Personally, I'd never attempt a position trade with a bearish bias in Octobers. If September came out strong, I'm guessing this month will be quite a bit stronger than last month. Good luck Pabst, all this pain can be ended with the click of a Buy button
Here is a link to a thread from May where I was forecasting a drop to come shortly. Also, I explain a little about the analysis of same and the 87 charts. This thread was just prior to the large drop in May of this year. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1070488&highlight=meanest#post1070488
In the interest of full disclosure, Pabst also called for the down move in the same thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...9042&perpage=6&highlight=meanest&pagenumber=9
I shorted the big SP (500 per point) at 341.00 and covered at 249.00. The major difference that I see right now is that tops usually take a bit of time to fester. They generally give warning like they did in the flattening out in Auggie 87. No warning here yet.
Thanks b1s2. Wish I could incorporate your laissez-faire trading style into my trading. I am too new to this business. You trade from a position of strength. To do that a person needs to have both money and lots of experience. I wonder how long it took you to arrive to that stage. It seems that by 1987 you already knew your way around... Here is a monthly SPX with a clearer macdhistogram div for your review if you care to comment. =) <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1217827>
For what it's worth, I keep hearing amateurs talk about the easy money from pre-election rallys... I don't forsee outright capitulation myself, rather a more drawn-out correction when we do get it. On the other hand...if energy busts the entire thing busts. That's the most crowded investment out there.
though you were correct with you 87 short - you of all people should know, being that you were an active trader in 87, that the magnitude of your correctness was a fluke.(edit: i say it not because corrections are few and far between, but because of what caused this hemorage.) correct me if i am wrong - from the comments you do not see the current environment as a short play - with that I would agree. I have said it elsewhere on ET and I will say it here - bias on ET is a contrarian indicator: always has been. current bias is bearish. regards,
Good news Pabst. I just checked. Sierra Nevada is still available as a screen name. Worst case scenario.