Discussion in 'ETFs' started by dealmaker, Jul 28, 2018.
Wait until it blows past the all time high. Market needs to shake out the "obvious shorts" before it pulls back.
First shake out is above all time high... then you will see a pull back.. but that pull back is just too obvious. You will then need to see one more test... then big drop 300+ points. Short on 2. That is exactly where I will be shorting the market.
Thanks for posting this. I agree with Raoul Pal, especially with FAANG stocks taking a breather / turn / correction.
The test of the all time high is just obvious, need to take that out to piss everyone off. Then everyone is going to short, drive this thing UP further, to piss off shorts.
All this is.. it's a game designed to piss everyone off.
That's basically how I trade... Market likes to go to the level that pisses the most off. It's a constant squeeze of all the different participants.
Just like Raoul said in his twitter post... it's the perfect risk reward short. It's massively obvious... so the market will squeeze those obvious "plays" because this money is not supposed to be easy to earn.
That might happen but usually there is a pull back on the first push to a previous all time high, as many technical traders take preemptive profits before others do. Breakouts usually occur at the 3rd or 4th push.
Another scenario. You think everyone is already short, but I don't see it that way. Suppose we are already pulling back now. Then you have all the guys who want to go short but didn't get their ideal entry since we haven't hit it yet. Then the market keeps dropping. Now the shorts are chasing and the bulls are obviously still hoping for that test of the February highs, so both sides can be screwed.
you never know...I am wrong often.
I think though... all time high NEEDS to be retested... step 1
then buy it now and hang on it's not like it's not every going to break that high ever again. lol
yeah, there is a very very famous futures trader who would absolutely be doing that right now. He is retired with 1 Billion +
Interesting picture of the S&P 500 by market-cap fwiw:
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