Without giving away what I'm looking at (some of you know a little) I believe that SPX did Friday what most indices did months ago. Topped. As in over. Perhaps over for a few years. This call is not based on hunch or feel and certainly not based on fundamentals although IMO a wild card event will accelerate the break. Rather it's a call I'm making off of a complex analysis of measured moves that provide the backbone of my trading. I will give myself wiggle room to 1347.86 IF SPX trades above 1348 anytime this year I will leave Elite Trader forever. I will also suffer a pretty good hit financially if SPX continues to rally. In memory of those American's who perished 5 years ago: Let's roll!
well, u should buy if is an omage to 9/11..to show strength and solidarity, shortin' no good imo. mixed message.
[Pekelo busily printing this post and filing it] But I agree with you, show is over, in 2 weeks in October we will give all the Sept gains back....
Pabst, I happen to agree with you. However, if you're wrong, I'd hate to see you leave ET. Are you serious about that? I read somewhere that if you are soooo sure about something and don't think anything other than that is a possibility, then be very careful (you may not want to bet on it). This has happened to me a couple times. I'm waiting for drop next week or the following. We'll see. I don't see how we can keep going up from here. Frank
First off -- I would like to disclose that I also am a massive bear with a giant sized erection in regards to a possible down turn. But I've learned its best to thread lightly. These turning points can be a little tricky.
Guy's, I'm FULLY cognizant that ANY further strength could induce a mother of a short covering pop. Ozzy knows what a pivotal area this really is. Nothing random about these prices. I'll be out of my shorts if we trade 10pts higher.
Pabst Registered: Dec 2001 Posts: 5369 07-21-06 12:04 PM If you're long and under water you're living in denial. It's not so much conditions being bearish. It's more a case of longs just not seeing any upside potential in this climate. The only buyers I see are those who are averaging bad positions from higher levels and some shorts who are taking a few in. IMO SPX will be under 1200 by this time next week. <img src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s"/> "Wrong-Way" Pabst? Just messin' with ya P, and I agree - Don't leave ET if you are wrong. To heck with these bold predictions and position trades - just trade 'em every day! Good trading to all.
Dont leave dont leave. We need u here. U will eventually be right even if we rally some more from here. I would think it is stupid if u leave because the spooze rally 10 pts more and goes into a free fall after the last leg of short squeeze.