SPX Credit Spread Trader

Buying the butterfly would just be rolling the position from a short 1295 to 1310 for a cost (mid) of 2.75...which is too high for me. I would at this point rather take my chances and roll to Sept.... IF I have to. However I plan to give the market a chance to go down. I actually have a life its just boring (right now)

edit. I actually do have a 1260/1270/1280 B-fly that I legged into for a net debt of .20...so if we close anywhere around 1270

 

I have so many freaking targets on the SPX the MM's don't know WHICH one to nail

 

You know Bob...the best reason NOT to roll your position just yet is you will be giving away your whole edge...theta...say you roll to Sept and Aug 8 Fed disappoints..market goes down pretty big. You think OK I'll close my Sept spread...whoops so much time premium I have to buy back PLUS the IV has spiked so the calls are MORE expensive. Just not a good trade.

If you hold another week to see which way the wind blows more time has been eaten up and perhaps with the uncertainty of the Fed the IV goes up and you can roll out to higher strikes for more than you could this week. We're still over 20 pts away from your short. food for thought...now I'm really gone...

 

I also have an August 1300/1310 bear call. My trading rules this early call for getting out at 10 points at 1290...after this I'd reassess what new positions I'd do if any.

Currently showing the following resistances on SPX (http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=$SPX):

resist. 1293.67 8
resist. 1286.41 8
resist. 1280.19 2

Also watching my August 1155/1165 bullish puts to see if I can close these out for a nice profit...got into them for $0.90.

Good luck next week!

 

The diagonal doesn't show a profit until the THETA goes away or the volatility spikes. Neither of those situations have occured. But just for an instance, imagine the Aug 1315c expiring worthless... what is currently left in the Sept 1330, I show $4.95

My upper call diagonal cost .30 to enter. Even if the $4.95 fell to $4.00 by expiration, that's still a $3.70 return on $15, which isn't bad.

Remember, this is primarily a VEGA play... and it hasn't really gone up much.

Your SEPT 1220p still has $8.20. Let's assume the Aug expires, and the SEPT falls to $5.00. Still not a bad return 25%.

And consider the market hasn't really cooperated.

It's really hard to play diagonals as a look at my profit trade... because all the profit, THETA, (when VEGA isn't the play), comes rushing in the last three trading days.

Be patient... but be alert.

M~

 

It's very easy, using TOS. If you watch the video it really does a nice job explaining all the features. The videos are in the HELP tab.

You'll be glad you 'spent' the time.

M~

 

Thanks, Murray:

There's a lot of functionality, but I got what I need for now.

 

hi guys,

hot day in chicagoland!!

i'm wondering what opportunties(rolling, converting, etc) i have with the following trade i legged into a few weeks ago for 9.25 credit. xeo 560/570/580 aug. iron fly. thanks!!

 

If it is a put FLY it is OTM, if it is a Call FLY it is ITM. Either way, yu should have some profit on the table. The real question is what will happen going forward. COntiunued moves higher help you. A slide back to 570 which would be a huge pull back hurts you.

 

Which planet are you visiting today?