SPX Has Topped For The Year Or Pabst Will Leave ET

Technical analysis is not the only way to view the situation.

Fundamental analysis, with a slowing national economy, and lower earnings' guidance in 3Q, may have something to say in this matter.

 

Very misguided, but you are entitled to your opinion and I won't argue with that right.

 

Thanks for your comments, they mean as much as Pabst's word does...

 

Why would fundamental analysis not be an appropriate way of measuring this market?

Are you saying fundamental analysis itself is flawed?

 

No, what I am saying is that fundamental analysis shows itself in the technical analysis. So, fundamental analysis is not needed. But, this is not really a discussion of fundamental vs technical. This is more a discussion of the merits of making an "all in" top call without any clear evidence of a top. Mind you, we could be at a top, but there is no clear evidence yet, and so this type of call is gambling although the only thing being bet is an ET login.

 

pabst - you've contributed some quality information to the board - even if i don't agree with you most of the time.

i am curious about what you are basing this prediciton on: i know there is no shortage of pessamisam out there, but the trend is up. every move down has been on light volume.

we are breaking 1400 before the end of the year.


regards,

 

I see.

What would have technical analysis alone told us about the markets in 1999, though?

 

Here is the weekly chart. Pretty easy to see. Technical analysis is all you need.

 

While it takes guts to step on the gas and make a big bet when you're sure about something, sooner or later you will be wrong and take a big hit. A very important part of trading well is to avoid big drawdowns.

Good luck to you anyways - October has been a bad month for stocks in the past.

 

b1s2, could you post a weekly chart for 1987?

thanks!