SPY 88 Won't Fall For Months: A Contrarian Hypothesis

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, May 23, 2009.

Will SPY 87-88 Level Be Breached Soon?

  1. Will Go Up For At Least A Month

    12 vote(s)
    20.0%
  2. Likely Will Fill May04 Gap And Stay Range-Bound

    12 vote(s)
    20.0%
  3. Going Down: Will Breach 87-88 Within A Month

    12 vote(s)
    20.0%
  4. Going Down: Will Breach 87-88 Within Two Weeks

    6 vote(s)
    10.0%
  5. Going Down Fast: Will Breach 87-88 Within One Week

    18 vote(s)
    30.0%
  1. NYC212

    NYC212

    I am long over the weekend...I need it pop open on monday. please open up :)
     
    #21     Jun 6, 2009
  2. boiling the frog...

    :)
     
    #22     Jun 12, 2009
  3. Boiling frog
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    A submerged frog

    The boiling frog story is a widespread anecdote describing a frog slowly being boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability of people to react to important changes that occur gradually. According to contemporary biologists the premise of the story is not literally true; an actual frog submerged and gradually heated will jump out.

    the frog is the Longs here i guess.

    :D
     
    #23     Jun 18, 2009
  4. SPY 89.77 midday Monday June 22nd. I am still not convinced the bears can penetrate...




    ...SPY 87 level any time soon.
     
    #24     Jun 22, 2009
  5. An important factor that makes the bear case stronger short term is VIX. Today we had a major down move in all indexes with the bottoms falling out toward EOD. But VIX, while it did move higher, did not really scream: "Panic" IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    #25     Jun 22, 2009
  6. the month has passed and the level has held.

    once in a while it pays to be a contrarian. :p
     
    #26     Jun 25, 2009
  7. You have been proven right again!

    Note that 88 is the high side of the right of the V bottom.
     
    #27     Jun 25, 2009
  8. piezoe

    piezoe

    Shortie, you are becoming a very good trader, and your posts are among the few that i pay much attention too, because they are level headed. I generally agree with you. Overall i expect Most of July to be rather boring on crappy volume. But crappy volume also means easily pushed hither and yon. Today we are up in the am to annoy the too eager shorts and make the weak hands cover, but i expect a close back down toward the pivot. Anyway good trading to you, and keep up the interesting posts.
     
    #28     Jun 25, 2009
  9. thank you, guys!

    i have decided to write a book "My System: Shortie Teaches Intuitive Trading"
     
    #29     Jun 25, 2009
  10. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    interesting that put call ratio is going up with the rally.
     
    #30     Jun 25, 2009