Yes, it's amazing how fearful we are of the possibility of recession. Used to be, recessions were taken as a "normal cyclical part of the economy"... (actually they weren't really economically cyclical but rather monetarily cyclical... Fed stepping on the brake to cause them). But now recession is almost politically unthinkable... as there's always an election "around the corner"... and the incumbent party fears losing seats if their is any stress in the economy... healthy or not.
I dont know where people are coming off saying that the stores are full and they can't see any signs that there is a recession... When I go out, the crowds are not as large as they were a year or so ago. In the daytime, stores like Home Depot seem empty. There are certainly lots of smaller stores and car dealerships that have shut their doors. Im seeing a lot of belt tightening everywhere of whatever is left. For example, this Halloween did you see many decorations arounds? What about Thanksgiving? What about gifts and other niceities? Well, those cost money and everyone is squeezing where ever they can. I dont see anyone rampaging out to spend.
Are you an "Economist" or a "Trader"? Seems like you consistently make the mistake of not understanding that the MARKET does not have a direct correlation with the ECONOMY. That is often a fatal mistake that many "newbies" make when learning how the stock market works.
If you want to look at this from a trading perspective then look at the chart, last 20 days...the index has to overcome a lot and I believe this is just another swell up in the course of a greater bear. Its hard to believe the entire market has come down some 20% in 20 trading days. That might seem like great value, but wait until the index is at 620-640. I think then the long term traders can start stepping in at those levels...although...
Do you even have a clue as to how many times the equity market has rallied and shown large percentage gains for the year even though the S&P 500 registered negative earnings growth? ie.) In 1975 the S&P had -17% earnings growth and yet the market rallied +31%. You obviously have no idea regarding how the market works vis-a-vis the Economy.
You are looking towards to spending habits of Americans for a sign of stability? Are you high?? Buddy, you are trying to force an argument for a bottom here. Don't push it.
I don't see any point on stressing the, so called recesion. From a trader viewpoint this bear market is as wonderful as any bull market if not better. Trading is not a deal for people who get scared when the markets move, just move with the flow and let it be.
Lets say there was a bull market right here, right now. Why buy RIMM, V, AAPL and GOOG? Obviously those bubbles have popped. After each bear there is usually another set of stocks that run while the ole faves get left behind. Plus Apples run during the last few years relied on the I-pod and I-phone. If you cruise the carriers websites, you can see where there is a lot more competition then before. RIMM and AAPL are both battling it out with the Blackberry Storm and I-Phone. GOOG is simply dead money. Of course there will be short covering rallies like today for GOOG, but in the end we will find that it gets killed back to where it traded in 2004.
As for the next bull market you are right GOOG, RIMM, AAPL and the rest of those high flying tech stocks will not lead the nasdaq out of this bear market, I highly doubt they will even contribute much to the next bull market in the nasdaq which is years away, most tech is going to trade sideways for sometime, anyone slapping triple digit price targets on the likes of GOOG, RIMM, AMZN etc is just plain stupid. As I said earlier GOOG is pretty much an old school nasdaq stock, yea it might bounce here and there but I believe those days of a $600+ stock price are long gone, my next prediction for GOOG is $200-$250 and pre IPO price sometime at the end of 2009 early 2010.