Haha. What can I say? I made a mistake in my model, and I calculated the expected return using put option. but look at this thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=63020. You can make $ with CTM credit spread. I believe credit spread is a directional play. I have a bearish view of the market, and so lets see how it goes. Risk management and proper adjustment are the keys to successful trading. BTW I agree that if I didn't make a mistake in my calculation, I would never open this position.
Question for the group -- I've got an Iron Condor with 1265 and 1300 short strikes...obviously the 1300 short strike is starting to make me nervous with some technical indicators showing bullish, however the market stopped at the 20-day ma and there are the following resistance points. resist. 1293.67 8 resist. 1286.41 8 resist. 1281.33 4 resist. 1273.06 6 http://tinyurl.com/zz8nz What is everyone's thoughts after the Fed meeting?? If Bernake buries his head in the sand to inflation and says no rate crank on 8/8, isn't the SPX going to snap-up quickly? Futures show +1.25 right now on OX login page. Oh and enjoy one of my fav JA pics http://tinyurl.com/kj9ar Rookie Rich
I'll stick my neck out a bit. Right now I'm saying there will be one more big jump. The expectation of a pause is really high right now and will probably get higher. The long/intermediate term picture is down though. I don't really care because I don't adjust simply because the short is threatened. For those who employ the adjust early strategy, I would follow OC's guidelines and trade cautiously. If I were trading that strategy I would probably opt for the 1310/1320. Strongest resistance seems to be at 1310. Personally I'm looking at the 1290/1295 if I can get a good credit.:eek:
Rich, based on my time with the SPX and I also trade IC's, you spend the whole month worrying about one short (in this case the 1300) then a few days before expiration...holy crap...market makes a bee line for the other short:eek: While I agree with Cache that we are heading up in the short term (few more trading days) I think all bets are off on the market when the Fed speaks. If you have a good overall credit on your IC then you just have to stomach the roller coaster ride making your plans for adjustments or rolls or whatever...and I'm sure with your offerings (Ja) you'll have everyone...even coach weighing in
mav, i have 12 years writing, spreading etc. so my question is based on that background. i am guilty of being a large span user, and intend on staying in this game indefinitely. so...... can you guide me to where to start the process of obtaining haircut status? i am clear that it may not be easy, but i am sure many here would appreciate your opinion on whether it is possible and how to start.
From what I have gathered on this board Maverick owns/runs/manages (not sure which) a prop firm. As you probably know, a prop firm is where you will be able to get haircut margin. I'm not familiar with any of them but I know if you do a quick search on ET you will find a number of them mentioned in different threads.
Actually on a surprise visit to Chicago I learned that Maverick is actually the coffee guy in the lobby of where a few prop firms are located To echo the below, a haircut can be gotten at a prop firm willing to give it so it just involves looking around to find the best one that suits your needs.
I have an August 1350-1280 put vertical debit spread that I got for 64 back when the SPX was much lower than it is now. I think that the market head lower, but I want to protect the upside that is now being threatened. Yesterday afternoon the the mid on a Sept 1260 (long) / August 1300 short was about $12.50. I am calculating that if the market continues to rise, but stays below 1300 then I just need the Sept 1260 to be at $1.50 for breakeven? (Above 1300 is still a problem, but it is a bigger problem with my current position.) It also seems that between 1280 and 1260 that the September 1260 long will be of comparable value to the August 1280 short especially if the VIX goes up. The only real downside to this adjustment is a big drop where the 1280-1260 reaches its maximum loss of 20. The full loss of 20 seems unlikely given that VIX would be up and the long is out a month and it will probably be possible to get out before the maximum is lost. Anyway this seems better than I would have thought and hence I must be missing something. Any comments would be appreciated. Thanks. Chip
Good point Coach, Have to make sure that its done waay below my margin available levels. Even with SPX i do not use my full margin available. Well not yet anyway