I know Phil wants to keep this journal on topic. But he IS the one who keeps talking about feeling a bottom, nailing the bottom, and hitting the target... Plus, its summertime and JA hasn't made an appearance in many months.
Phil, that happens everytime the ES last print excluding the premium(3:15 central) is different than the SPX close(3:00 central). Remember when that bird flu news hit the market afterhours in june? There was a difference of like 6 points that day. Sorry if i am pointing out the obvious.
I never bothered to notice it before really so never new what caused them to go out of whack occasionally.
I'm trying to calculate my return on margin so far for the year. Each month I have had a different margin at risk. So, my initial attempt at calculating this is to sum the margin for each of the 7 months (I've already closed all positions opened prior to July expiration) and divide by 7 to get the average margin. Then I simply add up the profits/losses for each of the seven months and divide the sum by the average margin. Is this the right way?
that's my theory and I'm sticking to it nice move on the 1335 level by the way. that is about the intersect point of the trendline from 8/04 and it held. the trendline is also holding on the rut. the dow also retested the 10700 level low of last month to within a point but the sp didn't follow to 1220 this time. the nas comp came within 2 of its 10/04 low. all this to say we are at serious support. if it gives way then we are looking at large downside. I think it looks pretty bleak but that feeling of fear and the vix/vxo back to 19ish could mean it's time for bargain buyers to come in. sold the aug 1160s today do you know where I stand.
That is an easy way for a quick and dirty figure if you were not tracking it exaclty each month. I do it that way since the amount of margin I use each month changes so much I just generalize my return on margin.
It wont. It's an arb with the potential for more gains if we go ATM. Only risk is if the ES starts going for a discount to cash.
Rdemyan, With a week to go until expiration.... let's say .15 plus commissions is what it will cost you to close the position... in my opinion is like giving away a 10% profit for one week. Would you be the buyer of this .15 debit spread hoping to make 10% in one week? Here's how I like to rationalize it! If you think you can find a position which will make you more than 10% (almost guaranteed in your case) in the same time period.... then it's an easy question to answer..... sell or roll the position. (remember there is little risk in your current position) But, in reality, a pretty sure fire 10% for one week would be hard to find. So, unless you really need the money, it seem prudent to wait it out. There will be plenty of opportunities ahead... maybe even bigger and better ones.... M~