. We do have a minor trendline and the shorter MA's acting as support below. I would not anticipate R2 testing without some kind of consolidation building or an insane squeeze. This rally has been a bit too vertical for my liking. It's pretty emotional based on the slope. Think about it, if there were a deep correction would it hold? NOT LIKELY. It's vertical with uber tight pullbacks for a reason, and it's not because the market is all the sudden bullish with all that resistance looming overhead. HRMMM.