Does anyone have any experience they could share with a certain time of the day when they feel as if they can accurately pick a minimum 20 cent move in the SPY with a relatively high degree of probability? Thanks, Jennie
1) Jennie, are you pretty? 2) Focus on the first hour, the middle hour and the final hour of trading. Merry Christmas!
You can't dictate to the market how far it will run in any direction. If you backtest some trading ideas you will see what I mean. You could look into opening range breakout theory. The market gaps up or down if you use regular sessions. The question is whether the gap will fill or the market will move in one direction/trend. Gap fills are high probability, I would say your best shot is the morning session.
Last half hour of the day has been the best lately, although you should realize you're asking a loaded question.
At any point in time during the day there is a high probability the SPY will move 20 cents. As a matter of fact, the probability is 1 except in a set of almost measure 0. The problem is the direction of a 20 cent move. I suppose by "pick" you mean determining the direction in addition. This is a tough one. At any given point in time, some traders try to pick a 20 cent move in one direction and naturally their other side is picking a move in the other direction. It is a constant fight and the winners are those who keep fighting their opponent with all means. The opponent buys from them for example but then buys some more, and more. The other traders start selling even more. There comes another one and joins the action by buying a lot more. The sellers sell many more. Ten more guys come in and start buying like crazy. Thirty sellers pop in and start selling like there is no tomorrow. You get the picture...
it has nothing to do with "SPY" as the emini ES and other S&P instruments This has been studied to death - you cannot just get a predictable edge on something like a simple time of day. It would have been "arb"ed long ago.
I can tell you that there are certain times of day when market moves and it is usually around econ report times. Problem with trading these moves is that you need to be either a large trader or a scalper. Everything between gets killed sooner or later. Take a look at charts and you will see how irrational some of the moves are. It is all about stops running these days within the framework of fake news and manipulated government numbers
Jennie, i probably trade spy 15-20 times a day scalping. sometimes I can forecast big moves half the time, and the other half when big moves happen I just add to my position. But I only show my employees how to scalp so I can't really answer your Q, but just keep searching, there is a way. If a trader is generous enough to show you is million dollar secret for free then consider yourself lucky!
Thanks for sharing your idea here. I appreciate your idea, very excellent. simulation credit immobilier