Martingaling is doubling down without stops and a 1 to 1 risk reward. The method I described is not even close to Martingale. This thread is more for a discussion of Pabst making an all in on his ET logon, not position sizing. To get back to the matter at hand, Pabst should use a stop loss on his ET login---Perhaps just leave ET for a week or two if he is wrong. That would make more sense. This is my last post in this thread. Thank you all for your time
that is more what i have gleamed from ET and other traders too. what is that saying about 'the move that happnes is the one that screws the most people?'
When/if the wager is lost, I hope Pabst doesn't try to welch as Rubberbird did. He unlike Rubberbird seems to be a poster of honor. After welching Birdy tried to hang around, but couldn't handle the heat of the persistant lynch mob. After a public meltdown that put Tyson eating off Holyfields ear to shame the mods ended up taking care of business. This would be sad to see Pabst go through, perhaps a PM visit by a group of senior ET members advising that it's time to go would be best. Much the way Nixon recieved such a visit from senior Senators when he needed to go. Rennick Woodward out
Markets can and will do anything at any time. All we can do is manage risk and put on odds-on positions. While I also believe that the market is trading at a hefty premium in the form of ES at 1350, I also believe that the flows we are seeing recently on this runup is $$ that is rotating out of real estate and commodities. It was/is sidelined money that was waiting on the FED to pause. No one knows how much of that money is going to find it's way into the stock market. IMO, they are going from the fire into the frying pan, and a rising stock market doesn't mean anything other than that, it is getting flows. It is the cheerleading by the media that it means anything other than flows, is what is funny. When the logic of the situation dictates caution, and yet the market throws caution to the wind and goes higher anyway, it rarely means smart money. It is simply $$ that needs to be put in play at "reasonable" levels. To say that you have had it if the market goes up another 10-15 handles on a swing trade is random trading to me. It could easily go that and much higher on the 2 Trillion of money on the sidelines, and that money being put into play would signal nothing more than that money being put into play, not that the market valuations logically demand a higher market. People learned a ton from the last tech bubble when they got torched when the bottom fell out from underneath them. This time they are putting their money into large caps because their money is "safe" that way. If we see a harder recession than expected, they are in for a big surprise... I am not sure I am clear in what I am saying. Basically, imo this market is going higher not on underlying logic, but on inflows of money that has to be put to work under just about any circumstances. Knowing when that fiddle stops playing is impossible. nitro
No attempt at the 1350's what so ever............here we go, taking a shot with a good divergence signal.......... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/02/ES_317_VB_2.png We need initiated selling through the 1336's.... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/02/MP.png ...and then through the 1324's going forward.... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/02/MP_2.png This will put the 1320.00 level in the bears sights to sell this market off.
The ball's rolling. As I mentioned my reason for seeing a top was partly because of the midcaps. Well they're getting CRUSHED!