SPY going to $260?

There is a third way: Buy a put and if you are correct, when SPY put is DITM at $260, your put will be worth $$$$$, use that to buy SPY so you own SPY for free.

 

True but that requires me to time the market. That I haven't really done very well except by accident a few times.

 

And full disclosure: the custom indicator has reversed which makes more sense. Except it has never happened before so I am guessing its "predictive" nature is gone and I'm on my own again.

Edit: FUCK. I didn't refresh the page. Sorry for the noise.

 

Here's the indicator btw. You can see it leads SPY by a bit.

 

SPY over a similar period. You can see that the indicator peaked before SPY which caused me to go short in the short term last(?) Friday.

TBH, I don't trust it but right now my gut is still telling me $260-270 in the near term at which point I'm going all in on all the indexes.

 

forget it bro - such 'indicator' will never work lol... in order to estimate how deep a retrace will be, you simply need to look at the dumb money positions, and what narratives are being pushed.

based on my estimation, following the retail positions for the past few years.... for the foreseeable future we can expect 5% corrections from time to time.

retail is still quite short... tons of sideline cash, there will be very slim chance any retrace can reach 10%.

on the other hand the 'shortness' is not as extreme as it was in 2017, so we'll not get a silky smooth ride either.

for the long term who cares about 5%... Warren says stocks are ridiculously cheap... and Fed is already committed to being dovish, so I'd say just load it up.

 

I think you are right that there is very little fuel to fuel a crash. This is a sensible perspective. And this is part of why I don't trust my indicator enough to make a huge bet. I'm just nominally short.

 

Thought I'd try to see if there a ig sentiment scraper out there... Know of any? I want to add it to my Spartan data.

 

According to IG, it's only skewed short by 10%. Not a huge amount. By comparison. USDCAD is a 70% short(!)

 

yeah the data itself wont' tell much directly.... you'd need to observe it for a while to have a historical perspective.