rydeman, I think given the current market and Heather's previous comment "the bear goes out the window" trading only bearish call spreads makes sense. I figure I have just over another week to consider putting any put positions so I'm in no rush. Regarding your formula if it is correct or not, I am not sure perhaps others here can comment. What I do is calculate the formula based upon SPX closing data over the last 12 months. I have Excel calculating one standard deviation, then I also calculate 1.5 and 2.
Thats very interesting Bob, you and I have had very similar experiences..except I went live (trading sm # of contracts)rather than virtual and yes Jan, Feb Mar were really easy months. May and June were certainly a challenge in all markets. Your right about there being premium in the RUT. When I looked at even 80pts out on the put side there was enough premium to make it interesting. I may try it again...perhaps I'll actually get filled Good luck in your trading!
BTC July1225str 28 STC Aug1225str 52 profit 22.4 add'l profit of 6.9 converting to calendar straddle (SPX Jul1225 straddle sold for 61.4)
Group; Back to the intent of my original post of yesterday, or the day before-they all seem to run together. Am I the only one who's nervous about the mideast situation? What are some thoughts on what we might see over the next few days in the market? Bob
right now it is simply an overated squirmish. crude prices will tell us if it will worsen. if crude hits 85 I could see the sp at 1180 quick.
Earnings, PPI, and Fed Minutes, reports this week should out-weigh what is happening in the Middleeast. I really think people are still complacent about $75/barrel oil. It's just changing people's driving or spending habits yet. Yes... the consumer numbers are slowing.... but they're still way above average. Hang on... this week should prove interesting. M~
Hey Murray...you were right about my SPX trade in June...I could have closed out even a couple of days at BE or better but as I looked at my trading journal I just didn't want to give up on my nice premium...then panicked the day before:eek: oh well I sure wish I did have a crystal ball on this situation in the Middle East....somehow I think it will continue to continue...
Just thought I would add a little input on the whole middle east thing. There will be something serious to happen over the next few years. Whether it is tomorrow or a year from now, no one knows. But history does repeat itself, mainly US history. You can see the world is tightening up, things are building up and paranoia is mounting. The thing with terror attacks is they are not a new thing anymore. If the S&P drops 10% or so in a week I would find it as a great buying oppurtunity, rather then panic sell. The market did not sell off this week because of Israel... It was just an excuse. They have a new one on CNBC for you everyday if you believe that stuff. Anyways, going forward I am with Coach. I would rather play the put side as I feel the downside is a lot easier to gauge than the upside. We have not reached a 10-14% correction in the S&P yet and I find it hard to be so optimistic about the future until getting one. We have also competed a picture perfect elliot wave on the S&P cash weekly chart, which also suggests some more downside. I am not an elliotician, just use some of the main, simple components that help with my anaylsis. As far as options I would buy any strike I could get my hands on below 1150 for august. We are not going to break that level, in fact I would buy futures for a long term hold if we got there. I am hoping to reach that level around October, but that is just a wish. Here is a chart of some recent support levels for next week on the S&P cash. 1207-1209, 1197-1200, and 1180-1188 are great buying oppurtunities. The only contigency is that we are entering a seasonal bearish cycle for the next 5-7 days. Still currently long Gold from 580-560 and Nat Gas futures. Buy any decent dip in gold and get some nat gas futures before the smart money comes in. Thanks for all the help in the options field, still learning everyday.
Hi Apex: I noticed in your profile that you list your occupation as Trader. Can you provide us with any more information. Are you a professional or someone who's given up their day job to become a trader. Sounds like your experience is mostly with futures. Anything you care to share is appreciated. Thanks.