SPX/ES Market Outlook

Discussion in 'Trading' started by EliteThink, Jan 4, 2012.

  1. thanks for the pic. agreed trans appear to be rolling over. AAPL and Ralph L. may be the main stocks holding the market up lol. I looked at the TVIX vol, interesting observation. Looks like a new instrument, but i cant see volume increase on the way down on the last volatility contraction scenario. It was after the TVIX bottomed.
     
    #71     Feb 8, 2012
  2. Look at the transports are getting waxed today. That charted I posted a couple days ago really accelerating the primary trendline.
     
    #72     Feb 10, 2012
  3. Agreed. Trans was the leading instrument, of course $100 oil doesn't help its cause.

    ES/SPX hasn't had a down day where it closed at the low this year. It will be surprising, yet welcomed, to see it today. AAPL may have reached a psychological level at 500, and tech is giving us a courtesy pullback. The metals are declining off of resistance. Today's low is still above the 2/3/12 RTH low for the spy, which was a gap up day. Until that breaks, filling the gap is not even in the cards. Best guess for opex friday is 1350. Finally, I would be suprised if the people of Greece approved the impositions by the German government and the rest of the union. The effects, if this occurs, of this, will have to be seen at the ES open on Sunday.
     
    #73     Feb 10, 2012
  4. Monday’s move was eluded to in the last few minutes of the ES session on Friday with a quick spike up. Greece apparently has been able to convince buyers the situation is better, resulting in today’s gap up. Half the gap was quickly filled, and thus far, the highs of the session have been targeted since. Thursday’s high appears to be holding so far. The levels of significant resistance are well known. But with AAPL going parabolic, and still being called undervalued, the move higher can continue. Still, with commodities up, which translates to fixed costs going up, one would think the market would not be so enthused. The VIX was up considerably Friday, some of that is being given up toa, but not as much as one might think. Looking for a cash close this week of about 1342.

    Good Trading.


    The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
    1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
    1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
    1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
    1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
    1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
    1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
    1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
    1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
    1370.58, high of 5/2/11
    1359.44, high of 5/10/11
    1356.48, high of 7/7/11
    1354.32, high of 2/9/2012

    The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
    1349.31, Gann 87.5% projection 10/11 range
    1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
    1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
    1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
    1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
    1257.62, 200-day SMA
    1257.46, low of 12/30/11
    1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
    1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
    1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
    1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
    1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
    1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
    1234.81, low of 11/3/11
    1231.04, high of 12/16/11
    1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
    1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
    1224.57, high of 12/19/11
    1215.20, low of 12/16/11
    1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
    1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
    1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
    1202.37, low of 12/19/11
    1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
    1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
    1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
    1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
    1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
    1039.70, low of 8/27/10
    1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
    1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
    1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
    1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
    991.97, low of 9/2/2009
    978.51, low of 8/17/2009
    956.23, high of 6/11/2009
    943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
    935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
    878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
    874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
    869.32, low of 7/8/2009
    817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
    805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
    785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
    666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

    S&R source: Robert Colby
     
    #74     Feb 13, 2012
  5. S2007S

    S2007S

    $100 plus oil is great, gas near me is already $4.00 a gallon and climbing...nope no inflation, thats what BUBBLE ben bernanke keeps saying so I guess he is right, right??? hah
     
    #75     Feb 13, 2012
  6. nailed it, the damage to personal wealth with these rates is striking.
     
    #76     Feb 13, 2012
  7. lol, see you there.
     
    #77     Feb 13, 2012
  8. With down days appearing to be outlawed, the market erased losses in a mere 30 minutes yesterday. Overnight, the rally continued with the ES hitting a new high for the year. The ticker is very responsive to news to the upside, yet shirks off negative news events. In this brief morning, spx has hit a new yearly high, likely soon to be eclipsed. DJ30 and Trans are negative which should be of note. Tech, however continues to march on into opex, as well as commodities. How higher prices for the consumer translates into a higher market is for the market to deduce. ES is well off the overnight high, if that high is taken out, it is likely straight to spx 1370.
     
    #78     Feb 15, 2012
  9. Yet another ES/SPX 2012 high for the markets going into opex day, as well as approaching 52 week highs. SPX is nearly 300 points off the Oct low, and 200 points from the December low. DJ30 continues to move towards 13,000, and will most likely test it, and then some, allowing the spx to test the 1370 high of 2011. DJTrans has made an impressive 2 day move, and may no longer appear to be rolling over at this point, it remains to be seen. Metals have appeared to have stabilized for now, yet crude continues to move higher. Tech, so far, is not leading as much as recently, AAPL is taking a small breather, but MSFT looks like it may be finally waking up. We could be witnessing the awaking of a sleeping giant, if MSFT continues its move, this after a decade of sideways movement. Markets are in the midst of major high points, and therefore, resistance, and could roll over any time. Support zones are now 1280-1300, with several minor support zones in between. However, the safe bet is to stay with the trend and with the channel.
     
    #79     Feb 17, 2012
  10. Channel remains in tact.
     
    #80     Feb 17, 2012